nothing will happen:) BP will move on to drill in other parts of the world (maybe name change and some Chinese investors/backers) US companies will take over some of the operations spill will be forgotten in couple of years (1989) but what armed invasion? you see tanks and para-troopers anywhere?:)
we will pull out of Afghanistan, they will go into civil war, UN will be sent ineffective, country will increase production of heroin and opium and go fundamentally religious, maybe only Japanese will be allowed to visit and do business (for their laptop batteries), and us? we will continue printing money putting next generation in debt unlike anything that world has seen before, first generation will be fine, subsequent will be like Greece Today