Steelers-Packers Super Bowl a Winner for the Markets?

Editor's Note: This content was originally published on Capital IQ by Richard Peterson.

In its annual fun, light-hearted look at 44 years of Super Bowl history and stock market returns, the financial data and analytics firm Capital IQ calculated the annualized average returns for the S&P 500 from January 1967 through December 31, 2010. Then they ran that against various aspects of the big game in a six-point analysis looking at teams involved, high-scoring versus low-scoring games, AFC versus NFC, city, home versus away games, and dome or no dome.

All data was compiled and finalized January 17 by Capital IQ. Super Bowl stats were taken from NFL.com.

What We Found

A win-win combo just for showing up: The potentially winning combination for the markets would be a Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers face-off. The average return if the Steelers represent the AFC in the big game is 25% and when the Packers represent the NFC the stock market has returned 24%.

Pittsburgh Steelers, AFC -- With a 6-1 record the Steelers have more Super Bowl victories than any other team. An appearance by Pittsburgh in the big game is good either way. The average return after a Steelers victory is a whopping 26%. When they lost in 1996 at Super Bowl XXX, the market return was 23%.

Green Bay Packers, NFC -- The team won the first two Super Bowls ever played and has a 3-1 overall record. The average return after a Packers victory is 23%, and for the two games when the Packers have lost, the average market return was 29%.

New York Jets, AFC -- Won the team's single appearance in Super Bowl III. The market fell by 8% that year.

Chicago Bears, NFC -- This team has a 1-1 record for its Super Bowl appearances in 1986 and 2007. Following the Bears’ win in Super Bowl XX the market rose by 19%, and even when they lost in Super Bowl XLI the market return gained by 6%.

Forty-Four Years of Super Bowl History and S&P 500 Market Returns Show:

•Returning Champs Are a Win for S&P 500: When a returning champion wins the Super Bowl, the average market return is 13%. Current teams with past Super Bowl wins are the Steelers, Packers, and Jets.

•Investor Outlook Not Sunny for Championship in Dallas: The game is in Dallas this year and the average returns in subsequent years after games played in Texas is negative 8%, which is the worst average of any of the seven states that have hosted the game.

•The Market Favors Higher Scoring Games: For Super Bowl games resulting in a final total combined score of at least 45 points, the stock market return 17% on average (based on 24 years). If the final combined score is less than 45, the average market return is 5%.

Trivia: Seven of the 10 lowest-scoring Super Bowls were won by AFC teams. Eight of the 10 highest-scoring Super Bowls were won by NFC teams. Over the past 44 years, the median combined score has been 45 points.

• Bullish on NFC: The market performs better on average after an NFC win (15%) versus an AFC win (7%). Interestingly, both the best return (38% in 1995) and the worst return (-37% in 2008) occurred after an NFC victory.

•Go Home: When the home team wins the average market return in the subsequent years is 17%.

•Dome Casts Shadow on Outlook: Cowboys Stadium is a domed stadium with a retractable roof. Thirty-one Super Bowl games have been played at a stadium with “no dome” and the average S&P 500 return for those years is 15%. Thirteen Super Bowls were played in a dome stadium; the average market return was 3%.

Disclaimer: This data is not intended to represent a fundamental analysis of market trends or historical data and in no way is intended to be the basis for any investment decisions whatsoever. This also does not represent an endorsement of any specific NFL team or league by Capital IQ

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