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Oh, the Odds, they are a-changing!


Not really.  Odds are odds and will never change.  But we might find another way to understand odds.

Take a 5/39 game.  Each number has a 1/39 or .0256 chance of being drawn.  So far, so good.  Now let us depart the world of certainty and pass over the border into the realm of random.  Let us make some assumptions which no one will ever prove true or false.  Let us think of the last drawn numbers.  Let us ignore the fact that one of those five numbers will repeat in the next draw around 50% of the time.  Let us reduce the chances of those numbers being drawn.

What might the ramifications of such a reduction entail?

For starters we must bear in mind that probability dictates that we use only two numbers, zero and one.  If zero means there is no way an event will occur and a one means the event is a certainty, we can not have thirty nine numbers whose probability will sum to one (1) or zero (0).  Therefore, if we reduce the .0256 per number by any amount, we must add that same difference to another number, keeping the total as close to one (1) as possible.

I think I will add that difference to those numbers "futherest out". 

Determing that amount will be the problem.  Mathematics will be of no help here for we are traveling in the world of Random, where everything is shrouded in a thick and heavy fog.  There are no roadmaps, no signs pointing toward the "truth".  There is not a Inn where a weary traveler might find rest, warmth, and respite.  No, there is nothing but fog and ourselves.  There is nothing for us to do but press onward, hoping for the best but prepared for the worst (whatever the heck that means).

Entry #23


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