So they are projecting fewer sunspots for the upcoming years then?

I think the linear is rising, so more sunblock needed.

there a is an early indication that solar cycle 24 may be lower than predicted, but we have to wait and see what june and july; possibly august is like.

there are three points of interest: 1 - the linear regression, 2 - waves 1 & 2 combined (30 to 110 year cycle), and wave 3 (the 11 year cycle).

you might think the linear regression would suggest the solar activity is going up and up, but that is an incorrect interpretation of the line.

the linear regression is only a static snap shot of the on going changes within the sun.

we'll post another blog about the linear regression and why it is actually suggesting the sun's activity will be lower.

waves 1 & 2 combined are the long cycles that are not seen and affect the overall activity.

they're more seen in the amplitude of the 11 year cycle.

wave 3 is the 11 year cycle and it looks like it will crest this year to possibly early next year.

this all depends on the observations for june, july and possibly august.