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Powerball lottery jackpot reaches $250 million

Topic closed. 94 replies. Last post 11 years ago by cps10.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
mid-Ohio
United States
Member #9
March 24, 2001
20017 Posts
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Posted: February 12, 2006, 3:20 pm - IP Logged

If you predicted the PowerBall or MegaMillions would not be won every drawing, you would be right 90% of the time regardless of the jackpot amount. 

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       

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    Portland Oregon
    United States
    Member #23305
    October 10, 2005
    47 Posts
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    Posted: February 12, 2006, 3:24 pm - IP Logged

    The odds of someone hitting last night's jackpot was about 33%.  That is the coverage of all possible combinations (146.1M). 

    The odds for Wednesday's drawing will be around 45-48%, depending on the amount of ticket sales.

    Does anybody know what the Powerball sales were for last night's drawing?  I am guessing about $60M or so.

    Puke

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      Sparta, NJ
      United States
      Member #18331
      July 9, 2005
      1977 Posts
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      Posted: February 12, 2006, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

      The odds of someone hitting last night's jackpot was about 33%.  That is the coverage of all possible combinations (146.1M). 

      WOW only 33%!  No wonder the rich don't play the lottery.

      Cheers

      |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

      I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

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        Sparta, NJ
        United States
        Member #18331
        July 9, 2005
        1977 Posts
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        Posted: February 12, 2006, 5:39 pm - IP Logged

        The odds for Wednesday's drawing will be around 45-48%, depending on the amount of ticket sales.

        Are those real numbers - 46-48% some one will win?  Math is not my forte.  With the snow, I can't get to PA today, so I guess I'll make a bet through PTS.  Hummm, EuroMillion is at $31-32 million.  Might get a couple of those also.  Maybe it will be a good luck snow!

         

         

         

         

        Cheers

        |||::> *'`*:-.,_,.-:*''*:--->>> Chewie  <<<---.*''*:-.,_,.-:*''* <:::|||

        I only trust myself - and that's a questionable choice

          cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
          The Carolinas - Charlotte
          United States
          Member #21627
          September 12, 2005
          4138 Posts
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          Posted: February 12, 2006, 6:02 pm - IP Logged

          cps10,

          Yo CPS10... just getting back to you.  WOW WOW WOW!  I can't believe you have spent almost a HUNDRED GRAND on the lottery in your lifetime!  Do you also gamble?  I am talking about Indian reservations, Vegas, Atlantic City... etc.

          By the way, are you a M/F?

          Did you see my correct prediction that last night's PB would roll ??

          Spam

          Yo WW!

          That includes everyone in my lottery club, not me personally.

          Yes, I do gamble otherwise...I go to Tunica about four times a year on the junkets to play blackjack and Caribbean Stud.

          I am Male.

          You were right about that roll...not sure how long that will last though. I think it will hit Wednesday. What do you think?

            mylollipop's avatar - Trek STLOGO6.png

            United States
            Member #24380
            October 21, 2005
            623 Posts
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            Posted: February 12, 2006, 10:51 pm - IP Logged

            cps10,

            Yo CPS10... just getting back to you.  WOW WOW WOW!  I can't believe you have spent almost a HUNDRED GRAND on the lottery in your lifetime!  Do you also gamble?  I am talking about Indian reservations, Vegas, Atlantic City... etc.

            By the way, are you a M/F?

            Did you see my correct prediction that last night's PB would roll ??

            Spam

            Somebody predicted it would roll and it did.  My gut was wrong this time. OogleDo you think this PB will roll until it becomes the biggest ever?

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              NY
              United States
              Member #23835
              October 16, 2005
              3544 Posts
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              Posted: February 13, 2006, 1:50 am - IP Logged

              The odds for Wednesday's drawing will be around 45-48%, depending on the amount of ticket sales.

              Are those real numbers - 46-48% some one will win? Math is not my forte. With the snow, I can't get to PA today, so I guess I'll make a bet through PTS. Hummm, EuroMillion is at $31-32 million. Might get a couple of those also. Maybe it will be a good luck snow!

               

               

               

               

              As an approximation, the numbers aren't bad, but they're a bit high. The cash increased by about $20 million for the last draw, so with 30% of sales going to the jackpot there should have been about 67 million tickets sold. If there were no duplicate tickets and everything else was random, then 67 million tickets out of 146 million combinations would mean there was about a 46% chance of a winner. For this draw they're expecting to sell about 83 million tickets, which would mean about a 52% chance of a winner.

              Of course there are duplicate tickets and not all numbers are picked randomly, so the actual probability of a winner will be lower. Even if all people picked their numbers randomly, once 25% of the combinations are picked 1 of every 4 tickets sold can be expected to be a duplicate for one that has previously been sold. When 33% have been picked it increases to 1 of 3 tickets sold. If I remembered more calculus I'd tell you exactly how many combinations would be used by 83 million random combinations. Without the calculus I'll call it 60 million and be close enough. Even if a billion tickets were sold there would be a lot of combinations that didn't get picked, so there would still be less than a 100% chance of a winner. Because not everybody picks their numbers randomly we can also expect 10,000 people who start with 1 then drop a row and fill in the 2nd box, then drop another row and fill in the 3rd box, and so on, picking the diagonal from upper left towards lower right. There are also 9,800 that do the same thing starting from the upper right. I don't know if all states use the same grid, so maybe not all of those people end up with the same numbers, but I'm not simply picking the 10,000 and 9800 out of thin air. Many years ago the NY lottery ran newspaper ads telling people to stop doing it, because about 20,000 people were doing it, and that was with perhaps a million tickest sold for a typical draw. If those numbers win, even with $1450 million cash to share, only some of the old winners will have enough to retire. Of course, several of the younger winners will tell their bosses what they really think of them before finding out that they can't afford to retire. It's a safe bet that there will also be thousands who play the numbers from their fortune cookie, but those who paid attention know that can result in over 100 people playing the same combination, so 100,000 people playing fortune cookie numbers may only use 1000 combinations. When it's all finished, 83 million tickets might use about 55 million of the 146 million combinations. That means that perhaps 38% of the possible combinations will be played, and 62% won't be played.

              If the random numbers that are drawn look random and have a random distribution then there's about a 38% probability of a winner, and a slight chance of multiple winners. If the winning numbers have anything that resembles a pattern, or otherwise matches with peoples' methods for picking non-random combinations then there' s a higher chance of a winner and probably multiple winners.

              Going with basic probability, I'm calling for another rollover to an advertised jackpot of 360. Being optimistic I'm planning for actual sales pushing it to 362 with another rollover(about a 30% chance) to the 387 I predicted in an earlier post.

              It will have to roll past 370 to be the biggest Powerball prize and a bit more than 380 to beat the recent Megamillions prize. Jack Whittaker's+/- 180 million pre-tax cash is the most that Powerball has ever paid, and at the current rate 180 in cash will result in an advertsised annuity of about 371.

                dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

                United States
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                September 17, 2003
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                Posted: February 13, 2006, 2:04 am - IP Logged

                If it rolls it should hit 365 (the cap). Actual sales would push it to around 370-375 so a small prize increase to those hitting 5 + 0. If it rolls than it would easily hit 390 (again the cap) with a much larger bonus to those hitting 5 + 0. There is no point in playing powerplay if it hits 390 since the added bonus would already be very large.

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                  Tennessee
                  United States
                  Member #7853
                  October 15, 2004
                  11350 Posts
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                  Posted: February 13, 2006, 8:28 am - IP Logged

                  so do you think a quick pick will win it or someone choosing their own numbers?

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                    Greenwich, CT
                    United States
                    Member #4793
                    May 24, 2004
                    1822 Posts
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                    Posted: February 13, 2006, 8:34 am - IP Logged

                    If it rolls it should hit 365 (the cap). Actual sales would push it to around 370-375 so a small prize increase to those hitting 5 + 0. If it rolls than it would easily hit 390 (again the cap) with a much larger bonus to those hitting 5 + 0. There is no point in playing powerplay if it hits 390 since the added bonus would already be very large.

                    An extra $200,000 to $800,000 is worth playing for anyday!

                      wizeguy's avatar - animaniacs04

                      United States
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                      May 10, 2005
                      416 Posts
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                      Posted: February 13, 2006, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

                      justxploring

                      They have that rule in some places in South Carolina. Especially on the border where people don't have lotteries or don't have a specific game, the lines get very long, so that is the case here as well. I haven't seen a limit on number of tix purchased, but I have seen that you must get QP's in certain instances. I go about 5 miles down the road into a town called Fort Mill where there are no lines, and I can buy as many as I please and use my lotto club's numbers with no hassle.

                      hi neighbor Thumbs Up

                        cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
                        The Carolinas - Charlotte
                        United States
                        Member #21627
                        September 12, 2005
                        4138 Posts
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                        Posted: February 13, 2006, 1:30 pm - IP Logged

                        wizeguy - where are you located?

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                          Bethesda, Maryland
                          United States
                          Member #16901
                          June 6, 2005
                          446 Posts
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                          Posted: February 13, 2006, 5:21 pm - IP Logged

                           

                          What would $120.1M cash look like?

                           

                          “……
                          And if $120.1 million is just too hard to imagine, here are some fun facts about what $120.1 million looks like.  Measured in one-hundred-dollar bills, $120.1 million:

                           Weighs 2,648 pounds. It would take 1.3 one-ton trucks to carry all the cash.
                           Would line up, end to end, for 113.7 miles, crossing the US almost .04 times.
                           Would stack all the way down to the deepest ocean depth
                          .01 times. The Challenger Deep is 7 miles deep; a stack of 120.1 million one-hundred-dollar bills is .09 miles high.
                           Would fill up 16.7 boxes of copier paper
                          …”


                          (Bold numbers are recalculated proportionally (also, $1:$100) from Powerball Press Release dated May 25, 2005

                          http://www.powerball.com/content/pressreleases/show_release.asp?release_id=2131)
                           

                          Good luck to all members!

                          Doesn't matter:

                          No one is going to see $120 Million in CASH.

                          That would be the estimated cash option before taxes.....

                          so, after Federal and state( if applicable) taxes , more like $80 million or so...

                          I already know how to measure $80 Million :

                          It would fit into my bank account(s) very nicely !!    Hurray!

                           

                          Good Luck,

                           DD

                          2/11/2006

                          "DD".......you are always one of a few very select group on here, that keeps a smile on my face. Seriously....a BIG Lurkingw/popcorn of course....and right now that smile has turned to Hyper

                          lololololol.....ok now....that said.....what did you say your Bank Account Number was ????loololololo

                          Happy Saturday to you too, Libra !!

                          Thanks for the kind words.    Back at'cha !!!!! Thumbs Up

                           

                          My bank account number is *** *** *** **** .

                          Wonder why it didn't come out right when I typed the numbers in ?

                          Oh well....

                          Lets get ready for that drawing tonight !!!!!!!!

                          DD

                          Hi "DD".........2/13/2006

                          lololololol.....lovin it.....lololol

                          You know w/all the spy systems, and hackers out here today, all I need to do is promise any one of them to go in for ."half the account"....even .10cents....and your account number  is mine......lolololol.......

                          After all, I'm your "little buddy".....lololol

                          (BTW)....What happened on Saturday night "DD"....I thought you already purchased the winning numbers??.....what, you mean no party??......

                            Avatar
                            Bethesda, Maryland
                            United States
                            Member #16901
                            June 6, 2005
                            446 Posts
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                            Posted: February 13, 2006, 5:34 pm - IP Logged

                            Libra

                            Well, let's see....200 tickets a week x 52 weeks = 10400 tickets/yr

                            We've been playing almost 9 yrs = approx 93600 tickets total give or take a couple thousand.

                            Now, 93600/146 million = 1/15000 I think...LOL

                            Now, we have won $100 many times, and even as much as 1,000 in one draw, but thats about it.

                            Odds are still way ahead of us. But we keep fighting for another day! :)

                            "CPS".

                            ......After seeing the results of Saturday nights drawing, I guess you're right about the odds, but I would love to read that eventually you and the guys won the BIG PRIZE.....really I would....You are apparently a very nice person, a true gambling man....lololol.....(just teasing)...but someone who in my opinion deserves to win.......

                            (BTW)  All that rain and sleet turned to Snow, can you believe that????? So, I never purchased any POWERBALL TICKETS.....I guess it's just as well.......Now, I'll work on my number series again, as $$$$$300,00000000 looks quite inviting......

                              Avatar
                              Bethesda, Maryland
                              United States
                              Member #16901
                              June 6, 2005
                              446 Posts
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                              Posted: February 13, 2006, 5:48 pm - IP Logged

                              The odds of someone hitting last night's jackpot was about 33%.  That is the coverage of all possible combinations (146.1M). 

                              WOW only 33%!  No wonder the rich don't play the lottery.

                              2/13/2006

                              lololooolol....and I see you are just being your true sadonic self......lolololol

                              oh yeah....where did all that snow come from????....did you send it here to MD to keep me from purchasing PB Tickets????