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Powerball lottery to have larger jackpot, but harder to win

Topic closed. 32 replies. Last post 8 years ago by Texas Joey.

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Urbandale, IA
United States
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November 11, 2004
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Posted: December 29, 2008, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

The jackpot hits will about the same; 12-15 per year, but a bit higher, on average.  The big changes are many more (over 3.5 million) wins per year at the lower levels and instead of about 24 hits at $1 million for the Match 5 prize, Powerball should see about 100 $1 million prizes (in cash) per year for the Match 5 (with Power Play). 

    GamerMom's avatar - tails

    United States
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    April 21, 2008
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    Posted: December 29, 2008, 8:33 pm - IP Logged

    I'll join you, JAP69Green laughGreen laugh

    195 million is about 64% of the 305 million population of the United States, including children, people in prison, patients in comas, etc.

    The bottom line is - someone will win.   So will you be that very lucky person the Lottery fairy flies over and sprinkles her (or his) dust on, or will you be 1 or 2 numbers off for the rest of your life?

    i think the lottery fairy takes a poo when she flies over me...Crying

      justxploring's avatar - villiarna
      Wandering Aimlessly
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      Posted: December 29, 2008, 8:41 pm - IP Logged

      are the odds for winning the lower tier prizes decent???

      Depends what you mean by "decent."

       

      2nd prize of $200,000  = 1:5.1M  (extra dollar for Powerplay guarantees $1 million)

      $10,000 prize = 1:723K  (Fantasy-5 odds are 1:376K)

      $100 prize = 1:19K

       

      Next time you buy a ticket, look for one of the pamphlets on Powerball.  Should be near the Lottery terminal.

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        January 23, 2005
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        Posted: December 29, 2008, 9:42 pm - IP Logged

        This story was out for a while but not mentioned much until this past month. Everytime a big State joins there is a matrix change with more balls and tougher odds for the jackpot. I get burnout when the jackpot keeps increasing but I don't even get 1 or 2 # and have to make another run to Pennsylvania. 10M is life-changing enough and I'd rather see a 10M or 20M or so winner every few drawings than one 300M winner or two per year. Now we can say, Oh *&#!^ it's in Florida (unless you're in Florida). Otherwise it's nice to have a new State added. The way the Jackpot would get to 400M is if there is no "fever" effect so that there are not as many people playing each time. When people get excited then it gets won very soon. The upside is FL is the last big State I think that will join either PB or MM so there are going to be less excuses later on to monkey with the matrix.

        Kiss your algorithms goodbye for a few months or more. Your program will think i.e. that "59 never came out" so it won't know what to do with the extra #s, or will "Perform an Illegal Operation" when a past Bonus Ball is outside the new matrix.

          ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
          Idaho
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          November 21, 2007
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          Posted: December 30, 2008, 12:25 am - IP Logged

          This story was out for a while but not mentioned much until this past month. Everytime a big State joins there is a matrix change with more balls and tougher odds for the jackpot. I get burnout when the jackpot keeps increasing but I don't even get 1 or 2 # and have to make another run to Pennsylvania. 10M is life-changing enough and I'd rather see a 10M or 20M or so winner every few drawings than one 300M winner or two per year. Now we can say, Oh *&#!^ it's in Florida (unless you're in Florida). Otherwise it's nice to have a new State added. The way the Jackpot would get to 400M is if there is no "fever" effect so that there are not as many people playing each time. When people get excited then it gets won very soon. The upside is FL is the last big State I think that will join either PB or MM so there are going to be less excuses later on to monkey with the matrix.

          Kiss your algorithms goodbye for a few months or more. Your program will think i.e. that "59 never came out" so it won't know what to do with the extra #s, or will "Perform an Illegal Operation" when a past Bonus Ball is outside the new matrix.

          Arkansas may join Powerball.

          "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

            Texas Joey's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg
            Katy, Tx
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            December 3, 2008
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            Posted: December 30, 2008, 9:52 am - IP Logged

            I don't have State Income Tax either and I live in Texas..  We have the Mega Million game and I think that one is big enough for all of us.  I have to go to Louisiana to get Power Ball tickets.. Never have won anything on it yet!  Have won with the Mega Millions though!  Lots of Luck Playing.

            Happy New YearLOL

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              New Member

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              November 19, 2008
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              Posted: December 30, 2008, 10:01 am - IP Logged

              This is all about sales, folks.  Believe it or not, sales remain fairly consistent until the Powerball jackpot reaches $200 million.  At that point, with each rollover, the sales increase.  That is what they're shooting for here, yet trying to keep the appeal for folks who realize they probably won't ever hit the jackpot, but still want a decent shot at some of the lower tier prizes.  Given that Florida's population is now joining the game, that's potentially millions more combinations that could have been bought under the old system, meaning jackpot winners were more likely.  They don't want that.

                barbos's avatar - gold bar-and-cash1.jpg
                California
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                Posted: December 31, 2008, 2:57 am - IP Logged

                  Interesting they don't forget to say

                "The starting jackpot will jump from $15 million to $20 million, the world's largest starting jackpot for a lotto-style game." 

                  but fail to mention the game will have the lowest in the world chance to win with the odds proposed.

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                  Tampa,FL
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                  March 13, 2008
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                  Posted: December 31, 2008, 8:55 am - IP Logged

                  I LIVE IN Tampa Florida.......and COUNTING Down the days till Powerball....debating with roommate and good friend if we will pick a set of numbers and stick with them or do Quick Picks!!! Roll Eyes

                   

                     At any rate,  I always enjoyed playing it when visiting thos states...and the fact it will be drawn here In Orlando...only learned that now....YES!!!!

                   

                   

                        So GOOD LUCK To all ....... And HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYBODY!!!!! Party

                   

                   

                    WTanner's avatar - Lottery-029.jpg
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                    WVC, UT
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                    Posted: January 1, 2009, 12:41 am - IP Logged

                    I agree jim695 they change the matrix so people won't be able to use that data as effectively as they were doing. With only 348 drawings under their belt they must think people are getting a hang on the number flow and by changing the matrix will cause some of the players to starting a new run at a system.

                    While i don't think 348 drawings is enough history for a great system it was just starting to show some of its numbers patterns or relationships to other digits.

                    Powerballs previous matrix changes were done in favor of bigger pots and because people were winning smaller pots more often. Oh and because Mega also changed their matrix.

                    I agree with both of you.  I hope someone wins (ME) on Saturday B4 the change, better odds 4 us all.  LOL

                    IDA-UT  misswent GLAHyper

                      Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                      Indiana
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                      January 7, 2007
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                      Posted: January 1, 2009, 12:56 am - IP Logged

                      It rolled again! $90,000,000. If nobody wins Saturday(which I hope I do), we'll have a nice starting jackpot for the new matrix.

                      Gonna win.Big Smile

                        dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                        Posted: January 1, 2009, 10:19 pm - IP Logged

                          Interesting they don't forget to say

                        "The starting jackpot will jump from $15 million to $20 million, the world's largest starting jackpot for a lotto-style game." 

                          but fail to mention the game will have the lowest in the world chance to win with the odds proposed.

                        No the worst odds belong to Italy's SuperEnalotto with 1:622 million odds. Amazingly someone won it recently proving that no matter how bad the odds someone can still win.

                          justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                          Wandering Aimlessly
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                          Posted: January 1, 2009, 11:01 pm - IP Logged

                          No the worst odds belong to Italy's SuperEnalotto with 1:622 million odds. Amazingly someone won it recently proving that no matter how bad the odds someone can still win.

                          This is true.  However, you can say that about anything. 

                          Example:  I'm 57 and I've never known anyone who contracted Whipple's Disease.  (I once heard of it on the show "House") An estimated 1,000 cases a year have been reported worldwide, so it isn't as rare as some conditions like primary amebic meningoencephalitis, caused when an amoeba enters your nose and infects the brain.  So let us assume that in 2009 there will be 12 to 14 PB winners.  That means you have a significantly better shot at contracting an extremely rare medical condition than winning a Powerball jackpot. 

                          Wink

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                            United States
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                            January 23, 2005
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                            Posted: January 1, 2009, 11:28 pm - IP Logged

                            I beg to differ.. if you include contests that aren't the Lottery, but with money prizes.. ever read the odds on the McDonald's Monopoly or the Publisher's Clearinghouse? I remember in McDonald's to win the $1M top prize (annuity only) it was something like a BILLION to one! Yet people even won that. Maybe in Italy the tickets are cheaper so they play 3 times as many? I remember when in PA you got 3 for a dollar and the odds were 100M to 1 per line but per dollar it was ~33M to 1.

                            I have beaten odds of 1/2-million to one using only 2 sets. A good algorithm if it exists can tip the odds.

                            Also remember that the odds are based on buying only ONE ticket ever. Think of it this way: the cost went up instead of the odds... you now have to pay $2 or $4(PowerPlay) for the same or better chance than in the old matrix. Compensate by using sharper algorithms with less sets of numbers but better quality. For the next few months, use your own QP system to pick fairly from the fields, until there is some new drawing data to study. Don't play too many until then.

                            Whatever the odds are has to be divided by how many you're ever going to play total. If you play $1 per day or $2 PP during 2009 the real odds are less than 1M to 1!

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                              NY
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                              Posted: January 2, 2009, 4:12 am - IP Logged

                              "Given that Florida's population is now joining the game, that'spotentially millions more combinations that could have been boughtunder the old system, meaning jackpot winners were more likely.  Theydon't want that."

                              That's not quite right. If they had brought in Florida but kept the same odds, winners would be just as likely, since winning is a function of the odds. More people playing would have resulted in winners being more frequent. The jackpots would have grown faster, and been won sooner, so they might have had a couple more winners per year. I doub they saw that as a problem, because sales wouldn't have gone down. In fact, they might even have gone up a bit (for each state: overall sales would obviously go up), becaue more frequent winners might have resulted in a perception that the game was easier to win.

                              The  important difference is in how big the average jackpots are. By adding a state and increasing the odds they get the best of both. Another state  means more sales, so the jackpots should grow  more quickly, and the higher odds means they should get bigger (on average).