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Odds are, stunning coincidences can be expected

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 7 years ago by savagegoose.

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NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
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Posted: October 1, 2009, 11:34 am - IP Logged

" Ever consider writing a book?"

Thanks. I may write well, but that's a lot different than being a writer, and it's alot different than being a story teller.

"yet 3 statiticians all report diifferent odds?"

I read an article saying there are at least two diferent lotteries in Bulgaria. Early on I was under the impression that the one in question was 6/49, but another article says it's 6/42. That accounts for the 1 in 14 and 1 in 5.2 million figures. Nobody seems to know where the 1 in 4 million figure came from.

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
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    March 24, 2001
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    Posted: October 1, 2009, 12:59 pm - IP Logged

    "...a widely held misconception that there is a system or order that makes sense of random processes. Some lottery players believe that winning lottery combinations can be reasoned out, or that a recent set of winning numbers is less likely to win again than any other combination."

    I use a system to pick MegaMillions combinations but it's based on the history of previous MM drawings and not on a belief that random has a certain order or behaves in a predictable manner.  So far no combination of five has ever repeated and only a few combinations of fours have but less than .034% of its possible 5 number combinations have been drawn during the entire history of the game including its BigGame drawings.  From studying the drawings results of other pick5 games like Buckeye5 and Rolling Cash5, I expect this will change since it happened in those games after .25% of their possible combinations were drawn but even then it didn't happen very often.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

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      NY
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      Posted: October 1, 2009, 3:23 pm - IP Logged

      "I use a system to pick MegaMillions combinations but it's based on thehistory of previous MM drawings and not on a belief that random has acertain order or behaves in a predictable manner."

      Then what point do you see in using the "history of previous MM drawings" other than engaging in math for purely recreational reasons? The rest of your post seems to indicate a belief that sensible choices "can be reasoned out" based on  past history.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
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        March 24, 2001
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        Posted: October 1, 2009, 3:47 pm - IP Logged

        "I use a system to pick MegaMillions combinations but it's based on thehistory of previous MM drawings and not on a belief that random has acertain order or behaves in a predictable manner."

        Then what point do you see in using the "history of previous MM drawings" other than engaging in math for purely recreational reasons? The rest of your post seems to indicate a belief that sensible choices "can be reasoned out" based on  past history.

        There really is no point other than I like picking my own numbers and playing the lottery is recreational for me.  Past history for me is as good as a hunch or any other way to pick a few lines to play.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          Perfecttiming2's avatar - redcross

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          Posted: October 3, 2009, 10:37 pm - IP Logged

          Odds are odds are odds. The expert statisticians can hardly agree on what the odds are on any given probability or possibility. The one thing they seem to agree on however, is that your odds on a 6 number game are virtually zero.

          So who bets money on a proposition where you have virtually NO chance of success? Us, because no matter what the odds are we know that at some point in time SOMEONE is going to beat those odds and it just might be one of us. The only odds that matter to us are that the odds of winning are only truly zero if you are among those who are too wise to bet against impossible odds.

          So our dollar in the pot gives us VIRTUALLY no chance while a dollar saved gives us ABSOLUTELY no chance.

          Our dollar in the kitty gives us the same odds as everyone else with a dollar in the kitty and one of those dollars invested IS going to make someone very wealthy.

          There are a lot of multi-millionaires out there who may take exception to the refrain that the lottery is a tax on stupid people.

          I can guarantee one thing. Every drawing there are a certain number of people that buy tickets. One or more of those people is going to win millions. It is JUST as likely to be one of us as it is anybody. That's good enough odds for me to kick in a buck.

          Really good post....thanks for sharing!!!!

            savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
            adelaide sa
            Australia
            Member #37136
            April 11, 2006
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            Posted: October 7, 2009, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

            yeah i know a  few people who smuggly tell me lotto is a stupid way to spend my money. and

            they " never buy lotto "

            im sure they'll be at the head of the queue to get handouts if I ever win a  large amount to.

             

            almost as bad as the people i know who dont even buy tickets and bang on about how they will give everyone a share.

            2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

            keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297