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# \$330 MILLION: Mega Millions lottery jackpot nears record high

Topic closed. 125 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Coin Toss.

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light on my feet
United States
Member #356
May 20, 2002
2744 Posts
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 Posted: January 4, 2011, 10:09 pm - IP Logged

I lot of jackpots are won by groups. Do you think those groups only bought 5 tickets?

however,  proportionally speaking,  that still has hardly ever happened in comparison to the length of history of the game,  vs how many "kinds" of winners have won.

i.e. single winners who have won,  and spilled the beans about how much they played,  very rarely ever saying they spent more than \$5.

without checking, i 'think' there are way more jackpots won by a single person,  or two seperate winners splitting the jackpot,  rather than groups winning.

i don't suppose anyone wants to check the history on single winners vs groups,  to support the more tickets the better chances "theory"

"i am .........."meant to"

P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

until further notice,  it's  france everyday

NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3474 Posts
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 Posted: January 4, 2011, 10:51 pm - IP Logged

I think you've completely missed the point. 1, 5 or 100 tickets is very much like the QP vs self-pick argument. QP's account for the majority of winners not because any individual QP ticket is more likely to win, but because they account for the majority of tickets being played.

If player A plays 100 tickets and player B plays 5 tickets then player A is definitely 20 times more likely to win than player B.  At the same time, if 99 people play 5 tickets for every person who plays 100 tickets then we'd have 495 tickets played by (99) people who only played 5 tickets and 100 tickets played by one player who played 100 tickets. Only 1% of those players would have played 100 tickets, but that 1 player would account for 16.8% of tickets played, so we would expect that player to win 16.8 % of the prizes. The other 99% of players would only account for 83.2% of prizess because they would only have played 83.2% of tickets.

Extending that to all players over time would mean that 16.8% of jackpots would be won by the 1% who play 100 tickets, while the remaining 99% who play one ticket would only win 83.2% of the jackpots. Of course that's a simplification, and  people play various numbers of tickets, but the  basic principle will hold true. A greater percentage of those who play 100 or more tickets will win than the percentage of those who play 20 or fewer. That most winners (presumably) played less than 20 tickets  is because the  vast majority of players only play a modest number of tickets.

Of course that's not an argument to spend large amounts. The overwhelming majority of people will lose more than they win, so as a general rule the more you play the more you'll lose.

Member #68663
December 27, 2008
260 Posts
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 Posted: January 4, 2011, 10:59 pm - IP Logged

however,  proportionally speaking,  that still has hardly ever happened in comparison to the length of history of the game,  vs how many "kinds" of winners have won.

i.e. single winners who have won,  and spilled the beans about how much they played,  very rarely ever saying they spent more than \$5.

without checking, i 'think' there are way more jackpots won by a single person,  or two seperate winners splitting the jackpot,  rather than groups winning.

i don't suppose anyone wants to check the history on single winners vs groups,  to support the more tickets the better chances "theory"

visiondude, I will try to "prove" you wrong. My group bought 145 tickets.

Good luck all.

Member #68663
December 27, 2008
260 Posts
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 Posted: January 5, 2011, 1:03 am - IP Logged

That would be something if a Canadian lottery group won the jackpot.

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10351 Posts
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 Posted: January 5, 2011, 1:23 am - IP Logged

"Maybe you know the differmce between a fairy tale and a war story."

Let me guess. Cinderella lived happily ever after and you suffered a traumatic brain injury?

Nice attempted slur, obviously you don't know the difference.

Speaks volumes.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
Member #30470
January 17, 2006
10351 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 5, 2011, 6:14 pm - IP Logged

I just hope everybody who bet heavier than usual because of this odds reduction theory learned something.

Good Luck everybody next time around.

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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