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$330 MILLION: Mega Millions lottery jackpot nears record high

Topic closed. 125 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Coin Toss.

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visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
light on my feet
United States
Member #356
May 20, 2002
2744 Posts
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Posted: January 4, 2011, 10:09 pm - IP Logged

I lot of jackpots are won by groups. Do you think those groups only bought 5 tickets?

a most excellant point.  i hadn't thought about that Thumbs Up

however,  proportionally speaking,  that still has hardly ever happened in comparison to the length of history of the game,  vs how many "kinds" of winners have won.

  i.e. single winners who have won,  and spilled the beans about how much they played,  very rarely ever saying they spent more than $5.

without checking, i 'think' there are way more jackpots won by a single person,  or two seperate winners splitting the jackpot,  rather than groups winning. 

which of course would again support my "your wasting your money buying extra tickets"....lol

i don't suppose anyone wants to check the history on single winners vs groups,  to support the more tickets the better chances "theory"

            "i am .........."meant to"       

P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

         until further notice,  it's  france everyday

    Avatar
    NY
    United States
    Member #23835
    October 16, 2005
    3474 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: January 4, 2011, 10:51 pm - IP Logged

    I think you've completely missed the point. 1, 5 or 100 tickets is very much like the QP vs self-pick argument. QP's account for the majority of winners not because any individual QP ticket is more likely to win, but because they account for the majority of tickets being played.

    If player A plays 100 tickets and player B plays 5 tickets then player A is definitely 20 times more likely to win than player B.  At the same time, if 99 people play 5 tickets for every person who plays 100 tickets then we'd have 495 tickets played by (99) people who only played 5 tickets and 100 tickets played by one player who played 100 tickets. Only 1% of those players would have played 100 tickets, but that 1 player would account for 16.8% of tickets played, so we would expect that player to win 16.8 % of the prizes. The other 99% of players would only account for 83.2% of prizess because they would only have played 83.2% of tickets.

    Extending that to all players over time would mean that 16.8% of jackpots would be won by the 1% who play 100 tickets, while the remaining 99% who play one ticket would only win 83.2% of the jackpots. Of course that's a simplification, and  people play various numbers of tickets, but the  basic principle will hold true. A greater percentage of those who play 100 or more tickets will win than the percentage of those who play 20 or fewer. That most winners (presumably) played less than 20 tickets  is because the  vast majority of players only play a modest number of tickets.

    Of course that's not an argument to spend large amounts. The overwhelming majority of people will lose more than they win, so as a general rule the more you play the more you'll lose.


      Canada
      Member #68663
      December 27, 2008
      260 Posts
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      Posted: January 4, 2011, 10:59 pm - IP Logged

      a most excellant point.  i hadn't thought about that Thumbs Up

      however,  proportionally speaking,  that still has hardly ever happened in comparison to the length of history of the game,  vs how many "kinds" of winners have won.

        i.e. single winners who have won,  and spilled the beans about how much they played,  very rarely ever saying they spent more than $5.

      without checking, i 'think' there are way more jackpots won by a single person,  or two seperate winners splitting the jackpot,  rather than groups winning. 

      which of course would again support my "your wasting your money buying extra tickets"....lol

      i don't suppose anyone wants to check the history on single winners vs groups,  to support the more tickets the better chances "theory"

      visiondude, I will try to "prove" you wrong. My group bought 145 tickets.

      Good luck all.


        Canada
        Member #68663
        December 27, 2008
        260 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: January 5, 2011, 1:03 am - IP Logged

        That would be something if a Canadian lottery group won the jackpot.

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
          United States
          Member #30470
          January 17, 2006
          10351 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: January 5, 2011, 1:23 am - IP Logged

          "Maybe you know the differmce between a fairy tale and a war story."

          Let me guess. Cinderella lived happily ever after and you suffered a traumatic brain injury?

          Nice attempted slur, obviously you don't know the difference.

          Speaks volumes.

          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

          Lep

          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
            Zeta Reticuli Star System
            United States
            Member #30470
            January 17, 2006
            10351 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: January 5, 2011, 6:14 pm - IP Logged

            I just hope everybody who bet heavier than usual because of this odds reduction theory learned something.

            Good Luck everybody next time around.

            Lep

            Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

            Lep

            There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.