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$550 MILLION: Powerball jackpot now more than a half-billion dollars

Topic closed. 85 replies. Last post 4 years ago by Boney526.

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whiteballz's avatar - Lottery-015.jpg
Nutley, New Jersey
United States
Member #131058
August 1, 2012
875 Posts
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Posted: May 17, 2013, 12:26 pm - IP Logged

Just When To $600 Million, $700 Million looking like its in reach...

$600 million annuity or $376.9 million lump sum. I wonder if Todd is getting worn out with all these updates LOL

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    ShowMeTheMoney$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg

    United States
    Member #140525
    March 21, 2013
    119 Posts
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    Posted: May 17, 2013, 12:28 pm - IP Logged

     Maybe it's my pipe dream but even if I become the sole winner....

     I will still eat at Chipotle.

     I will still shop at Costco.

     I will drive a Toyota Sienna.

     I will live in a townhome in a gated middle-class community.

    I love Costco!  I would still go there if I had over $200 million dollars in the bank.  The pizza and hot dogs are inexpensive and tasty.  Inside there's a pharmacy, bakery, butcher, eye glass and photo departments, the frozen section, and more.  It's like a supermarket and more.  I like browsing their jewelry and clothing areas.  I like their steaks and variety of juices.  They have fun outdoor stuff like hammocks, furniture, storage sheds, barbecues, club houses, and more.  There is even dog food and dog beds.  And, don't forget all the free samples!  Costco is AWESOME!  I could easily spend hours there if I had the money! Banana

      Arrowhead's avatar - underground
      Ohio
      United States
      Member #120754
      December 27, 2011
      294 Posts
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      Posted: May 17, 2013, 12:33 pm - IP Logged

       Maybe it's my pipe dream but even if I become the sole winner....

       I will still eat at Chipotle.

       I will still shop at Costco.

       I will drive a Toyota Sienna.

       I will live in a townhome in a gated middle-class community.

      How about Kohl's? Love shopping at Kohl's. Excellent value.

        ShowMeTheMoney$'s avatar - Lottery-050.jpg

        United States
        Member #140525
        March 21, 2013
        119 Posts
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        Posted: May 17, 2013, 12:44 pm - IP Logged

        How about Kohl's? Love shopping at Kohl's. Excellent value.

        Kohl's, Target, CVS, Home Depot, Disneyland, Johnny Rocket's, Ruby's Diner (they have great Oreo milkshakes!), Red Robin, El Pollo Loco, McDonalds, and In & Out........Those are fun places to go to even if I were super rich. Banana

          Avatar
          Toronto
          Canada
          Member #138397
          January 26, 2013
          179 Posts
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          Posted: May 17, 2013, 12:44 pm - IP Logged

          "300 million tickets selected randomly would use about 130 million of the possible combinations, leaving about 45 million of them unplayed. That's 25% of them, so the chances of a rollover should be about 1 in 4."

           

          I have no idea how you calculated that (Poisson distribution???) but the Wizard of Odds came up with the same answer, that there's about a 25% chance of a rollover.

           

          Anyway, the only reason I mention it is because he estimates that if it isn't won this drawing, and if it goes over 1 billion for next week, that there will be on average a 17 WAY split with the chance of no winners at 1 in 27 MILLION.  Personally, I think his analysis is flawed this time - but still.  There's a chance this jackpot won't be won - in fact, it's something like 20-25% while next time, but if that happens, we'll see a lottery ticket buying frenzy we've never seen before.

           

          So, that being said, it's actually probably better to play this drawing than it will be if it rolls over again.  If there's another rollover, expect to see a split between multiple people winning the biggest jackpot in history.

          Um... a 17 way split on average?

           

          You'd need to buy 17 * 175 million tickets for that O_O.... if a dollar from every ticket goes towards the annuity value, then that would mean an increase

          of 2.975 billion in the jackpot... adding that to the 600 mil and its 3.575 billion... I actually wouldn't mind splitting that 17 ways too much. 

           

          Or did I misunderstand something?

            dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
            Oklahoma
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            Member #82391
            November 12, 2009
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            Posted: May 17, 2013, 12:49 pm - IP Logged

            I didn't realize I rated it at all :( my phone is so touchy.... Especially when I try to get it from my 18 month olds hands... I have not a bad thing to say.about anything.... Otherwise I wouldn't b here!!!!!!!!

            You are not alone ashabug it happen to me once I was trying to rate from my phone and rated a 4 instead of a 5. Bang Head

            I Love Pink & Green 1908

              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
              New Jersey
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              October 18, 2010
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              Posted: May 17, 2013, 1:23 pm - IP Logged

              Um... a 17 way split on average?

               

              You'd need to buy 17 * 175 million tickets for that O_O.... if a dollar from every ticket goes towards the annuity value, then that would mean an increase

              of 2.975 billion in the jackpot... adding that to the 600 mil and its 3.575 billion... I actually wouldn't mind splitting that 17 ways too much. 

               

              Or did I misunderstand something?

              Well, the Jackpot as they show it is a (conservative) estimate of wha they expect it to be by the time sales close down.  It increases as sales increase because they have to be conservative, as they are advertizing a jackpot bigger than the funds they've already gotten from ticket sales.  So they try to estimate how much they think it will sell, and make the advertized jackpot less because nobodies going to complain if they win MORE than the advertized amount, they would if they got less.

               

              I really didn't think about it before posting, but after looking at it I think this is what he meant.  He's estimating if they advertize a jackpot 1 billion dollars or bigger, that sales will reach 3 billion.  He admits that this is basedon analyzation, and because it's never happened before - he's not sure it's possible.  I don't know how much of each ticket goes towards the jackpot, I think it's less than a dollar.

               

              But yeah, if you assume a ridiculous jackpot like 2 billion, splitting it's not bad, but I still think it's better to play now than a draw that will likely sell billions of tickets.  At some point, an increase in sales makes the value of each ticket go down.  The relationship between jackpot size and value of each ticket isn't linear, in fact it wanes off around 425 million dollars.

               

              (BTW, a 17 way split is based off of 3 billion sales, and 1 in 175 million odds, if sales are lower.  That's an average, so it's probably gonna differ from that, but if sales reach that insane level, then there will likely be a lot of winners.)

                Avatar
                Toronto
                Canada
                Member #138397
                January 26, 2013
                179 Posts
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                Posted: May 17, 2013, 5:06 pm - IP Logged

                Well, the Jackpot as they show it is a (conservative) estimate of wha they expect it to be by the time sales close down.  It increases as sales increase because they have to be conservative, as they are advertizing a jackpot bigger than the funds they've already gotten from ticket sales.  So they try to estimate how much they think it will sell, and make the advertized jackpot less because nobodies going to complain if they win MORE than the advertized amount, they would if they got less.

                 

                I really didn't think about it before posting, but after looking at it I think this is what he meant.  He's estimating if they advertize a jackpot 1 billion dollars or bigger, that sales will reach 3 billion.  He admits that this is basedon analyzation, and because it's never happened before - he's not sure it's possible.  I don't know how much of each ticket goes towards the jackpot, I think it's less than a dollar.

                 

                But yeah, if you assume a ridiculous jackpot like 2 billion, splitting it's not bad, but I still think it's better to play now than a draw that will likely sell billions of tickets.  At some point, an increase in sales makes the value of each ticket go down.  The relationship between jackpot size and value of each ticket isn't linear, in fact it wanes off around 425 million dollars.

                 

                (BTW, a 17 way split is based off of 3 billion sales, and 1 in 175 million odds, if sales are lower.  That's an average, so it's probably gonna differ from that, but if sales reach that insane level, then there will likely be a lot of winners.)

                I understand your point, and its a good point. But higher jackpots doesn't necessarily mean higher ticket sales. 

                 

                Take for example, a jackpot with 500,000,000,000 cash option, after tax. 

                 

                then a jackpot with 900,000,000,000 cash option, after tax. I don't think the latter will have a higher number of tickets because people would've spent their

                as much as they can afford on the first jackpot already. 

                 

                Of course, that's a very extreme example. But the point still stands; do I think that a billion-dollar jackpot will get higher sales than the current, 600 million

                one? Yes, I do. But it certainly won't be so much higher. If the average for the current draw is 2-3 winners, I highly, highly doubt that the average for the 

                next draw, assuming a rollover will be more than 5 winners. People just don't have that much money to spend.

                 

                So I predict that there will be less than 6 winners for this current run (so if it rolls over, less than 6 winners next draw etc)

                  Avatar
                  NY
                  United States
                  Member #23835
                  October 16, 2005
                  3475 Posts
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                  Posted: May 17, 2013, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

                  "300 million tickets selected randomly would use about 130 million of the possible combinations, leaving about 45 million of them unplayed. That's 25% of them, so the chances of a rollover should be about 1 in 4."

                   

                  I have no idea how you calculated that (Poisson distribution???) but the Wizard of Odds came up with the same answer, that there's about a 25% chance of a rollover.

                   

                  Anyway, the only reason I mention it is because he estimates that if it isn't won this drawing, and if it goes over 1 billion for next week, that there will be on average a 17 WAY split with the chance of no winners at 1 in 27 MILLION.  Personally, I think his analysis is flawed this time - but still.  There's a chance this jackpot won't be won - in fact, it's something like 20-25% while next time, but if that happens, we'll see a lottery ticket buying frenzy we've never seen before.

                   

                  So, that being said, it's actually probably better to play this drawing than it will be if it rolls over again.  If there's another rollover, expect to see a split between multiple people winning the biggest jackpot in history.

                  Excel will do Poisson calculations, but I only use Excel for straightforward stuff. I've never bothered to learn more than the basics, so I just use a simple iterative function that approximates it. I also sometimes apply a little bit of spin, since people playing non-random combinations reduce the number of used combinations a bit below what random probability results in. I already commented on his flawed analysis  for a rollover elsewhere.

                  There's definitely a sweet spot in the $400 to $600 million range where a single winner is still more likely than multiple winners. I never get extravagant with my ticket buying, but I doubled up on this one. If it rolls I'll probably still buy 2 tickets or even go hog wild and get 3, but winning after a rollover could very well result in a smaller win than taking it tomorow night.

                    Avatar
                    NY
                    United States
                    Member #23835
                    October 16, 2005
                    3475 Posts
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                    Posted: May 17, 2013, 11:52 pm - IP Logged

                    "He's estimating if they advertize a jackpot 1 billion dollars or bigger, that sales will reach 3 billion.  He admits that this is basedon analyzation, and because it's never happened before - he's not sure it's possible."

                    Okay, that makes more sense than what you said in another thread. If the advertised jackpot resulted in selling 3 billion tickets,  it would add about $1.9 billion to the cash value (it's a hair under 64 cents per ticket). That means he's suggesting that advertising a billion dollar jackpot would actualy result in a final jackpot of about  $2.5 billion in cash, or $4 billion as the final advertised amount. Even split 17 ways that would be $147 million in pre-tax cash.

                    As for whether or not it's possible to sell 3 billion tickets, there are two issues. One is the maximum capacity of all the available lottery terminals. There might not be enough cpacity to register and print 3 billion tickets. The other is the capacity of crazy people to buy tickets. Some people will make the $500 spenders look like pikers if it goes over a billion, but a lot of people who already spend a lot of money can't or won't do it again. Many more won't spend more money, no matter how high the jackpot gets. At some point ticket sales will level off no matter how much the jackpot increases. The only question is what that point is, and if we'll get to see it.

                      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
                      New Jersey
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                      Member #99032
                      October 18, 2010
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                      Posted: May 17, 2013, 11:58 pm - IP Logged

                      Excel will do Poisson calculations, but I only use Excel for straightforward stuff. I've never bothered to learn more than the basics, so I just use a simple iterative function that approximates it. I also sometimes apply a little bit of spin, since people playing non-random combinations reduce the number of used combinations a bit below what random probability results in. I already commented on his flawed analysis  for a rollover elsewhere.

                      There's definitely a sweet spot in the $400 to $600 million range where a single winner is still more likely than multiple winners. I never get extravagant with my ticket buying, but I doubled up on this one. If it rolls I'll probably still buy 2 tickets or even go hog wild and get 3, but winning after a rollover could very well result in a smaller win than taking it tomorow night.

                      "There's definitely a sweet spot in the $400 to $600 million range where a single winner is still more likely than multiple winners."

                       

                      Yep, if I recall correctly, he found that sweet spot to be 425 million.  I think that he's got a couple flaws in there, one that seems apparent to me is that nowadays, there's been more huge jackpots.  So people are more used to seeing them, and aren't going to spend as much as they would have a few years ago on a huge jackpot.

                       

                      Still, it'd be interesting to see the Mega Millions get above a billion.  I'd have to think that'd be very likely to sell at least 1 or 2 billion tickets (if not more) but I can't say.  I just think it'd be interesting to see a huge jackpot get taken down by 20 or so people.