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$230 MILLION: Mega Millions jackpot rolls

Topic closed. 56 replies. Last post 3 years ago by THRIFTY.

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LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
Happyland
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Posted: November 29, 2013, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

You assume all the 5+0 winners brought only one ticket and they could have won four times as much by spending an extra dollar but if they instead bought more tickets and one of the extra ones won then they are happy they decided to buy more tickets instead paying double for half as many.  There's a HUGE DIFFERENCE between winning nothing and $1,000,000.00

Agree......

However, roughly 87% of the time the 2nd prize tier value will be more valuable using Megaplier versus more tickets.

Even still, terrible odds for $5 million either way IMO.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

    dallascowboyfan's avatar - tiana the-princess-and-the-frog.jpg
    Oklahoma
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    Posted: November 29, 2013, 3:56 pm - IP Logged

    I'm ready, let my numbers fall.Cheers

    Same here....Cheers

    I Love Pink & Green 1908

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: November 29, 2013, 5:06 pm - IP Logged

      Agree......

      However, roughly 87% of the time the 2nd prize tier value will be more valuable using Megaplier versus more tickets.

      Even still, terrible odds for $5 million either way IMO.

      How did you come up with that 87%.  Lottoreport publishes the regular ticket sales with those of the multipliers for both PB and MM and just looking at them I would think it would be a lot less.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
        Happyland
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        Posted: November 29, 2013, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

        How did you come up with that 87%.  Lottoreport publishes the regular ticket sales with those of the multipliers for both PB and MM and just looking at them I would think it would be a lot less.

        Quick calculation by adding up the probability of a Megaplier prize higher than $2 million, since expected value for $2 million under MP is the same as the expected value of $1 million when buying 2 regular tickets. Odds: $3 million for 1 in 3.75, $4 million for 1 in 5, and $5 million for 1 in 2.5.

        0.266667.... + 0.20000 + 0.40000 = 0.8666667 or ~87%

        So 13% of the time the 2nd tier Megaplier prize will only be equivalent to buying 2 regular tickets instead.

        OptionOddsProbabilityPrizeEV
        1 w/Megaplier18,492,2040.0000000541$2,000,000$0.11
        2 Regular9,246,1020.0000001082$1,000,000$0.11

        Note I am not using the weighted Megaplier which would lead to overall lower value when taking into consideration all the prize levels. Just doing quick approximation for this particular prize level. Smile

        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

          mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
          JACKPOT HUNTER

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          Posted: November 29, 2013, 7:36 pm - IP Logged

          You assume all the 5+0 winners brought only one ticket and they could have won four times as much by spending an extra dollar but if they instead bought more tickets and one of the extra ones won then they are happy they decided to buy more tickets instead paying double for half as many.  There's a HUGE DIFFERENCE between winning nothing and $1,000,000.00

          Your assumption about all the 5+0 winners, are actually baseless, and therefore has no merit. I simply stated the fact that, the cost of any single line of MM ticket with megaplier, bar none is an extra $1.00{promotions not included}.  You can buy a hundred MM tickets with megaplier for $200.00, and if you are so fortunate as to have one line match 5+0, based on the X5 multiplier drawn, you win $5,000,000.00, that same ticket without the $1.00 megaplier, gets you only $1,000,000.00. That $1.00 you spent on the megaplier, for that single line that matched 5+0 is now worth $4,000,000.00 and that is nothing to sneeze at. The odds for MM are mind-numbing, and one might only have one chance in a lifetime, to get 5+0. I am definitely playing it with megaplier always. I don't dwell on I COULD HAVE PLAYED THE MEGAPLIER, I JUST PLAY IT. That simple $1.00 megaplier, might end up being the catalyst that eventually enhances multiple lives. In case you haven't noticed, there is a HUGE DIFFERENCE between $1M and $5M.Drum

          Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

          Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

            helpmewin's avatar - dandy
            u$a
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            Posted: November 29, 2013, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

            Would be a great Christmas gift, Good Luck everyone!!

            Let it Snow Snowman

              veganlife125's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

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              Posted: November 29, 2013, 10:22 pm - IP Logged

              Would be a great Christmas gift, Good Luck everyone!!

              Thumbs Up Good luck to you as well helpmewin!

              The media now have a barrier of about "275 MILLION" before they start running with it.  If it makes it that far it will fly highBig Grin

              Don't forget to visit the Lottery Post Gift Shop!

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                Posted: December 1, 2013, 2:55 am - IP Logged

                Usually add the buck, but sometimes i wonder if adding the Megaplier would change the numbers. Just one of my weird lotto superstitions.

                Of course it changes the numbers. If you turn left instead at an intersection you should easily  be able to come up with  5 to 50 things that will be different than if you had turned right. Do you think everything else in the world will be exactly the same, just because you don't know exactly what causes them to change?

                I don't understand why people would think that if they had done things differently one particular event  still has to happen exactly the same way. As long as you know that some events will happen differently, you might as well assume that other events will also happen at least a little bit differently.

                Of course it's  a bit challenging to do a reliable experiment.

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                  Posted: December 1, 2013, 11:05 am - IP Logged

                  I may need to move my $1billion  prediction to jan 7th or 10th instead of jan 10th or 14th. Jan 7th would be awesome because thats my oldest daughters birthday, and 1 month away from mine.

                  Playing for $1 Billion is nice, but it does not mean that the lottery will pick you as the winner.

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                    Posted: December 1, 2013, 11:07 am - IP Logged

                    For once, there are five second prize winners. Maybe a sign that a lot more players are into it now.

                    Buying more lottery tickets increases your chances of winning. You should try it.

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                      Posted: December 1, 2013, 11:10 am - IP Logged

                      Yeah I just cought that on Tx Lottery's website. You have to buy $10 MM on one tic and you get a free tic w/ megaplier. I haven't played that much myself, but it's pretty cool that it was a free tic.

                      The lottery is numbers game. Buying more tickets per drawing increases your chances of winning the jackpot. I only spend $1 most of the time though. LOL

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                        Posted: December 1, 2013, 11:14 am - IP Logged

                        P.S. The winning $5 million ticket in Texas was a free quick pick. The lottery is running a promotion.

                        Although technically not "free" since it required an initial purchase, I'm sure it made the win that much sweeter.

                        Turning $10 into $5 Millions is a great return on investment.  Is the lottery considered an investment?LOL

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                          Posted: December 1, 2013, 11:18 am - IP Logged

                          I wonder if those 10 MM lines on one ticket are QPs because Ohio had a similar promotion on one of its games a few years ago but the play slips only had five boards.  The only way you could buy 10 lines on one ticket was to ask for ten QPs.

                          Even though today you can play 10 lines on their Classic Lotto play slips there are only five boards on it and any addition lines have to be quick picks.

                          Run the $5 play slip twice through the lottery machine, and you have spent $10 to qualify for the $2 free ticket.

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                            Posted: December 1, 2013, 11:22 am - IP Logged

                            I was wondering that myself. I've been buying our pool tics. $12 worth, but I have picked the numbers lately, and I don't buy the megaplier. I haven't got the free tic, so I think to get the free tic I have to buy 5 tics w/ the megaplier to equal $10, to qualify for the freebie.

                            Buying multiple lottery tickets confuse some lottery players. I wonder why? Maybe because it takes 1 lottery ticket to win?

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                              Posted: December 1, 2013, 11:25 am - IP Logged

                              We all deserve a chance to win...Smash

                              99% of lottery players will never win a lottery jackpot in their lifetime. Good luck.

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