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$291 MILLION: Mega Millions lottery jackpot enters top 25 list

Topic closed. 49 replies. Last post 3 years ago by KY Floyd.

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lottobrain's avatar - box
Smyrna, DE
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Posted: December 4, 2013, 8:51 pm - IP Logged

Where did you get that figure? It says $49 million in sales

Actually I hadn't seen any figures on sales, but just did a basic odds of winning a prize times the amount of winners. I used the Mega ball winners for $1 sales + the $2 sales Mega ball winners which was:

2,252,869 + 196,145 = 2,449,014  x 1/15 odds of getting Mega ball.  This equals: 36,735,210.  I just rounded up a couple of million.  However, if you mulitply by their listed overall odds of winning anything....1/21, you would get 51,429,294.  Based on sales and odds getting 5-0 though, there should have been 2 winners instead of one.  I found the $49 million figure you gave.

    dpoly1's avatar - driver
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    Posted: December 4, 2013, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

    2014 Rolls-Royce Wraith All New Two Door Coupe With 624 Horse Power - Click to see full-size photo viewer

    Is there a Flying Lady in my future?

    dpoly1 - Playing the lottery to save the jobs of those that build, transport, sell & maintain luxury items! -

     

    Eschew Poverty ........... Vote Conservative!

      DC81's avatar - batman39
      MI
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      Posted: December 5, 2013, 12:34 am - IP Logged

      2014 Rolls-Royce Wraith All New Two Door Coupe With 624 Horse Power - Click to see full-size photo viewer

      Is there a Flying Lady in my future?



      Smile

      291M would be a lot more exciting if the CV is where it was before they decided to screw the game up.

      You can't predict random.

        DC81's avatar - batman39
        MI
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        Posted: December 5, 2013, 12:37 am - IP Logged

        A billion dollars for a Christmas jackpot would be really cool!  That's my Christmas wish.  I want to be the sole winner of the billion dollars Mega Millions jackpot.  C'mon Santa.  I've been good this year!  I'm ready for early retirement!

        NoelDancePartyBananaHyperSun SmileyGuitar

        That's not going to happen with only six rolls left.

        You can't predict random.

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          Posted: December 5, 2013, 1:47 am - IP Logged

          I think the media only Highlights the Ones that dont fare that well. Who Knows. Hopefully whoever they are, their winnings have been able to be a blessing to themselves and others.

          If it bleeds it leads. When's the last time your evening news started out with a story that said "Family Of Four Makes It Home Safely After Thanksgiving Dinner At Grandma's House"?

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            NY
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            Posted: December 5, 2013, 1:51 am - IP Logged

            Actually I hadn't seen any figures on sales, but just did a basic odds of winning a prize times the amount of winners. I used the Mega ball winners for $1 sales + the $2 sales Mega ball winners which was:

            2,252,869 + 196,145 = 2,449,014  x 1/15 odds of getting Mega ball.  This equals: 36,735,210.  I just rounded up a couple of million.  However, if you mulitply by their listed overall odds of winning anything....1/21, you would get 51,429,294.  Based on sales and odds getting 5-0 though, there should have been 2 winners instead of one.  I found the $49 million figure you gave.

            Interesting. The odds for the top prizes are steep enough that if the number of winners is even slightly off from what probability suggests, that using those numbers for a simple calculation of how many tickets were sold  can be wildly inaccurate. I'm surprised that the number of 0+1 winners  results in such alarge error. For some reason, 3 must have been an unpopular choice this time around.

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              Posted: December 5, 2013, 1:54 am - IP Logged

              The article failed to mention that this jackpot is number 1 on a different list. That's the list of most rollovers before reaching $290 million.

                Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                Los Angeles, California
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                Posted: December 5, 2013, 8:14 am - IP Logged

                Actually I hadn't seen any figures on sales, but just did a basic odds of winning a prize times the amount of winners. I used the Mega ball winners for $1 sales + the $2 sales Mega ball winners which was:

                2,252,869 + 196,145 = 2,449,014  x 1/15 odds of getting Mega ball.  This equals: 36,735,210.  I just rounded up a couple of million.  However, if you mulitply by their listed overall odds of winning anything....1/21, you would get 51,429,294.  Based on sales and odds getting 5-0 though, there should have been 2 winners instead of one.  I found the $49 million figure you gave.

                Your numbers are off because you're cross multiplying different prize categories.

                Also, when you say "$2 sales Mega" do you mean Megaplier? Because the 2,252,869 0+1 winners already includes the Megaplier side-bet winners. The 196,145 number is how many of the 2,252,869 were Megaplier, not in addition to.

                But anyway, you can't multiply the 1/15 odds with the 0+1 winners, you would have to use the corresponding odds for that prize 1/21.(actually 21.39 to be precise) That gives you 2,252,869 * 21.39 = $48,188,868.

                In order to use the 1/15 odds of just Mega ball, you'd need to add up all the "+1" winners, which is 3,255,602 * 15 = $48,834,030.

                But best number would be to use the total winners times overall 1/14.71 odds, which is 3,321,600 * 14.71 = $48,860,736.

                Of course, it's better just to get the actual Sales figure, which was $49,042,172. But as you see, multiplying correctly gets you pretty close for a "pseudo-sales" number, closer than $37M or $51M anyway.

                Actually, it's not normally this close. The pseudo-sales number varies wildly a few percent above or below the actual sales figures, depending on how the draw lined up with player picks. So it's not really a good estimate of sales, using one line or one draw.

                But interestingly, what the difference can indicate over the long term, is duplicates/overlap of combinations played, the actual coverage of combinations versus the statistical ideal.(due to self picks, birthday numbers, etc) The new MM is currently tracking around 3% difference.

                  DDOH937's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg

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                  Posted: December 5, 2013, 8:36 am - IP Logged

                  That's not going to happen with only six rolls left.

                  I actually thik its HIGHLY possible DC81. Remember, once it get to 400mil which it will within the next couple draws, the madness ensues. Days of 100mil plus jumps are assured. In addition with the media hype and holidays upon us, if no one wins the next 2/3 draws, i really dont see how it doesnt make it to 800mil/1bil. And if by Chrismas there's no winner. Then 1.3 billion or so is almost guaranteed for early Jan. Remember that when it climed to 656 mil over a year ago, it got there with over 250 mil plus jump in ONE day!!!

                  "It's good to have money and the things that money can buy, but it's good, too, to check up once in a while and make sure that you haven't lost the things that money can't buy." - George Lorimer

                    Goteki54's avatar - Lottery-007.jpg
                    Baltimore, MD
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                    Posted: December 5, 2013, 12:06 pm - IP Logged

                    I couldn't help not to burst out laughing when I saw a headline story on Philly.com

                     

                    "Mega Million jackpot 2nd biggest in 2 years thanks to lousier odds'.

                    The sub headline of the story validates MM strategy is working.

                    "Recent changes seem to be helping the lottery game compete with powerball".

                    Usually it's MM which is the after thought, now it's PB. I think at the end of the day, players really don't care about the crazier odds then before with MM, al lthey care about is that big posted annunity value(which nobody ever takes) and that the cost of play is still just a buck.

                    Following the trends and patterns means following the money!Banana

                      Viking Orayk's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
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                      Posted: December 5, 2013, 2:43 pm - IP Logged

                      I couldn't help not to burst out laughing when I saw a headline story on Philly.com

                       

                      "Mega Million jackpot 2nd biggest in 2 years thanks to lousier odds'.

                      The sub headline of the story validates MM strategy is working.

                      "Recent changes seem to be helping the lottery game compete with powerball".

                      Usually it's MM which is the after thought, now it's PB. I think at the end of the day, players really don't care about the crazier odds then before with MM, al lthey care about is that big posted annunity value(which nobody ever takes) and that the cost of play is still just a buck.

                      nailed it"... that's what the matrix change was all about. 

                      Fewer and single big jackpot winners", more lower tier prize winners!

                      With that dollar you're renting your dreams of "what if"........that ticket represents

                      a hope and prayer,  that your long shot comes in.

                        I don't like the new matrix either.......but I love the idea of "what if"

                      so I'll be renting my dream until the drawing come Friday.

                      "Good luck to all"

                                              Bed

                      integrity is doing what's right........ when nobody's watching"

                        golfer1960's avatar - Lottery-003.jpg
                        Eatontown, NJ
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                        Posted: December 5, 2013, 10:56 pm - IP Logged



                        Smile

                        291M would be a lot more exciting if the CV is where it was before they decided to screw the game up.

                        I don't know DC, I'm pretty excited with the cash value of this jackpot.

                        I can see it all now.....

                        Rumson NJ Kitchen

                        Rumson, NJ

                        Pricey but affordable at only $2.675M. Yes Nod

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                          Elgin, IL
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                          Posted: December 6, 2013, 12:54 am - IP Logged

                          A billion dollars for a Christmas jackpot would be really cool!  That's my Christmas wish.  I want to be the sole winner of the billion dollars Mega Millions jackpot.  C'mon Santa.  I've been good this year!  I'm ready for early retirement!

                          NoelDancePartyBananaHyperSun SmileyGuitar

                          Won't happen.

                            DC81's avatar - batman39
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                            Posted: December 6, 2013, 4:09 am - IP Logged

                            I don't know DC, I'm pretty excited with the cash value of this jackpot.

                            I can see it all now.....

                            Rumson NJ Kitchen

                            Rumson, NJ

                            Pricey but affordable at only $2.675M. Yes Nod

                            Don't get me wrong I certainly wouldn't turn my nose up at winning the JP or even one 100th of its size but it still bugs me how much they've neutered the cash value with the changes they've made. Of course I'd completely forget about that if I won.

                            You can't predict random.

                              Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                              Los Angeles, California
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                              Posted: December 6, 2013, 8:55 am - IP Logged

                              Don't get me wrong I certainly wouldn't turn my nose up at winning the JP or even one 100th of its size but it still bugs me how much they've neutered the cash value with the changes they've made. Of course I'd completely forget about that if I won.

                              It's really the annuity that they've messed with, and the cash option is actually slightly improved.

                              The annuity for new MM has been pumped up relative to the cash value, by going to 30 graduated payments instead of 26 fixed payments. This difference between the cash value and the annuity value is called the "annuity factor." And due to the new annuity structure, it is higher now than it was before. Currently about 1.85 for the new MM versus about 1.45 previously with the old MM.(dependent on market conditions)

                              The cash value is the real jackpot and is a fixed percentage of revenue collected. With the old MM, the JP was based on 31.8% of accumulated sales. The new MM is slightly higher at 32.58% of revenue.(of course, that also means the 2nd-9th prizes are slightly reduced in total payout by about 0.8%)

                              The annuity value comes from multiplying the cash value by the annuity factor, except in the early stages of the game,(the first couple draws) where the jackpot is underfunded by sales. In those cases, the cash value is based on the promised annuity value. The jackpot should be fully funded on the 3rd draw for new MM.(was 1st or 2nd draw for old MM) At that point, the annuity value increases more than the minimum $5M increases. So after this big JP is won, it will reset and we should see: $15M, $20M, and then >$25 annuity after that, with corresponding cash value to annuity value ratios.