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$297 MILLION: Mega Millions jackpot raised again before tonight's drawing

Topic closed. 61 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Jon D.

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DDOH937's avatar - Lottery-062.jpg

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December 4, 2013
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Posted: December 7, 2013, 9:44 am - IP Logged

Jackpot will be $344 million if nobody hits tonight.

Hats off to you may Friend. Not sure if you simply guessed or what but either way, you got me on this one. I was predicting $360 Million range.

"It's good to have money and the things that money can buy, but it's good, too, to check up once in a while and make sure that you haven't lost the things that money can't buy." - George Lorimer

    mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
    JACKPOT HUNTER

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    Posted: December 7, 2013, 10:39 am - IP Logged

    Hats off to you may Friend. Not sure if you simply guessed or what but either way, you got me on this one. I was predicting $360 Million range.

    You may still be right if the JP increases to $360M by tuesday night due to brisk sales. The only downside is that PB is currently $100M and competing for the same entertainment dollars.

    Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

    Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
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      Posted: December 7, 2013, 11:15 am - IP Logged

      What is the ball matrix and odds for the new $5 game they are working on?

      No idea. I just heard directly from a lottery official that such a game is in the works and they are looking to launch it within the next 2 years.

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

        Avatar
        New Jersey
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        Posted: December 7, 2013, 6:40 pm - IP Logged

        Sales for MM were already way down and getting pummelled by PB prior to the new MM. But to say that the sales were down even more because of the new matrix is not only premature, it is inaccurate.

        On the contrary, it is clear from my graph to see that not only did players not abandon MM with the new matrix, they responded with higher sales due to new annuity. And all of the big JP runs on PB and MM follow similar curves, so it's pretty easy to forecast how they will end up. It's just shifted in time a bit depending on the run up, so looking at the absolute draw number is not as important as the shape of the curve and response to the annuity value.

        I agree that time will tell if this new MM is enough of a shot in the arm to save the dying patient. PB has proven that the multi-state jackpot customer base will sustain the $2 price and it will always have that advantage with roughly twice the base/starting sales. So this new MM could very well just be transitional, but it's an interesting change nonetheless.

        Compared draw to draw, the sales are lower, period.

        This matrix has not started from a first draw, but matched jackpot to jackpot, and draw number to draw number, as well as on both the Pre-$2 Powerball, and Post-$2 Powerball, they are lower, dramatically so in the former case.

        The $651 M MM (Annuity) jackpot occurred on a 19th draw.   The coming one is a 20th draw.

        I'm at a loss to see how you can say they are higher.

          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
          Los Angeles, California
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          Posted: December 7, 2013, 7:12 pm - IP Logged

          Compared draw to draw, the sales are lower, period.

          This matrix has not started from a first draw, but matched jackpot to jackpot, and draw number to draw number, as well as on both the Pre-$2 Powerball, and Post-$2 Powerball, they are lower, dramatically so in the former case.

          The $651 M MM (Annuity) jackpot occurred on a 19th draw.   The coming one is a 20th draw.

          I'm at a loss to see how you can say they are higher.

          Uhhh...ok...whatevs...Prob. Crazy

          I already explained it to you in detail.

          I'm at a loss to see how you can say the blue line is lower than the brown line at the bottom: (since the matrix change, 6th draw)

          Below graph compares current run in blue (with projections) compared to preceding $189M run (P) on old matrix ending 10/1/13 in orange:

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            NY
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            Posted: December 7, 2013, 8:53 pm - IP Logged

            Uhhh...ok...whatevs...Prob. Crazy

            I already explained it to you in detail.

            I'm at a loss to see how you can say the blue line is lower than the brown line at the bottom: (since the matrix change, 6th draw)

            Below graph compares current run in blue (with projections) compared to preceding $189M run (P) on old matrix ending 10/1/13 in orange:

            There's very little that's obvious in your graphs. You've got two sets of 3 lines with the same labels, and numbers on top of numbers. You've got lines that are extrapolated into areas for which there's no historical data. I'm not going to waste a lot of time trying to decipher the meaning.

            The one thing that's clear is that with MM sales below what they used to be it's very hard to make predictins about what's going to happen as the jackpot grows, and (as Prob noted) whta sales will be like when the jackpot returns to a comparatively paltry $15 million.

            Consumers can be really stupid, but that hardly means the lotteries cant come up with a game that  people aren'ty going to play. MM officials may  not have broken the game completely, but  I seriously doubt that they've done much to solve whatever problems may be  reducing sales.

            Back in June and August  a pair of runs had jumps from 61 to 70 millin and 60 to 69 million, which represents a cash increase of about $6.5 million. After the natrix change this run  had an increase from 65 to 75 million, which was about $5.4 million in cash. Despite starting from a slightly higher point, that increase represents about 82% of the sales for the increase only a few months ago. In the run immediately before this one  a jackpot of 130 million rolled to 145, for a cash increase of about $10.5 million. This run's increase from 132 to 149  was a cash increase of about $9.2 million, about 88% of the pre-change figure.

            Of course it's normal to have some variation, and so far we've only got one post-change run to offer clues. Especiually if w get a really huge jackpot  the next run might grow faster, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm guessing th bestMM canhope for is that the new odds will produce enough in sales fro bigger, but rare, jackpots to offset the smaller sales  for typical jackpots.

              Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
              Los Angeles, California
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              Posted: December 7, 2013, 9:37 pm - IP Logged

              There's very little that's obvious in your graphs. You've got two sets of 3 lines with the same labels, and numbers on top of numbers. You've got lines that are extrapolated into areas for which there's no historical data. I'm not going to waste a lot of time trying to decipher the meaning.

              The one thing that's clear is that with MM sales below what they used to be it's very hard to make predictins about what's going to happen as the jackpot grows, and (as Prob noted) whta sales will be like when the jackpot returns to a comparatively paltry $15 million.

              Consumers can be really stupid, but that hardly means the lotteries cant come up with a game that  people aren'ty going to play. MM officials may  not have broken the game completely, but  I seriously doubt that they've done much to solve whatever problems may be  reducing sales.

              Back in June and August  a pair of runs had jumps from 61 to 70 millin and 60 to 69 million, which represents a cash increase of about $6.5 million. After the natrix change this run  had an increase from 65 to 75 million, which was about $5.4 million in cash. Despite starting from a slightly higher point, that increase represents about 82% of the sales for the increase only a few months ago. In the run immediately before this one  a jackpot of 130 million rolled to 145, for a cash increase of about $10.5 million. This run's increase from 132 to 149  was a cash increase of about $9.2 million, about 88% of the pre-change figure.

              Of course it's normal to have some variation, and so far we've only got one post-change run to offer clues. Especiually if w get a really huge jackpot  the next run might grow faster, but I'm not holding my breath. I'm guessing th bestMM canhope for is that the new odds will produce enough in sales fro bigger, but rare, jackpots to offset the smaller sales  for typical jackpots.

              If you can't make sense of such a simple chart with colors and legend, that's not my problem. Look at the data on your own, or make your own.

              As I told Prob, to make an assessment that sales are way down, on a partial first run, is not only premature, but inaccurate. But based on the immediate preceding run, sales are obviously slightly up. You can't compare something which has been in decline for 21 months (MM) and look at the effects of a new change (new MM matrix) compared to 21 months ago before the decline. That is foolish.

              The most recent run 2 months ago is the most relevant for comparison. But as I said, it's premature with a partial first run for complete assessment, not taking into account seasonal issues and competition from PB. What about that are you objecting to?

              And your comparisons are just plain wrong. Like previous run 130 to 145 (cash inc 10.2) for the same draws 15-16 on this run is 181 to 205,(cash inc 11.8) which are both higher.

                LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                Happyland
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                Posted: January 2, 2014, 6:40 pm - IP Logged

                What is the ball matrix and odds for the new $5 game they are working on?

                rcbbuckeye's post (http://www.lotterypost.com/news/269858/3416408) brought this back to my mind.

                Unless things have changed, the new $5 game I know of has been in development since 2011 (possibly sooner).

                • Hybrid game format - instant scratch off (retailer) with draw game component (online only)
                • It will feature a base 65% payout (some states have higher)
                • Proposed $1 million prize odds of 1 in 905,000 (either online draw or game show where random audience steps on money squares on a pyramid)
                • Proposed structure with overall odds of 1 in 4.99
                • Not a traditional ball lottery so no rollover (Smash)

                They don't want to call the draw component "second chance" but it is what it is. Basically a second chance online entry into national weekly game show utilizing the draw component entries. Reminds me of Deal or No Deal. Personally, I hate the idea of a game show concept. This game does not feel like a national jackpot should. Rather it's more like scratch off with second chance. Tentative name is/was "10 Steps to a Billion" (TV show season with finale of top 10 winners competing for $1 billion); most likely game will use simple generic "national" or "big ticket" type name. They wanted to launch in 2012, but they keep pushing it ahead because it's very sophisticated....that or they're having trouble making it a "sell" Crazy

                As always, you heard it here first Wink

                 

                 

                *Disclaimer: my information may not be completely up to date; however, it is from official sources.

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                  Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                  Los Angeles, California
                  United States
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                  January 5, 2011
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                  Posted: January 2, 2014, 7:05 pm - IP Logged

                  rcbbuckeye's post (http://www.lotterypost.com/news/269858/3416408) brought this back to my mind.

                  Unless things have changed, the new $5 game I know of has been in development since 2011 (possibly sooner).

                  • Hybrid game format - instant scratch off (retailer) with draw game component (online only)
                  • It will feature a base 65% payout (some states have higher)
                  • Proposed $1 million prize odds of 1 in 905,000 (either online draw or game show where random audience steps on money squares on a pyramid)
                  • Proposed structure with overall odds of 1 in 4.99
                  • Not a traditional ball lottery so no rollover (Smash)

                  They don't want to call the draw component "second chance" but it is what it is. Basically a second chance online entry into national weekly game show utilizing the draw component entries. Reminds me of Deal or No Deal. Personally, I hate the idea of a game show concept. This game does not feel like a national jackpot should. Rather it's more like scratch off with second chance. Tentative name is/was "10 Steps to a Billion" (TV show season with finale of top 10 winners competing for $1 billion); most likely game will use simple generic "national" or "big ticket" type name. They wanted to launch in 2012, but they keep pushing it ahead because it's very sophisticated....that or they're having trouble making it a "sell" Crazy

                  As always, you heard it here first Wink

                   

                   

                  *Disclaimer: my information may not be completely up to date; however, it is from official sources.

                  As always, you heard it here first  Wink

                  What is that phrase you keep saying, "You heard it here first!" Is that your slogan LottoMetro? Green laugh

                    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                    Happyland
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                    Posted: January 2, 2014, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

                    As always, you heard it here first  Wink

                    What is that phrase you keep saying, "You heard it here first!" Is that your slogan LottoMetro? Green laugh

                    Slogan, mantra, what have you, I like to use it as a grapevine tag. Big Smile

                    Oh and I forgot to mention a "World Millions" ($10) concept they are considering which would allow lottery players to play 5 national jackpot games on one ticket regardless of nationality (potentially includes second-chance raffle). So U.S. residents could participate in EuroMillions, Oz Lotto, etc and vice versa.

                    You heard it here first!™ Jester

                    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                      Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                      Los Angeles, California
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                      January 5, 2011
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                      Posted: January 2, 2014, 7:50 pm - IP Logged

                      Slogan, mantra, what have you, I like to use it as a grapevine tag. Big Smile

                      Oh and I forgot to mention a "World Millions" ($10) concept they are considering which would allow lottery players to play 5 national jackpot games on one ticket regardless of nationality (potentially includes second-chance raffle). So U.S. residents could participate in EuroMillions, Oz Lotto, etc and vice versa.

                      You heard it here first!™ Jester

                      I just found it interesting that you were sooo eager to dredge up this month old news thread just to say, "lookee at me, I told all of you a month ago about the $5 national game! Listen to me! Follow me! And remember, You heard it from me first!"

                      You work in the lottery industry, so you obviously have inside information on upcoming developments. But I wonder why are you posting so much?

                      There have been other people from the lottery industry that have posted on LP before. But they were generally respectful, and didn't draw attention to themselves the way you do.

                      So the question is: are you here in an official capacity, or are you just here on your own?

                      Are you here "on the clock" so to speak, to gather information on lottery players, and/or influence the opinion of lottery players? Or building a following for some other purpose?

                      Just curious

                        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                        Happyland
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                        Posted: January 2, 2014, 8:01 pm - IP Logged

                        I just found it interesting that you were sooo eager to dredge up this month old news thread just to say, "lookee at me, I told all of you a month ago about the $5 national game! Listen to me! Follow me! And remember, You heard it from me first!"

                        You work in the lottery industry, so you obviously have inside information on upcoming developments. But I wonder why are you posting so much?

                        There have been other people from the lottery industry that have posted on LP before. But they were generally respectful, and didn't draw attention to themselves the way you do.

                        So the question is: are you here in an official capacity, or are you just here on your own?

                        Are you here "on the clock" so to speak, to gather information on lottery players, and/or influence the opinion of lottery players? Or building a following for some other purpose?

                        Just curious

                        As mentioned in the first post of this "dredge," rcbbuckeye's post in the other thread just brought this back to mind. I post the "you heard it here first" often as a sarcastic joke. The archives on this forum are full of nonsense rumors about lottery matters.

                        If I have been disrespectful, feel free to point out specifics. Most, no I would say 99.999999999999% of lottery industry people don't have time or desire to post on forums like this. They get bombarded by the crazies who think a game is rigged or get accused of trying to squash a "winning" system. If I was in an official capacity do you honestly think I would be hanging around here? I might browse every now and then but probably wouldn't even have an account.

                        I am enthusastic about sharing information, that's all. I hardly see anyone else around here taking the time to correct misinformation or offer relevant posts

                        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                          Los Angeles, California
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                          Posted: January 2, 2014, 8:06 pm - IP Logged

                          As mentioned in the first post of this "dredge," rcbbuckeye's post in the other thread just brought this back to mind. I post the "you heard it here first" often as a sarcastic joke. The archives on this forum are full of nonsense rumors about lottery matters.

                          If I have been disrespectful, feel free to point out specifics. Most, no I would say 99.999999999999% of lottery industry people don't have time or desire to post on forums like this. They get bombarded by the crazies who think a game is rigged or get accused of trying to squash a "winning" system. If I was in an official capacity do you honestly think I would be hanging around here? I might browse every now and then but probably wouldn't even have an account.

                          I am enthusastic about sharing information, that's all. I hardly see anyone else around here taking the time to correct misinformation or offer relevant posts

                          I'm just trying to figure out your angle, that's all. Something doesn't add up.

                          I found it interesting that the domain lottometro.com was registered/modified last year around the time you joined LP.

                          And yes, I noticed you many times trying to get the scoop on Todd, even challenging Todd, and break lottery news and jackpot updates with your famous slogan, "You heard it here first!"

                          Are you planning your own lottery website and building your base of followers here as the de facto lottery expert?

                          Some of the things you've dropped in past postings: you're a mathematician, a business and economics grad, you work in reality TV and the film industry, and you have millionaire friends that carry around $10,000 cash in their pockets. Those are just some of the zingers I remember. Big Grin Oh, and you work in the lottery industry.

                          For for a person so busy, you seem to spend an inordinate amount of time posting here, trying to dazzle people with your mathematical skills and inside knowledge.

                          I haven't quite figured you out just yet, but a few more clues and the profile will be complete. Wink

                            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                            Los Angeles, California
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                            Posted: January 2, 2014, 8:18 pm - IP Logged

                            Sorry, I forgot to address your last sentence:

                            I hardly see anyone else around here taking the time to correct misinformation or offer relevant posts

                            OMG what an ego! Everyone else on LP is irrelevant except for LottoMetro. What?

                              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                              Happyland
                              United States
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                              Posted: January 2, 2014, 8:22 pm - IP Logged

                              I'm just trying to figure out your angle, that's all. Something doesn't add up.

                              I found it interesting that the domain lottometro.com was registered/modified last year around the time you joined LP.

                              And yes, I noticed you many times trying to get the scoop on Todd, even challenging Todd, and break lottery news and jackpot updates with your famous slogan, "You heard it here first!"

                              Are you planning your own lottery website and building your base of followers here as the de facto lottery expert?

                              Some of the things you've dropped in past postings: you're a mathematician, a business and economics grad, you work in reality TV and the film industry, and you have millionaire friends that carry around $10,000 cash in their pockets. Those are just some of the zingers I remember. Big Grin Oh, and you work in the lottery industry.

                              For for a person so busy, you seem to spend an inordinate amount of time posting here, trying to dazzle people with your mathematical skills and inside knowledge.

                              I haven't quite figured you out just yet, but a few more clues and the profile will be complete. Wink

                              Detective Jon,

                              Most people have an angle. Mine? Not sure. I waste a lot of time on this forum but not for any specific reason. I like playing the lottery and working with the mathematics of it, trying to find an edge and all. My posts tend to be lengthy because I am a writer by nature (published, another zinger Wink)

                              I register all of my forums' usernames. Believe it or not, it is a habit. I have no plans to add any websites to my LP profile or even publize them.

                              "Challenging Todd." If Todd told you the color red was blue and green mixed together would you accept it as gospel? I admit my social skills are lacking but in no way have my responses to Todd been insulting. I try to be helpful by posting revelant information. If he (or anyone else really) posts something that isn't really accurate, I try to improve it. Forums are designed for information sharing, so what good is it if everything one says is accepted without consideration. I know that I've had to be corrected here before, nothing wrong with that.

                              TV and film is seasonal, so that only keeps me busy for a small fraction of the year. Millionaire friend - I only see maybe once(?) a year. Billionaire I haven't seen in 3 years. Good luck getting anything other than a free meal and Mercedes ride from them! No NodGreen laugh

                              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1