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$550 MILLION: Mega Millions holiday bonanza!

Topic closed. 220 replies. Last post 3 years ago by Viking Orayk.

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Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
Los Angeles, California
United States
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Posted: December 14, 2013, 6:49 pm - IP Logged

I'm puzzled by the 9 second place winners. If terminals are repeating the same QP numbers, then it's possible that all combinations may never be played even if they sell a billion tics

It usually never even has to get that close.

Once you get past 86% combos sold, you can stick a fork in it, it's done! And if not, it'll probably be well before 95%.

Also, even though there were 9 5/5 white ball matches, probably had 1 or 2 with dupe mega ball, so really only 7 or 8 chances out of 15 for 5+1 JP hit.

    mightwin's avatar - questns

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    Posted: December 14, 2013, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

    I'm puzzled by the 9 second place winners. If terminals are repeating the same QP numbers, then it's possible that all combinations may never be played even if they sell a billion tics

    Why puzzled? I'm sure some sets of #'s are repeated but if they sell say 10 million tickets with the 1st number being "2" and either those were self picks or quick picks and "2" doesnt come up then those 10 million tickets are losers for 2nd place and so on etc. So ya you can sell a crap load of tickets and have few winners

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      Posted: December 14, 2013, 7:25 pm - IP Logged

      Todd,

      OK, I'm sure anyone who has watched the drawing and had all five top numbers is on more than pins and needles watching the Megaball and 'knowing' it's a '1 in 15' shot at that point, but it hasn't happened yet.

      Also, you can't really say that those nine 5 + 0 winners made it a 9-in-15 chance because that assumes they all had a different Mega number, no?

      With the 56 matrix Mega Millions used to post on their site that they paid out 10 to 12 jackpots a year. It will be interesting to see how many paid out one year into this matrix.

      Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

      Lep

      There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

        weshar75's avatar - Lottery-042.jpg
        Mcminnville, Oregon
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        Posted: December 14, 2013, 7:34 pm - IP Logged

        Todd,

        OK, I'm sure anyone who has watched the drawing and had all five top numbers is on more than pins and needles watching the Megaball and 'knowing' it's a '1 in 15' shot at that point, but it hasn't happened yet.

        Also, you can't really say that those nine 5 + 0 winners made it a 9-in-15 chance because that assumes they all had a different Mega number, no?

        With the 56 matrix Mega Millions used to post on their site that they paid out 10 to 12 jackpots a year. It will be interesting to see how many paid out one year into this matrix.

        I am thinking coin toss it will be 5 to 6 jackpots a year under this new matrix.  We will see in 2014.-weshar75

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          Arrowhead's avatar - underground
          Ohio
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          December 27, 2011
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          Posted: December 14, 2013, 8:06 pm - IP Logged

          Here you go folks, Mega Millions meets the Twilight Zone.

          Dateline: The near future

          A representative of the MUSL today said that they knew no one would ever win MM with the new 75 number matrix. The rep. saidt they wanted to get everyone in a frenzy with the thought of a 1 billion dollar jackpot, knowing it would never be hit. The whole thing was a marketing test and the game wil resort back to the former matrix.

          The MUSL says thanks for playing and Have A Lucky Day.

          I assume this was intended to be funny, but you're definitely on to something.

            veganlife125's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg

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            Posted: December 14, 2013, 8:25 pm - IP Logged

            It has nothing to do with the overall odds.  The real-world likelihood of a jackpot winner is determined by how many people hit 5+0.  Seasoned lottery players know that the more birthday numbers drawn, the more likely there will be a winner.  I'm sure the low numbers drawn Friday helped increase the number of 5+0 winners, which in turn made it more likely than not that someone would win the jackpot.  (A 9-in-15 chance, or 60% chance.)  The fact that nobody won therefore was in fact "lucky".

            Agreed Todd.  I was sure the jackpot was won when only one number above 31 came out of the hopper.  That 70 barely saved it this time.

            When you have 30% of players picking birthday numbers millions of duplicate tickets down low.  I'd quess from here on out it will take 4 numbers coming out of the hopper above 31 to save this jackpot from being won.

            Don't forget to visit the Lottery Post Gift Shop!

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              NY
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              Posted: December 14, 2013, 8:36 pm - IP Logged

              I'm puzzled by the 9 second place winners. If terminals are repeating the same QP numbers, then it's possible that all combinations may never be played even if they sell a billion tics

              Choosing combinations at random guarantees that se combinations wil be repeated when they sell millions of tickets. Depending on how ambitious you are you can demonstrate it for yourself with a die, a deck of cards, or whatever you have 259 million of. If you roll a die 5 times and get 5 different numbers there's a 1 in 6 chance you'll get the remaining number with your 6th roll, and a 5 in 6 chance you'll repeat one of the other numbers.

              Most of the time, rolling a die just 4 times will  result in at least one number repeating. The second roll gives you a 5/6 or 83.33% chance of getting a new number. Rolling a 3rd time gives you a 4/6 or 66.66% chance of getting a new number, but only if the 2nd number wasn't a repeat. The 4th time it's 3/6 or 50% for a new number. That means the chance of rolling 4 times without repeating a number is .8333 x .6666 x .5, which is .277, or a hair under 28%. Just slightly better than every 4th time.

              With a deck of cards or 259 million lottery combinations you'll usually need a lot more than 3 or 4 tries to produce repeats, but the same thing  holds true. As for selling all combinations, it's veryy unlikely to ever happen. Statistically you'd need to sell well over a billion tickets in order to  use every combination. Selling a billion tickets may be theoretically possible, but even if people would buy that many it would only happen after the jackpot has already reached well over a billion dollars. That means the chance of ever selling enough tickets to sell 99% of the combinations is itself something that's very unlikely.

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                NY
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                Posted: December 14, 2013, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

                Todd,

                "BTW, it was lucky that nobody won the jackpot Friday, because with nine 5+0 winners, the odds were better that someone would hit."

                Do you really consider a house advantage of 240M : 1 'lucky" for the house?

                Using round numbers, odds against 5 + 1 are 258M :1

                Odds againt 5 + 0 are 18M :1

                That's a differnce of 240M.

                258 - 18  = 240, no?

                You're the guru of lottery information...how many games out there are 240M : 1 odds? Most state Pick 6 games are somewhere around 20M :1.

                It sounds enticing that 9 people (or any number of peoplre) would have hit 5 + 0, but that's all part of the hype.Having the 5 and the right number of the 15 Mega numbers combined is the challenge. It hasn't happened yet and it isn't going to happen all too often.  This game is now designed to make MM richer and richer and richer and the rare jackpot winner is just the price of doing business.

                ____________________________________________

                Old School Pa,

                What's brining in revenue for Lucky Day Lotto is the fact that the player doesn't have the option of specifying Midday or Evening. On My3, Pick 3, and Pick 4 you have that option. On Lucky Day Lotto you can play multidraw but players who intended on playing just the next draw often play the next two. Say the jackpot is $500,000 for the evening and you know you won't be able to get the next day's Midday in time. Bingo, Northstar has turned another $1 play into a $2 play, times how many people?

                "258 - 18  = 240, no?"

                258 ÷ 18 = 14.333. The "difference" of 240 is meaningless. Probability is about ratios, not addition and subtraction. Since the distribution of the combinations sold isn't uniform we shouldn't expect that the 9 5+0 winners used 9 different mega balls,  but it definitely tells us that 9 people had a 1 in 15 chance of matching 5+1.

                That means each of those people had a 6.666% chance of choosing the winning mega ball and a 93.333% chance of not picking the right mega ball. The chances that none of them would pick the right mega ball is then .9333^9, or 53.74%. That's very close to the overall odds that selling 168 milion tickets wouldn't produce a winner, which is what  we should expect when the number of 2nd place winners is very close to what probability suggests.

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                  Posted: December 14, 2013, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

                  Agreed Todd.  I was sure the jackpot was won when only one number above 31 came out of the hopper.  That 70 barely saved it this time.

                  When you have 30% of players picking birthday numbers millions of duplicate tickets down low.  I'd quess from here on out it will take 4 numbers coming out of the hopper above 31 to save this jackpot from being won.

                  I'd be curious to know what happens to the  QP to self-pick ratio when the jackpot causes ticket sales to be unusually high. I would guess that  the infrequent players are more likely to  get QP's, so the 70 to 80% figure we hear so often may be based on 70% QP for typical sales and 80% for higher sales volumes. That would reduce the chances of birthday numbers making a winner more likely.

                  For a jackpot of $100 million, selling 20% of the possible combinations might result in a 25% chance of a winner if all numbers drawn are birthday numbers. If a big jackpot results in selling 65% of the combinations drawing all birthday numbers might only increase the chances of a winner to 70%. The first is 25% more likely than random probability, but the 2nd is only 8% more likely.

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                    New Member

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                    Posted: December 14, 2013, 8:47 pm - IP Logged

                    This one will be over $3,OOO,OOO,OOO before it is won.

                    Fatigue will set in and sales will collapse.

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                      Posted: December 14, 2013, 8:51 pm - IP Logged

                      This one will be over $3,OOO,OOO,OOO before it is won.

                      Fatigue will set in and sales will collapse.

                      You really think so? You think people will become disinterested? I noticed that no 8s have fallen into the white ball yet

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                        Posted: December 14, 2013, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

                        People are jamming in extra money that they can't really afford>> to chase the Rainbow.

                        That will slow down pretty soon. Theres a limit to diminishing return.


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                          Posted: December 14, 2013, 10:47 pm - IP Logged

                          Getting closer & closer to that historic billion $ jackpot.

                            EFLO29's avatar - Lottery-031.jpg
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                            Posted: December 14, 2013, 11:23 pm - IP Logged

                            IT won't get to a billion....Someone will hit it before that happens. I'm thinking someone in the East Coast! LOL

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                              Elgin, IL
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                              Posted: December 15, 2013, 1:21 am - IP Logged

                              People are jamming in extra money that they can't really afford>> to chase the Rainbow.

                              That will slow down pretty soon. Theres a limit to diminishing return.

                              There are many who are going to put down hundreds of dollars and win nothing.  The new odds are worse than the old one. A dollar or 5 is good enough.

                                 
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