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In lotteries, lucky numbers will only win you less

Insider BuzzInsider Buzz: In lotteries, lucky numbers will only win you less
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It goes without saying the chance of winning the lottery is minuscule. But if you play the numbers, you should know that certain tactics commonly used to make picks reduce the likelihood of collecting the maximum payout.

Grab a pencil, and we'll try it out.

Let's say a $1 lottery ticket allows you to choose six numbers between 1 and 75. Write down your choices and make a mental note regarding the significance of each one.

If you are like many people, you picked numbers with personal meaning. Perhaps you jotted down a birthday or an anniversary. Possibly you threw in a 7 or some other lucky number. Or maybe you went for a pattern like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Those numbers may feel more satisfying than a computer-generated selection, but they are no more likely to win.

And they are less likely to give you that "I'm quitting and moving to Maui" payday you may dream about if other people, using similar strategies, choose the same numbers and get a cut of the jackpot.

"You can spend your whole life playing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and you'll have the same chance of winning as someone who played 1, 12, 25, 36, 38, 41," said Philip J. Cook, co-author of Selling Hope: State Lotteries in America and a professor of public policy, economics and sociology at Duke University. "It does not matter in terms of winning. It matters in terms of dividing the pot."

Any combination of numbers is equally likely to win, but people tend to choose some numbers and combinations more frequently than others, increasing the likelihood that different people will end up with the same picks.

The effect was documented recently by researchers in the Netherlands and the U.K. who examined more than 5 million number combinations played in the Dutch Lotto during 2½ years to test the players' preferences.

In the Dutch game, players select six numbers between 1 and 45 plus one of six colors. The chances of winning the jackpot, or a share of it, are about 1 in 49 million. The data used by the researchers included the ticket holders' birth date and four digits of their postal code.

If the players had picked randomly, the researchers expected each number to be chosen 13.3% of the time. But that proportion was exceeded by all personal numbers, and day of birth, which was chosen 21.03% of the time, was the most popular.

"These are numbers that follow you through life," said Tong V. Wang, a doctoral student at Erasmus University in Rotterdam and one of the researchers. "You might pick these numbers more frequently. That's indeed what we find."

Other patterns also emerged. Players preferred numbers that appeared in the middle of the lottery form to those on the edges. Visual patterns, such as strings of numbers that ran diagonally across the form, were popular, as were mathematical patterns—including 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, which was the third most popular combination based on the number of players who chose it. Within the period the researchers studied, it was selected 1,944 times by 670 different people.

The researchers found numbers that were "primed" in the players' memory also were chosen frequently. For example, the six numbers that appear in the Dutch game's logo — 2, 6, 15, 24, 37, 45 — were chosen 2,873 times by 650 different players.

While choosing particular numbers doesn't improve a player's chances of winning the lottery, and could reduce the amount of money a winner collects, all modern lottery games allow, and encourage, players to make their own picks.

"It distracts people from the pure chance element," Dr. Cook said. "People act as if they can improve their odds of winning through their insight or technique, but there is no way to improve your odds if the game is, as advertised, purely random."

Winning any amount may satisfy some players. But if the aim is to vie for the maximum payout, the best strategy is to let the lottery's computer generate a random combination of numbers that is less likely to be duplicated by lots of other players.

"An important determinant in playing is the size of the jackpot," said Martijn J. van denAssem, a professor of finance at the University of Amsterdam and another of the researchers. "If they knew they would have to share, it will become less appealing."

And sometimes, the effect is extreme.

The combination 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42, a recurring string that appeared in the American television series "Lost," was played more than any other in the Dutch study, a total of 3,190 times by 656 people.

It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

It amounted to $150 per person.

But when Julie Leach of Michigan won $310.5 million in the Powerball lottery on Sept. 30, she was the only person playing the numbers 21, 39, 40, 55, 59 and Powerball number 17.

That winning combination was an "easy pick" randomly generated by the computer at her local Shell gas station. The numbers were meaningless. But they were worth a fortune.

News story photo(Click to display full-size in gallery)

Wall Street Journal

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38 comments. Last comment 1 year ago by zirabamuzaale.
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United States
Member #167585
July 21, 2015
55 Posts
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Posted: October 9, 2015, 11:17 am - IP Logged

It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

 

This is incorrect.  4/5 pays a set amount not part of a multimillion dollar jackpot.  The person who wrote this article seems like they don't know how to play the games, but it does state that people playing birthdays have a higher chance of splitting the jackpot.  Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself.

 

Anyway this article could be summarized to say, "You have a higher chance of splitting Jackpots if you play birthdays or meaningful numbers as they are all likely lower and there's a higher mathematical chance that someone also played the same birthday numbers.

    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
    Chief Bottle Washer
    New Jersey
    United States
    Member #1
    May 31, 2000
    23273 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: October 9, 2015, 11:37 am - IP Logged

    It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

     

    This is incorrect.  4/5 pays a set amount not part of a multimillion dollar jackpot.  The person who wrote this article seems like they don't know how to play the games, but it does state that people playing birthdays have a higher chance of splitting the jackpot.  Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself.

     

    Anyway this article could be summarized to say, "You have a higher chance of splitting Jackpots if you play birthdays or meaningful numbers as they are all likely lower and there's a higher mathematical chance that someone also played the same birthday numbers.

    Regarding your statement, "Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself."

    That is totally wrong.  You might have a personal opinion that 1,2,3,4,5,6 can never win, but factually you are wrong.  There is nothing about the way the balls are loaded or the physics of the machine that would cause that combination -- or any other combination -- to not be selected.

    Hopefully nobody reads your statement and bases their play selections on it.

     

    Check the State Lottery Report Card
    What grade did your lottery earn?

     

    Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
    Help eliminate computerized drawings!

      hearsetrax's avatar - 0118

      United States
      Member #52345
      May 21, 2007
      2659 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: October 9, 2015, 12:23 pm - IP Logged

      Regarding your statement, "Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself."

      That is totally wrong.  You might have a personal opinion that 1,2,3,4,5,6 can never win, but factually you are wrong.  There is nothing about the way the balls are loaded or the physics of the machine that would cause that combination -- or any other combination -- to not be selected.

      Hopefully nobody reads your statement and bases their play selections on it.

      I still stand by a comment I made a while back

        Avatar

        United States
        Member #145267
        August 1, 2013
        1534 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: October 9, 2015, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

        I personally would not play 1,2,3,4,5,6, I don't know if they would ever come up, I think the odds of that happening is very high.  So, if a person has time on their side go and play that combination.  It is hard enough to win playing regular combinations.

          cbr$'s avatar - maren
          Cordova,Al.
          United States
          Member #104482
          January 15, 2011
          4922 Posts
          Online
          Posted: October 9, 2015, 1:18 pm - IP Logged

          It goes without saying the chance of winning the lottery is minuscule. But if you play the numbers, you should know that certain tactics commonly used to make picks reduce the likelihood of collecting the maximum payout.

          Grab a pencil, and we'll try it out.

          Let's say a $1 lottery ticket allows you to choose six numbers between 1 and 75. Write down your choices and make a mental note regarding the significance of each one.

          If you are like many people, you picked numbers with personal meaning. Perhaps you jotted down a birthday or an anniversary. Possibly you threw in a 7 or some other lucky number. Or maybe you went for a pattern like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

          Those numbers may feel more satisfying than a computer-generated selection, but they are no more likely to win.

          And they are less likely to give you that "I'm quitting and moving to Maui" payday you may dream about if other people, using similar strategies, choose the same numbers and get a cut of the jackpot.

          "You can spend your whole life playing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and you'll have the same chance of winning as someone who played 1, 12, 25, 36, 38, 41," said Philip J. Cook, co-author of Selling Hope: State Lotteries in America and a professor of public policy, economics and sociology at Duke University. "It does not matter in terms of winning. It matters in terms of dividing the pot."

          Any combination of numbers is equally likely to win, but people tend to choose some numbers and combinations more frequently than others, increasing the likelihood that different people will end up with the same picks.

          The effect was documented recently by researchers in the Netherlands and the U.K. who examined more than 5 million number combinations played in the Dutch Lotto during 2½ years to test the players' preferences.

          In the Dutch game, players select six numbers between 1 and 45 plus one of six colors. The chances of winning the jackpot, or a share of it, are about 1 in 49 million. The data used by the researchers included the ticket holders' birth date and four digits of their postal code.

          If the players had picked randomly, the researchers expected each number to be chosen 13.3% of the time. But that proportion was exceeded by all personal numbers, and day of birth, which was chosen 21.03% of the time, was the most popular.

          "These are numbers that follow you through life," said Tong V. Wang, a doctoral student at Erasmus University in Rotterdam and one of the researchers. "You might pick these numbers more frequently. That's indeed what we find."

          Other patterns also emerged. Players preferred numbers that appeared in the middle of the lottery form to those on the edges. Visual patterns, such as strings of numbers that ran diagonally across the form, were popular, as were mathematical patterns—including 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, which was the third most popular combination based on the number of players who chose it. Within the period the researchers studied, it was selected 1,944 times by 670 different people.

          The researchers found numbers that were "primed" in the players' memory also were chosen frequently. For example, the six numbers that appear in the Dutch game's logo — 2, 6, 15, 24, 37, 45 — were chosen 2,873 times by 650 different players.

          While choosing particular numbers doesn't improve a player's chances of winning the lottery, and could reduce the amount of money a winner collects, all modern lottery games allow, and encourage, players to make their own picks.

          "It distracts people from the pure chance element," Dr. Cook said. "People act as if they can improve their odds of winning through their insight or technique, but there is no way to improve your odds if the game is, as advertised, purely random."

          Winning any amount may satisfy some players. But if the aim is to vie for the maximum payout, the best strategy is to let the lottery's computer generate a random combination of numbers that is less likely to be duplicated by lots of other players.

          "An important determinant in playing is the size of the jackpot," said Martijn J. van denAssem, a professor of finance at the University of Amsterdam and another of the researchers. "If they knew they would have to share, it will become less appealing."

          And sometimes, the effect is extreme.

          The combination 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42, a recurring string that appeared in the American television series "Lost," was played more than any other in the Dutch study, a total of 3,190 times by 656 people.

          It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

          It amounted to $150 per person.

          But when Julie Leach of Michigan won $310.5 million in the Powerball lottery on Sept. 30, she was the only person playing the numbers 21, 39, 40, 55, 59 and Powerball number 17.

          That winning combination was an "easy pick" randomly generated by the computer at her local Shell gas station. The numbers were meaningless. But they were worth a fortune.

          News story photo(Click to display full-size in gallery)

          Computer - generated quick pick do have a up side. I prefer a selection of both my own & theirs. I can believe more people choose numbers important to them.

            savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
            adelaide sa
            Australia
            Member #37136
            April 11, 2006
            3300 Posts
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            Posted: October 9, 2015, 1:22 pm - IP Logged

            given a long enough time, 1 2 3 4 5 6 will be drawn in some draw, go grab 6 dice and try to get  ea number on 1 dice with just one throw ea. If you hhave ever played yahtzee its not impossible. it just doesnt happen every game.

            2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

            keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
              United States
              Member #30470
              January 17, 2006
              10353 Posts
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              Posted: October 9, 2015, 1:23 pm - IP Logged

              I personally would not play 1,2,3,4,5,6, I don't know if they would ever come up, I think the odds of that happening is very high.  So, if a person has time on their side go and play that combination.  It is hard enough to win playing regular combinations.

              If - or when - 1  2  3  4  5  6  were to hit it would probably set a record for how many ways it would be split.

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                Bay Area - California
                United States
                Member #136477
                December 12, 2012
                4108 Posts
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                Posted: October 9, 2015, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

                The Game in Random- if it was not, people would be winning each & every time and the game as we know it would fold.There is no such thing as" Lucky Numbers"- sure they are for you, should you win, but overall,  every ticket has as much chance as another. I have be saying that for years..but has anyone been listening? Consider this, prior to Gloria " cutting in line" there were untold millions of individual players along  with folks in lottery pools getting their ducks in a row * meself included hoping to cash in- but a 84 year old gets the Pot of Gold. As someone's signature reads " Pick your own losers."..or winners for that matter.

                People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.

                  Avatar

                  United States
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                  March 16, 2006
                  116 Posts
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                  Posted: October 9, 2015, 1:59 pm - IP Logged

                  It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

                   

                  This is incorrect.  4/5 pays a set amount not part of a multimillion dollar jackpot.  The person who wrote this article seems like they don't know how to play the games, but it does state that people playing birthdays have a higher chance of splitting the jackpot.  Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself.

                   

                  Anyway this article could be summarized to say, "You have a higher chance of splitting Jackpots if you play birthdays or meaningful numbers as they are all likely lower and there's a higher mathematical chance that someone also played the same birthday numbers.

                  I often thought about the physics of the machine and started to build a fairly complicated physics simulator in Blender, with more than a little help from Matlab and Ansys.  It was more fun than function.  If anything, a truly RNG based on geometry and physics rather than suspect calculations, clock times, etc.  Nevertheless, I have learned that the balls (for MM) are loaded randomly.  Then, the non-linear physics of balls deforming slightly as they bump and the wildness of the airflows in the tumble chamber make it all but impossible to predict any outcome with certainty.  The odds of every combination are exactly the same.  Patterns, calendar days (prevalence on numbers 1-31 being played) and other lucky numbers are absolutely unknown to random chaos.  You are correct in that if people tend to play numbers near to each other there is a chance of sharing the pot.  I do like very big numbers.  The degrees of freedom of motion for all the balls, and fairly complicated meshes to simulate the non-linear action/reaction between the (round enough) balls, etc. etc. etc. would take my tiny laptop trillions of years to solve one revolution of the tumble chamber.  Isn't physics fun?  I think so!

                    TheGameGrl's avatar - character catafly.jpg
                    A long and winding road
                    United States
                    Member #17084
                    June 10, 2005
                    4529 Posts
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                    Posted: October 9, 2015, 2:33 pm - IP Logged

                    The irony in qp's is that on various occasions the very numbers I would have picked, showed up on the QP ticket, So really be it man or machine...the odds remain the same. You either win or you don't. Not much math to that final analysis.

                    The other part is the allocation of number sets given to state terminals....That too plays a part....

                    Will be bias on the fact that ball drawn games tend to give you the visual whereas with Computers...its all behind the curtain and rarely disputable should a glitch be sited.

                    ~~Is it true, Is it kind,Is it necessary. ~~~

                    christmas holly jolly numbers: 255,303,6911, 474,477 silver:47,gold:79.

                      music*'s avatar - nw bookeep.jpg
                      Happy California
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                      Member #157856
                      August 2, 2014
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                      Posted: October 9, 2015, 5:27 pm - IP Logged

                      Thank You Todd.  I will continue to use the Quick Pick Generator you have provided for us. It is found at the Quick Links on the left side of the Home page. Find Quick Picks.

                       You offer a better RNG then the State's offer. And in the convenience of our home.

                       I now know how difficult it is to change numbers from your favorites. I think "How would I feel if my numbers came up and I did not play them?"   I am doing both, LP's RNG and my own picks. I need some courage to discontinue my favorites.

                      Good Luck to all LP members !US Flag

                       I've been rich and I've been poor. Believe me, rich is better. 

                       Attributed to Joe E. Lewis and others

                        Bondi Junction
                        Australia
                        Member #57242
                        December 24, 2007
                        1102 Posts
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                        Posted: October 9, 2015, 6:53 pm - IP Logged

                        It goes without saying the chance of winning the lottery is minuscule. But if you play the numbers, you should know that certain tactics commonly used to make picks reduce the likelihood of collecting the maximum payout.

                        Grab a pencil, and we'll try it out.

                        Let's say a $1 lottery ticket allows you to choose six numbers between 1 and 75. Write down your choices and make a mental note regarding the significance of each one.

                        If you are like many people, you picked numbers with personal meaning. Perhaps you jotted down a birthday or an anniversary. Possibly you threw in a 7 or some other lucky number. Or maybe you went for a pattern like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

                        Those numbers may feel more satisfying than a computer-generated selection, but they are no more likely to win.

                        And they are less likely to give you that "I'm quitting and moving to Maui" payday you may dream about if other people, using similar strategies, choose the same numbers and get a cut of the jackpot.

                        "You can spend your whole life playing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and you'll have the same chance of winning as someone who played 1, 12, 25, 36, 38, 41," said Philip J. Cook, co-author of Selling Hope: State Lotteries in America and a professor of public policy, economics and sociology at Duke University. "It does not matter in terms of winning. It matters in terms of dividing the pot."

                        Any combination of numbers is equally likely to win, but people tend to choose some numbers and combinations more frequently than others, increasing the likelihood that different people will end up with the same picks.

                        The effect was documented recently by researchers in the Netherlands and the U.K. who examined more than 5 million number combinations played in the Dutch Lotto during 2½ years to test the players' preferences.

                        In the Dutch game, players select six numbers between 1 and 45 plus one of six colors. The chances of winning the jackpot, or a share of it, are about 1 in 49 million. The data used by the researchers included the ticket holders' birth date and four digits of their postal code.

                        If the players had picked randomly, the researchers expected each number to be chosen 13.3% of the time. But that proportion was exceeded by all personal numbers, and day of birth, which was chosen 21.03% of the time, was the most popular.

                        "These are numbers that follow you through life," said Tong V. Wang, a doctoral student at Erasmus University in Rotterdam and one of the researchers. "You might pick these numbers more frequently. That's indeed what we find."

                        Other patterns also emerged. Players preferred numbers that appeared in the middle of the lottery form to those on the edges. Visual patterns, such as strings of numbers that ran diagonally across the form, were popular, as were mathematical patterns—including 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, which was the third most popular combination based on the number of players who chose it. Within the period the researchers studied, it was selected 1,944 times by 670 different people.

                        The researchers found numbers that were "primed" in the players' memory also were chosen frequently. For example, the six numbers that appear in the Dutch game's logo — 2, 6, 15, 24, 37, 45 — were chosen 2,873 times by 650 different players.

                        While choosing particular numbers doesn't improve a player's chances of winning the lottery, and could reduce the amount of money a winner collects, all modern lottery games allow, and encourage, players to make their own picks.

                        "It distracts people from the pure chance element," Dr. Cook said. "People act as if they can improve their odds of winning through their insight or technique, but there is no way to improve your odds if the game is, as advertised, purely random."

                        Winning any amount may satisfy some players. But if the aim is to vie for the maximum payout, the best strategy is to let the lottery's computer generate a random combination of numbers that is less likely to be duplicated by lots of other players.

                        "An important determinant in playing is the size of the jackpot," said Martijn J. van denAssem, a professor of finance at the University of Amsterdam and another of the researchers. "If they knew they would have to share, it will become less appealing."

                        And sometimes, the effect is extreme.

                        The combination 4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42, a recurring string that appeared in the American television series "Lost," was played more than any other in the Dutch study, a total of 3,190 times by 656 people.

                        It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

                        It amounted to $150 per person.

                        But when Julie Leach of Michigan won $310.5 million in the Powerball lottery on Sept. 30, she was the only person playing the numbers 21, 39, 40, 55, 59 and Powerball number 17.

                        That winning combination was an "easy pick" randomly generated by the computer at her local Shell gas station. The numbers were meaningless. But they were worth a fortune.

                        News story photo(Click to display full-size in gallery)

                        Actually, we all win! Even people who don't play win! 'How so?', one may ask. We all benefit from the revenue raised, which is the point of lotteries.

                        We all get a lot out of lotteries!

                          mikeintexas's avatar - tx avatar-1.gif
                          Texas Panhandle
                          United States
                          Member #136843
                          December 20, 2012
                          1280 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: October 9, 2015, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

                          Regarding your statement, "Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself."

                          That is totally wrong.  You might have a personal opinion that 1,2,3,4,5,6 can never win, but factually you are wrong.  There is nothing about the way the balls are loaded or the physics of the machine that would cause that combination -- or any other combination -- to not be selected.

                          Hopefully nobody reads your statement and bases their play selections on it.

                          I cannot find the news story about it on the 'net, only posts in this forum (by me) and in other forums, but not long after Texas began their lottery, there was a guy in S. Texas who bought five lines on a ticket and two of the QP lines were the same.  They did a segment about it on the Amarillo news, bringing in some math professor who showed his calculations that the odds of that happening were virtually the same as winning the lottery. (with a tiny bit of difference since the man had bought five lines)

                            Artist77's avatar - batman14

                            United States
                            Member #121745
                            January 16, 2012
                            4792 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: October 9, 2015, 7:38 pm - IP Logged

                            Hmmm....so is this article saying Thrifty is right about his fave Maddog contest numbers....1-2-3-4-5-6.  Lol

                            J'aime La France.