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In lotteries, lucky numbers will only win you less

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 1 year ago by zirabamuzaale.

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Baton Rouge, LA
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Posted: October 9, 2015, 10:17 pm - IP Logged

I can think of some real world examples of this. I remember reading here about a couple of Powerball drawings in which many players had won a lower tier prize by matching 4 out of 6 numbers. One incident was playing the numbers from the "Lost" TV series and another was playing the numbers found in a fortune cookie. If they had been the jackpot, it would have been divided amongst several thousand people. That's why I usually play QuickPicks.

Prisoner Six

"I am not a number, I am a free man!"

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    Posted: October 9, 2015, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

    It's popular in the U.S. as well — and in 2011, four of the numbers hit in the Mega Millions lottery. More than 40,000 people had played the winning combination, and each one walked away with a slice of the multimillion-dollar prize.

     

    This is incorrect.  4/5 pays a set amount not part of a multimillion dollar jackpot.  The person who wrote this article seems like they don't know how to play the games, but it does state that people playing birthdays have a higher chance of splitting the jackpot.  Also, playing 1,2,3,4,5,6 you will never win.  Certain combinations will never happen due to the fact of how the balls enter the machine and the physics of the machine itself.

     

    Anyway this article could be summarized to say, "You have a higher chance of splitting Jackpots if you play birthdays or meaningful numbers as they are all likely lower and there's a higher mathematical chance that someone also played the same birthday numbers.

    Wouldn't it suck if 123456 did come out?   Imagine how many ways it would be split.  It's certainly not a number worth playing just because of the multiway split it would generate.

    My personal rule of thumb has always been:

    Don't select past jackpot winners.  What's the likelihood they'll hit again?
    And, have you ever checked your selected numbers, to see if they ever won the jackpot or 2nd place?

      maximumfun's avatar - Lottery-030.jpg
      Lavender Rocket

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      Posted: October 10, 2015, 12:37 am - IP Logged

      We have one fellow who always plays prime numbers. 

      Birthday/anniversary numbers - when they come up I always expect the pot to be split.

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        charlotte.n.c
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        Posted: October 10, 2015, 10:15 am - IP Logged

        The irony in qp's is that on various occasions the very numbers I would have picked, showed up on the QP ticket, So really be it man or machine...the odds remain the same. You either win or you don't. Not much math to that final analysis.

        The other part is the allocation of number sets given to state terminals....That too plays a part....

        Will be bias on the fact that ball drawn games tend to give you the visual whereas with Computers...its all behind the curtain and rarely disputable should a glitch be sited.

        Math  do    play  a  big    part     in  playing    the   pick   3    ,  you  may  not  win  million but  can wint  some  thing,

          New York's avatar - 103h4yr
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          Posted: October 10, 2015, 2:13 pm - IP Logged

          You can't win if you don't play. So keep playing!

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: October 10, 2015, 2:22 pm - IP Logged

            Wouldn't it suck if 123456 did come out?   Imagine how many ways it would be split.  It's certainly not a number worth playing just because of the multiway split it would generate.

            My personal rule of thumb has always been:

            Don't select past jackpot winners.  What's the likelihood they'll hit again?
            And, have you ever checked your selected numbers, to see if they ever won the jackpot or 2nd place?

            Locally we've had 6/44, 6/47, 6/49+1 over the years and now 6/49 and there has never been six sequential numbers ever drawn and no combination of six has ever repeated even in all the combined drawings. 

            In spite of the evidences I still think there is an advantage for picking one own combinations randomly is for no other reason then to avoid such combinations.  I've gotten lucky and picked 5of6 twice in those games and keep thinking it can happen again or even better and pick a 6of6.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

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              Posted: October 10, 2015, 7:01 pm - IP Logged

              If - or when - 1  2  3  4  5  6  were to hit it would probably set a record for how many ways it would be split.

              I Agree!

              CT

              It will hit eventually & will set a major record.....

              But how come in another ostensibly random roulette game,  that black or red haven't hit 50 times in a row?

               

               

              Have to be willing to be lucky

              Eddessa_Knight Sun Smiley

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                Posted: October 11, 2015, 1:39 am - IP Logged

                I Agree!

                CT

                It will hit eventually & will set a major record.....

                But how come in another ostensibly random roulette game,  that black or red haven't hit 50 times in a row?

                 

                 

                Have to be willing to be lucky

                Eddessa_Knight Sun Smiley

                Maybe because the odds of that happening are about 1 in 16,809,491,491,404,700?

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                  Posted: October 11, 2015, 4:15 am - IP Logged

                  I personally would not play 1,2,3,4,5,6, I don't know if they would ever come up, I think the odds of that happening is very high.  So, if a person has time on their side go and play that combination.  It is hard enough to win playing regular combinations.

                  "I don't know if they would ever come up, I think the odds of that happening is very high."

                  And what do you suppose the odds of any particular random combination happening are?

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                    Posted: October 11, 2015, 4:21 am - IP Logged

                    I cannot find the news story about it on the 'net, only posts in this forum (by me) and in other forums, but not long after Texas began their lottery, there was a guy in S. Texas who bought five lines on a ticket and two of the QP lines were the same.  They did a segment about it on the Amarillo news, bringing in some math professor who showed his calculations that the odds of that happening were virtually the same as winning the lottery. (with a tiny bit of difference since the man had bought five lines)

                    "the odds of that happening were virtually the same as winning the lottery. (with a tiny bit of difference since the man had bought five lines)"

                    The odds of it happening would be exactly the same as winning the lottery if the ticket had two lines. With 5 lines the difference is quite significant. Playing 5 lines means that lines 2 through 5 offer 4 chances to match line 1. Lines 3 through 5 offer 3 chances to match line 2. Lines 4 and 5 offer 2 chances to match line 3, and line 5 is 1 chance to match line 4. That's a total of 10 chances, making the odds of a repeated line 10 times as likely as winning the lottery with a single line. More importantly, that ticket wasn't the only QP sold. Every ticket with multiple lines is another chance for a ticket to have two identical lines. Sell enough tickets with multiple lines and a ticket with repeated lines is inevitable.

                    What's also inevitable is that the person who gets that ticket will come forward and other people will think that what happened it wildly improbable.

                    One more thing that's inevitable is some math "expert" who doesn't know enough about probability telling the media precisely how improbable it is.

                      savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
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                      Posted: October 11, 2015, 4:45 am - IP Logged

                      "the odds of that happening were virtually the same as winning the lottery. (with a tiny bit of difference since the man had bought five lines)"

                      The odds of it happening would be exactly the same as winning the lottery if the ticket had two lines. With 5 lines the difference is quite significant. Playing 5 lines means that lines 2 through 5 offer 4 chances to match line 1. Lines 3 through 5 offer 3 chances to match line 2. Lines 4 and 5 offer 2 chances to match line 3, and line 5 is 1 chance to match line 4. That's a total of 10 chances, making the odds of a repeated line 10 times as likely as winning the lottery with a single line. More importantly, that ticket wasn't the only QP sold. Every ticket with multiple lines is another chance for a ticket to have two identical lines. Sell enough tickets with multiple lines and a ticket with repeated lines is inevitable.

                      What's also inevitable is that the person who gets that ticket will come forward and other people will think that what happened it wildly improbable.

                      One more thing that's inevitable is some math "expert" who doesn't know enough about probability telling the media precisely how improbable it is.

                      I wonder how many people will actually play 1 2 3 4 5 6 ? surely it has a lot of bad press, maybe there is a negative bias against it, same with all other sequences

                      2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

                      keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

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                        Posted: October 11, 2015, 10:43 am - IP Logged

                        Ky, well, 1,2,3,4,5,6 I think is extremely high odds, I would not play that combination. I stay with the number combinations that feel good about.  Plus, I'm one of those people that don't trust the lottery.  If that combination comes out, that would be a very high payout for the lottery: jackpot, second tier, and lower tiers.  That's because I think a lot of people are playing that combination.


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                          Posted: October 11, 2015, 12:25 pm - IP Logged

                          Best way to win is to play trends.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: October 11, 2015, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

                            Ky, well, 1,2,3,4,5,6 I think is extremely high odds, I would not play that combination. I stay with the number combinations that feel good about.  Plus, I'm one of those people that don't trust the lottery.  If that combination comes out, that would be a very high payout for the lottery: jackpot, second tier, and lower tiers.  That's because I think a lot of people are playing that combination.

                            In Ohio's Classic Lotto(6/49) 1365 drawings the combination 1 2 3 4 5 6 would have matched three 26 times and matched 4 twice for $140, that about the same as most other combinations that haven't won a jackpot.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

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                              Posted: October 11, 2015, 9:08 pm - IP Logged

                              I Agree!

                              CT

                              It will hit eventually & will set a major record.....

                              But how come in another ostensibly random roulette game,  that black or red haven't hit 50 times in a row?

                               

                               

                              Have to be willing to be lucky

                              Eddessa_Knight Sun Smiley

                              edessaknight,

                              Those poles they added to roulette games to show the most recent spins increased roulette revenue by 26%.

                              I think 50 reds or blacks in a row would indicate a biased wheel or a 'mechanic' but I have heard of 16 repeats.

                              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                              Lep

                              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.