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$334 MILLION: Powerball jackpot rolls into the new year

Topic closed. 79 replies. Last post 11 months ago by Teddi.

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Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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January 17, 2006
10354 Posts
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Posted: December 31, 2015, 6:53 pm - IP Logged

Just for fun- PB alternate ending-

The jp keeps rolling over until it gets to with a couple of thousand dollars of the much anticipated $1B mark and then because 'an official' is about to sing like a canary the MUSL pulls the plug on PB.

Scared

Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

Lep

There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    Happyland
    United States
    Member #146344
    September 1, 2013
    1129 Posts
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    Posted: December 31, 2015, 10:56 pm - IP Logged

    $400+ million if no winner Saturday.......

    Not sure if they are projecting high on purpose (self-fulfilling prophecy) or if these are legitimate expectations. Given that, I would now estimate 3-4 weeks to reach the big B.

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

      BBLL's avatar - audi r8-wallpaper-bla
      Chicago
      United States
      Member #122762
      February 7, 2012
      160 Posts
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      Posted: December 31, 2015, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

      Some place warm for several months, just disappear, maybe Tahiti.  See Ya!

      Happy New Year LP members.  And of course, Good Luck for the next two major games!

      Dance

      I want to go to key west

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        Glenn Dale
        United States
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        March 13, 2009
        1264 Posts
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        Posted: January 1, 2016, 7:47 am - IP Logged

        It would be great to see the funds split up more often and Maryland and Washington DC included, hey lottery post Maryland wants a slice of the pie tooSad Wavey

          Saylorgirl's avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
          Indiana
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          Member #129225
          June 13, 2012
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          Posted: January 1, 2016, 8:52 am - IP Logged

          It would be great to see the funds split up more often and Maryland and Washington DC included, hey lottery post Maryland wants a slice of the pie tooSad Wavey

          I think Maryland has had a good piece of that pie.  If you look back at Todd's original story you will see in the top 25 jackpots Maryland took spots #1, #8 and #21. 

          Happy New Year!

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            New Jersey
            United States
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            September 4, 2005
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            Posted: January 1, 2016, 10:26 am - IP Logged

            In spite of all the enthusiasm for it, the real record set by this lottery sequence is the lowest ever observed expectation values for jackpots exceeding 300 million annuity.    For this drawing it is a very, very, very, very modest 0.51, meaning it's not even close to a "good bet."

            Before the massive worsening of odds in both MM and Powerball, expectation values were often in the range of 0.9 (close to Casino odds) and even from time to time exceeded 1.00.

            Calculating sales expectations from the current jackpot, as currently defined by the lottery for the $334M annuity jackpot of roughly $65M representing 32.5M tickets sold, the probabilities for various numbers of winners are given in this table below:

            k, number of winnersp(m,k)
            089.07%
            110.31%
            20.60%
            30.02%

            From these figures we see that the highest probability, 89%, is that 32.5 million tickets will not produce the dream jackpot for any purchaser.

            The shift to low expectation values with ever higher odds against winning, by the way, seems not to be working as intended.   In both MM and Powerball, sales are way down.

            It is highly probable that the jackpot will roll again this time, and likely that it will roll several times.   It is possible that the expectation value will go higher, but it's nowhere near a "good bet" right now.  The fact is that now it will generally take more than 20 draws, ten weeks (or more) in order for a Powerball jackpot to enjoy "good bet" status.    Any jackpot doing so would need to set a new record.

            As we talk about one billion, we can expect, given current trends, for the Powerball odds to rise again and again until they are one in a billion and roll over for years and yeras while people continue to lose interest in the game.

            I hope that this is not too much of a downer for anyone enjoying a fantasy, but if you buy a ticket - and I confess I bought one - that's what you're paying for, a fantasy and nothing else.

              travelintrucker's avatar - morph
              Greenville, SC
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              November 4, 2015
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              Posted: January 1, 2016, 10:54 am - IP Logged

              That would suck!

              May the balls bounce in your favor!

                LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                Happyland
                United States
                Member #146344
                September 1, 2013
                1129 Posts
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                Posted: January 1, 2016, 12:11 pm - IP Logged

                In spite of all the enthusiasm for it, the real record set by this lottery sequence is the lowest ever observed expectation values for jackpots exceeding 300 million annuity.    For this drawing it is a very, very, very, very modest 0.51, meaning it's not even close to a "good bet."

                Before the massive worsening of odds in both MM and Powerball, expectation values were often in the range of 0.9 (close to Casino odds) and even from time to time exceeded 1.00.

                Calculating sales expectations from the current jackpot, as currently defined by the lottery for the $334M annuity jackpot of roughly $65M representing 32.5M tickets sold, the probabilities for various numbers of winners are given in this table below:

                k, number of winnersp(m,k)
                089.07%
                110.31%
                20.60%
                30.02%

                From these figures we see that the highest probability, 89%, is that 32.5 million tickets will not produce the dream jackpot for any purchaser.

                The shift to low expectation values with ever higher odds against winning, by the way, seems not to be working as intended.   In both MM and Powerball, sales are way down.

                It is highly probable that the jackpot will roll again this time, and likely that it will roll several times.   It is possible that the expectation value will go higher, but it's nowhere near a "good bet" right now.  The fact is that now it will generally take more than 20 draws, ten weeks (or more) in order for a Powerball jackpot to enjoy "good bet" status.    Any jackpot doing so would need to set a new record.

                As we talk about one billion, we can expect, given current trends, for the Powerball odds to rise again and again until they are one in a billion and roll over for years and yeras while people continue to lose interest in the game.

                I hope that this is not too much of a downer for anyone enjoying a fantasy, but if you buy a ticket - and I confess I bought one - that's what you're paying for, a fantasy and nothing else.

                lol.....I think the days of "fair bet" jackpots are over.....

                Advertised annuity would be roughly $1.5 billion before the after-tax cash could be considered "fair bet"

                There was a paper written several years ago, forget the author, but he derived a constant for rollover jackpot games that determines the optimal prize/sales which maximizes the expectation for all players. For the new PB it is roughly when 1.1 billion tickets have been sold, or a cash jackpot around $745 million far beneath the threshold for being considered a fair bet after taxes, so one may conclude that you shouldn't play PB ever.

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                  dpoly1's avatar - driver
                  PA
                  United States
                  Member #66141
                  October 16, 2008
                  1672 Posts
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                  Posted: January 1, 2016, 1:46 pm - IP Logged

                  Partysame to you too,Dpoly1 Party

                  lets hope 2016 will be a lucky year 4 all of us

                  'cept for the whiners and trolls

                  I Agree!

                  dpoly1 - Playing the lottery to save the jobs of those that build, transport, sell & maintain luxury items! -

                   

                  Eschew Poverty ........... Vote Conservative!

                    Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

                    United States
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                    May 13, 2013
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                    Posted: January 1, 2016, 2:18 pm - IP Logged

                    I tell my wife that we would be buying a private island in the Caribbean.

                    I don't see why not. Islands are cheap, especially if there's nothing on it. Countries who own the islands are eager to sell because you have to pay them property taxes for land that would otherwise just be sitting idle. 

                    There are a lot of islands out there that already have resort-type accommodations and villas on them, so you can rent out the villas when you're not using the island and generate income. And no, you don't have to share the island with anyone. It's your private property just like any other residential land purchase. 

                    Sometimes, the owning country will practically give away an island in exchange for you building it up for tourism  (think Necker island), but those are few and far between, and unless you want it solely for investment, you just avoid those.

                    I might wake up early and go running.  I might also wake up and win the lottery.

                    The odds are about the same.

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                      NY
                      United States
                      Member #23835
                      October 16, 2005
                      3475 Posts
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                      Posted: January 1, 2016, 3:45 pm - IP Logged

                      "Advertised annuity would be roughly $1.5 billion before the after-tax cash could be considered "fair bet""

                      With odds of about 290 million to 1 against, and a $2 ticket price you'd need to net $580 million for an expectation value of 1.0. Figuring federal taxes and a mid-range state tax of 5% the advertised jackpot would have to be about $1.715 billion. I believe that's entirely possible under the current matrix, but there's a major catch.

                      The increases are significantly smaller than they used to be, but at some amount over 350 or 400 we'll see some very large sales. I'm guessing that we need a rollover at something between 600 and 700 to each a billion in one shot. If it gets to the 1.7 range I'm figuring there will be at least 500 million tickets sold, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was much higher. In that case there's a very good chance that there will be multiple winners, and the expectation value of 1.0 didn't really exist.

                        Avatar
                        NY
                        United States
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                        October 16, 2005
                        3475 Posts
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                        Posted: January 1, 2016, 3:45 pm - IP Logged

                        It would be great to see the funds split up more often and Maryland and Washington DC included, hey lottery post Maryland wants a slice of the pie tooSad Wavey

                        I'd rather have the money for myself, but if you want to buy a ticket with the winning numbers I won't hold a grudge. Well, maybe if they're the same numbers I played.

                          MaximumMillions's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg

                          Germany
                          Member #164603
                          March 8, 2015
                          614 Posts
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                          Posted: January 1, 2016, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

                          In spite of all the enthusiasm for it, the real record set by this lottery sequence is the lowest ever observed expectation values for jackpots exceeding 300 million annuity.    For this drawing it is a very, very, very, very modest 0.51, meaning it's not even close to a "good bet."

                          Before the massive worsening of odds in both MM and Powerball, expectation values were often in the range of 0.9 (close to Casino odds) and even from time to time exceeded 1.00.

                          Calculating sales expectations from the current jackpot, as currently defined by the lottery for the $334M annuity jackpot of roughly $65M representing 32.5M tickets sold, the probabilities for various numbers of winners are given in this table below:

                          k, number of winnersp(m,k)
                          089.07%
                          110.31%
                          20.60%
                          30.02%

                          From these figures we see that the highest probability, 89%, is that 32.5 million tickets will not produce the dream jackpot for any purchaser.

                          The shift to low expectation values with ever higher odds against winning, by the way, seems not to be working as intended.   In both MM and Powerball, sales are way down.

                          It is highly probable that the jackpot will roll again this time, and likely that it will roll several times.   It is possible that the expectation value will go higher, but it's nowhere near a "good bet" right now.  The fact is that now it will generally take more than 20 draws, ten weeks (or more) in order for a Powerball jackpot to enjoy "good bet" status.    Any jackpot doing so would need to set a new record.

                          As we talk about one billion, we can expect, given current trends, for the Powerball odds to rise again and again until they are one in a billion and roll over for years and yeras while people continue to lose interest in the game.

                          I hope that this is not too much of a downer for anyone enjoying a fantasy, but if you buy a ticket - and I confess I bought one - that's what you're paying for, a fantasy and nothing else.

                          Thanks for the calculations, at 10% probability of being hit I can see the jackpot roll a long time.

                           

                          Somebody referenced some calculations on how many winners to expect at a given time, but couldn't remember the link.

                          I think this might be it, though it's based on the old PB structure:

                          http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-when-math-says-you-should-start-to-care-about-powerball-2013-9?IR=T

                            MaximumMillions's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg

                            Germany
                            Member #164603
                            March 8, 2015
                            614 Posts
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                            Posted: January 1, 2016, 4:13 pm - IP Logged

                            I don't see why not. Islands are cheap, especially if there's nothing on it. Countries who own the islands are eager to sell because you have to pay them property taxes for land that would otherwise just be sitting idle. 

                            There are a lot of islands out there that already have resort-type accommodations and villas on them, so you can rent out the villas when you're not using the island and generate income. And no, you don't have to share the island with anyone. It's your private property just like any other residential land purchase. 

                            Sometimes, the owning country will practically give away an island in exchange for you building it up for tourism  (think Necker island), but those are few and far between, and unless you want it solely for investment, you just avoid those.

                            I end up on Vladi Private Islands quite often, can spend hours scoping ut the most attractive islands I can't buy. Though I have found some crazy price developments, like one island sold in 2008 for 3M$ now going for 60M$ Sulk Off

                              Avatar
                              New Jersey
                              United States
                              Member #21206
                              September 4, 2005
                              949 Posts
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                              Posted: January 1, 2016, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

                              "Advertised annuity would be roughly $1.5 billion before the after-tax cash could be considered "fair bet""

                              With odds of about 290 million to 1 against, and a $2 ticket price you'd need to net $580 million for an expectation value of 1.0. Figuring federal taxes and a mid-range state tax of 5% the advertised jackpot would have to be about $1.715 billion. I believe that's entirely possible under the current matrix, but there's a major catch.

                              The increases are significantly smaller than they used to be, but at some amount over 350 or 400 we'll see some very large sales. I'm guessing that we need a rollover at something between 600 and 700 to each a billion in one shot. If it gets to the 1.7 range I'm figuring there will be at least 500 million tickets sold, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was much higher. In that case there's a very good chance that there will be multiple winners, and the expectation value of 1.0 didn't really exist.

                              To be clear, my calculations of expectation values are pre-tax.

                              I'm not an anarchist; I therefore believe in paying taxes.   

                              It's amazing how many people despise paying taxes when mentioning their lottery fantasies here.    When I hear this stuff, I kind of wonder how secure their new wealth would be if they lived in a place like, say, Somalia or Syria or Iraq, where tax collections, such as they are, are more easy to avoid assuming you can hire your own militia.   Personally, I'd rather just pay taxes than hire my own militia to protect my wealth.

                              I love my country and my system of government, and it's one of the things for which I enjoy paying.