Welcome Guest
You last visited September 21, 2017, 1:39 pm
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

# \$334 MILLION: Powerball jackpot rolls into the new year

Topic closed. 79 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Teddi.

 Page 4 of 6
New Member

Namibia
Member #171156
January 1, 2016
8 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 1, 2016, 8:58 pm - IP Logged

\$400+ million if no winner Saturday.......

Not sure if they are projecting high on purpose (self-fulfilling prophecy) or if these are legitimate expectations. Given that, I would now estimate 3-4 weeks to reach the big B.

Watch this space...

Texas
United States
Member #55889
October 23, 2007
6573 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 1, 2016, 9:14 pm - IP Logged

In spite of all the enthusiasm for it, the real record set by this lottery sequence is the lowest ever observed expectation values for jackpots exceeding 300 million annuity.    For this drawing it is a very, very, very, very modest 0.51, meaning it's not even close to a "good bet."

Before the massive worsening of odds in both MM and Powerball, expectation values were often in the range of 0.9 (close to Casino odds) and even from time to time exceeded 1.00.

Calculating sales expectations from the current jackpot, as currently defined by the lottery for the \$334M annuity jackpot of roughly \$65M representing 32.5M tickets sold, the probabilities for various numbers of winners are given in this table below:

 k, number of winners p(m,k) 0 89.07% 1 10.31% 2 0.60% 3 0.02%

From these figures we see that the highest probability, 89%, is that 32.5 million tickets will not produce the dream jackpot for any purchaser.

The shift to low expectation values with ever higher odds against winning, by the way, seems not to be working as intended.   In both MM and Powerball, sales are way down.

It is highly probable that the jackpot will roll again this time, and likely that it will roll several times.   It is possible that the expectation value will go higher, but it's nowhere near a "good bet" right now.  The fact is that now it will generally take more than 20 draws, ten weeks (or more) in order for a Powerball jackpot to enjoy "good bet" status.    Any jackpot doing so would need to set a new record.

As we talk about one billion, we can expect, given current trends, for the Powerball odds to rise again and again until they are one in a billion and roll over for years and yeras while people continue to lose interest in the game.

I hope that this is not too much of a downer for anyone enjoying a fantasy, but if you buy a ticket - and I confess I bought one - that's what you're paying for, a fantasy and nothing else.

All of that is ok for those that wish to decide whether PB, or MM, or ANY lottery jackpot game is a "good" bet. Frankly, none of them are a good bet. But it really doesn't matter. Because none of us, (well, me anyway), don't plunk down our money based on a good bet or a bad bet. We place our bets because we hope to win a jackpot.

I would quite happy to win second prize. It would set up my retirement nicely. Yeah I would still have to work a few more years, but, the future would look a lot brighter.

And....someone, somewhere, IS going to win sometime.

CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR \$2)

NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3621 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 1, 2016, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

To be clear, my calculations of expectation values are pre-tax.

I'm not an anarchist; I therefore believe in paying taxes.

It's amazing how many people despise paying taxes when mentioning their lottery fantasies here.    When I hear this stuff, I kind of wonder how secure their new wealth would be if they lived in a place like, say, Somalia or Syria or Iraq, where tax collections, such as they are, are more easy to avoid assuming you can hire your own militia.   Personally, I'd rather just pay taxes than hire my own militia to protect my wealth.

I love my country and my system of government, and it's one of the things for which I enjoy paying.

I'd really, really like to pay taxes on an income of 300 million dollars, because it would mean I had \$160ish million to keep for myself.

The way I view expectation value is that ignoring the smaller prizes, everybody but the winner(s) will have risked and lost the full \$2 price of the ticket, and the winner(s) will lose 40 to 50% of the prize to taxes. Over the long term players should to spend \$584 million (292 million tickets @ \$2 each) to win one jackpot, and that jackpot will return about \$200 million before taxes and \$100 to \$120 million after taxes. In order for the players to get back the \$584 they've spent the advertised jackpot therefore needs to be about 5 to 5.8 times as big.

Fresno California
United States
Member #157856
August 2, 2014
1879 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 11:23 am - IP Logged

KY, How did you come up with \$160 million and you live in NY? I live in California and my State does not tax lottery winnings but I only get \$131,000,000.00 after all, deductions and taxes are paid. I can go into detail if you would like me too.

I am hoping that our fearless leader Todd Northrop updates this Power Ball jackpot from \$334,000,000.00 to a higher number.

Good Luck everyone!!

Keep the good times rolling !!!

United States
Member #142499
May 13, 2013
1322 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 12:52 pm - IP Logged

KY, How did you come up with \$160 million and you live in NY? I live in California and my State does not tax lottery winnings but I only get \$131,000,000.00 after all, deductions and taxes are paid. I can go into detail if you would like me too.

I am hoping that our fearless leader Todd Northrop updates this Power Ball jackpot from \$334,000,000.00 to a higher number.

Good Luck everyone!!

I too am really surprised I haven't seen a bump. But then, I have yet to see this make our local news and I haven't seen any lines anywhere for tickets.

Not that I'm complaining. Fewer people in a frenzy, the better my chances I won't have to share with anyone.

I too would prefer Cersei Lannister to Tiny Hands. She always pays her debts, hasn't filed 6 bankruptcies and is educated enough to know Nambia isn't a country.

United States
Member #93164
June 23, 2010
1864 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

I hope it continues to roll and set a new Power ball record jackpot.

Texas Panhandle
United States
Member #136843
December 20, 2012
1453 Posts
Online
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 2:53 pm - IP Logged

To be clear, my calculations of expectation values are pre-tax.

I'm not an anarchist; I therefore believe in paying taxes.

It's amazing how many people despise paying taxes when mentioning their lottery fantasies here.    When I hear this stuff, I kind of wonder how secure their new wealth would be if they lived in a place like, say, Somalia or Syria or Iraq, where tax collections, such as they are, are more easy to avoid assuming you can hire your own militia.   Personally, I'd rather just pay taxes than hire my own militia to protect my wealth.

I love my country and my system of government, and it's one of the things for which I enjoy paying.

I'm one of those who have griped about taxes, but it's not about PAYING them, it's paying SO MUCH, esp. on a JP win where it's classified as "ordinary income" and taxed at the highest rate.  As has been brought up in here at least a hundred times before, other countries have lotteries that are tax-free.  If you opt for the C/V of tonight's PB JP, the federal taxes you pay wouldn't run the U.S. govt. for ten minutes.  Be that as it may, the worst thing is that out of that huge sum, only a tiny amount would trickle down to the area where you live.    Most of that money would be wasted while getting there, too.  I could do more good and help more people with a quarter of that amount than the feds could with all of it.

Back in the 80's, the taxpayer funded NEA shelled out something like 20 grand to the artist who took a crucifix and put it in a jar of urine and called it "art".  \$20k could have been better spent at the local military museum, probably paying their utility bills and other expenses for a couple of years.  It's the govt.'s use of funds for things such as that which infuriate me.

Since I don't live in Somalia, Syria or Iraq, I don't have to worry about it.  In fact, if I lived in one of those countries, I doubt I'd know anything about U.S. lotteries and instead of worrying about paying taxes on the win, would be more concerned about keeping my family safe or getting gasoline for my Toyota pickup and ammo for the .50 caliber mounted in back and where the infidels were I wanted to kill.   Not sure why you brought that up, but it was a silly example and had nothing to do with paying taxes HERE.

I also love my country and while I think our system of govt. is good, it's certainly not evolved as our Founding Fathers intended.  I do not enjoy paying taxes, but I understand they're necessary.  What I do despise is paying for the bloated, inefficient bureaucracies with many multiple levels of employees that make more and do less than the levels below them and those govt. agencies that can hand down regulations and mandates that have the force of law.

You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life.
- Winston Churchill

Australia
Member #37136
April 11, 2006
3329 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 3:07 pm - IP Logged

im already planning what income i will have  based on the investment of the cash payment.  all i can say is WOOOOT oh wait still the small detail of winning

" Still swinging, still missing "
2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = ?  TOT =  -3596: JAN= -

keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 = ? TOT = - 3318: JAN= -39

Idaho
United States
Member #94283
July 17, 2010
2284 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 4:49 pm - IP Logged

I don't have a problem paying federal taxes, but it chaps my rear that the state takes more.

They're already making millions per year on a voluntary tax that we lottery players pay.  I don't even have kids, and I'm giving major funding to the schools.  I think that's enough and they should not double tax me if I should ever win.

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
953 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 5:24 pm - IP Logged

I'm one of those who have griped about taxes, but it's not about PAYING them, it's paying SO MUCH, esp. on a JP win where it's classified as "ordinary income" and taxed at the highest rate.  As has been brought up in here at least a hundred times before, other countries have lotteries that are tax-free.  If you opt for the C/V of tonight's PB JP, the federal taxes you pay wouldn't run the U.S. govt. for ten minutes.  Be that as it may, the worst thing is that out of that huge sum, only a tiny amount would trickle down to the area where you live.    Most of that money would be wasted while getting there, too.  I could do more good and help more people with a quarter of that amount than the feds could with all of it.

Back in the 80's, the taxpayer funded NEA shelled out something like 20 grand to the artist who took a crucifix and put it in a jar of urine and called it "art".  \$20k could have been better spent at the local military museum, probably paying their utility bills and other expenses for a couple of years.  It's the govt.'s use of funds for things such as that which infuriate me.

Since I don't live in Somalia, Syria or Iraq, I don't have to worry about it.  In fact, if I lived in one of those countries, I doubt I'd know anything about U.S. lotteries and instead of worrying about paying taxes on the win, would be more concerned about keeping my family safe or getting gasoline for my Toyota pickup and ammo for the .50 caliber mounted in back and where the infidels were I wanted to kill.   Not sure why you brought that up, but it was a silly example and had nothing to do with paying taxes HERE.

I also love my country and while I think our system of govt. is good, it's certainly not evolved as our Founding Fathers intended.  I do not enjoy paying taxes, but I understand they're necessary.  What I do despise is paying for the bloated, inefficient bureaucracies with many multiple levels of employees that make more and do less than the levels below them and those govt. agencies that can hand down regulations and mandates that have the force of law.

Well, Mike, you say you love your country but wished it evolved like the Founding Fathers intended.   Personally, I wouldn't want to live in the world they envisioned, where lots of human beings were treated like farm animals, for one thing among many others.    The people who founded the country had huge disagreements among themselves, and I'm sure they didn't regard themselves as infallible and thus were careful to include provisions in their constitution that would correct their self acknowledged imperfections, as was specifically stated in the Federalist papers, specifically and unambiguously in Federalist #85.

Federalist #85

But I have no doubt that you still would prefer living in the 18th century; and I'm happy that even though you won't win the lottery, that if you did, your first purchase would be horses and a real wonderful plantation with porcelain seats in the outhouses, just like the ones James Madison had.

I'm quite sure too, while you don't live in Iraq, you feel nothing at all for the fact that tax dollars were used to blow the lives of human beings living there to little bits, because of your ex-Governor had something to work out with his Daddy.   I assume the children there who had their arms or heads blown off were just casualties of your Christian love.

Some of us feel otherwise about all of that; we actually value human beings in reality, and not in the mindless chanting in churches about love and peace until we can get outside the door to shoot the neighbors we just said we loved full of holes.  We feel that when simpletons blow things apart with no plan to build things to replace them, they are making the lives of everyone on the planet more dangerous.

And you're right, the entire lottery sales for the entire history of the lottery wouldn't pay very much for the two trillion good time party we had between 2000 and 2008 blowing up "infidels."

Basically, you and I may live in the same country - and I question whether you really love it although I'm sure you wave the flag a lot - and I definitely see that you do, in fact, want to form your own militia of one with 50 calibre ammunition on a Toyota truck.

It's a lucky thing you won't win the lottery, and you won't.   You wouldn't last three weeks before someone with the same mentality blew you away in a gun battle, probably taking down lots of innocent people in the cross fire.

This is the disturbing thing about the lottery at the end of the day; anyone can win it; even fools and nothing is worse than a fool with power.

As for the people who work in Government, many of them are highly educated and hard working.   Somehow I doubt that you are actually their equal in working for this country or for the world.    I've had lots of interactions with government employees, my children's teachers for instance, who love their country and work hard for it in ways that you are clearly incapable of imagining.

Texas Panhandle
United States
Member #136843
December 20, 2012
1453 Posts
Online
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 5:39 pm - IP Logged

You don't know jack squat about me and you've just written the most ignorant piece of crap I've read this week.

Give it time, though, there's still the rest of the day.

NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3621 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 5:46 pm - IP Logged

"did you come up with \$160 million"

Easy. I said an income of \$300 million. I didn't say anything about a fictitious prize of \$300 million.

"Fewer people in a frenzy"

Even the people who post here haven't managed to get past page 4 yet.

NJ
United States
Member #165922
April 27, 2015
6011 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 6:54 pm - IP Logged

I think I'd rent a private island for a month once a year

Rent? Why rent when u can buy your own island with that kind of money.

United States
Member #52345
May 21, 2007
2797 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 7:14 pm - IP Logged

Rent? Why rent when u can buy your own island with that kind of money.

if you have to ask, you wouldn't understand

United States
Member #142499
May 13, 2013
1322 Posts
Offline
 Posted: January 2, 2016, 7:21 pm - IP Logged

I end up on Vladi Private Islands quite often, can spend hours scoping ut the most attractive islands I can't buy. Though I have found some crazy price developments, like one island sold in 2008 for 3M\$ now going for 60M\$

A \$57 million mark up just for their development? What exactly was the development? Hotels? A mini-theme park? Diamond mining?

http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/int/private-island-type#eng/sales/int/private-island-type

These are much more reasonable. Buy a Cay from the Bahamas and save yourself tens of millions by building exactly what you want.

I too would prefer Cersei Lannister to Tiny Hands. She always pays her debts, hasn't filed 6 bankruptcies and is educated enough to know Nambia isn't a country.

 Page 4 of 6