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Probability of a rollover in PB and MMReply
Zeno: You are looking at the annuity value when you assume 60%. The 32% figure is the amount of actual cash going to the prize.Megamillions has been over $300 million before. In fact the record MegaMillion Jackpot was $363 million. It reached this figure before the odds were changed and lengthened! Now that the odds are changed, I predict that there definitely will be a 400+ Megamillions Jackpot. It will probably happen in one of next four or five $300 million jackpots. The Powerball p
Jan 27, 2004, 5:27 am - prob987 - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a rollover in PB and MMReply
Actually there are relatively few cases of double and triple winners in these long odds games, particularly in the earlier going when the numbers of tickets sold are relatively low. In any case, a probability is only a probability: Any nonzero probability is still a very real possibility. That is something we all believe since we all play the lottery and there are long odds against us actually winning. (I actually was not aware of the lottoreport site (Thank you!) and have up until now esti
Jan 26, 2004, 8:29 pm - prob987 - Jackpot Games Forum

New York Lottery: Some crude probablistic analysis.Reply
I play, very modestly, local lotteries, when their expectation values, pre-tax, get to around 0.4. I calculate the pretax expectation value, the ratio of the potential cash prize(s) to the odds of winning, for lotteries in which I have interest using the same mathematics that I use for the MM and PB posts I make here. I will not drive a significant distance for a lottery unless the expectation value is greater than 0.9. The odds for PB and MM lotteries are so long that their jackpots wou
Jun 28, 2006, 12:34 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

Would They Pay It? Can They Pay It?Reply
I just tried the Smart Luck odds calculator again... You're correct, if you don't include the Cashball (use a zero as the number of bonus numbers), then the odds are displayed as 5,461,512 to 1. When I used 1 as the number of bonus numbers (which to calculate the odds to win a second place prize I should not have done because to win a second place prize doesn't require a player to have the Cashball) then the calculator shows 7,282,016 to 1 odds. That matches the back of NY's play slip.
Jun 30, 2020, 10:59 am - GiveFive - Jackpot Games Forum

MO Pick-6 predictionsReply
Hans The sets I posted here are not generated using a wheel. The predictor never even looks at a single number past or present. The predictor first calculates a seed value based on so many previous lines lexicographical index values which are averaged together. Next the program uses a algorithm which tries to calculate a series of steps needed so that one of these values converted will match a 5 of 6. The program's only purpose is to hit a 5 of 6, all other prize matches are a no
Nov 22, 2014, 2:56 am - RL-RANDOMLOGIC - Jackpot Games Forum

Is Mega Millions paying ?? Or are the odds just too high?Reply
JonD, we all know there is a 0% chance of a winner in a previous draw but the lottery (or at least MUSL) looks at the cumulative probability this way (see point 2 at the bottom of any recent official Powerball jackpot estimate sheet...they call it cumulative coverage ). Also, prior to 10/22 draw was the old MM matrix, a different game with different odds, so it does not make sense to include those draws. No, you're right, but it is possible to include draws with different odds because th
Nov 30, 2013, 11:00 am - LottoMetro - Jackpot Games Forum

It would be fun if an uberball lottery was created.
When I say uberball, I'm talking about a very hard to win game with huge jackpots. I think a game where you have to choose 9 numbers between 1 and 999, and a bonus ball between 1 and 750 could be tough. I'm not very good with math, so I'm not sure what the odds would be. I wonder if people would possibly win the jackpot often. If any of you are math geniuses, maybe you could calculate those odds. This would be a good game to start the jackpot out at $100,000,000, and increase it by $20,
Apr 16, 2011, 10:34 am - jjtheprince - Jackpot Games Forum

Probability of a MegaMillions rollover.Reply
Prob988...quick question if I may. How did you calculate the figure for 0 winners, 89.56% in this instance? I tried taking the average number of tickets sold (19.3m) divided by total odds (175,711,536) and came up with a different number. What factors should I be using?
Nov 4, 2006, 11:38 am - CA LotteryGuy - Jackpot Games Forum

PB lower odds = greater payout than MM??Reply
One can calculate an expectation value, which is the potential reward vs. the risk (i.e. the odds). In general, if the cash values are equal, the expectation value for PB is better than that of MM. However this is not always the case. The expectation value of either game seldom rises above 1.00, at which point the game is considered a good bet. Because of long odds, such a value is only approached when the jackpot is in the $300 million annuity range. It is not possible however to as
Sep 28, 2006, 2:55 pm - Prob988 - Jackpot Games Forum

$500 Million JackpotReply
I am estimating our group will be able to buy around 900 tickets. This includes spending all of the money we can assume we will win. We plan to cover every Mega Ball several times. Therefore our probability of winning is around 1 in 200,000. Those are very good odds. Each member of the group wins $5 million if we hold the only winning ticket. I will leave it to Prob988 to calculate that probability.
Apr 2, 2006, 2:37 pm - LottoGroups - Jackpot Games Forum