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Bell Curve

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 12 years ago by johnph77.

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Texasman's avatar - rocket
Glergenflergen, Texas
United States
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October 13, 2004
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Posted: December 19, 2004, 10:09 pm - IP Logged

Has anyone applied the Bell Curve for selecting possible numbers for any of the lottery games like Pick 3, Pick 4, Cash 5, and so on?

I discovered the "bell" shape by accident while ranking drawn numbers from least to most during a specific time frame.  The numbers drawn, say, 40 draws ago, will drop down one slot from their positions when the next draw is held.  I've found that numbers are drawn that replace the dropped numbers, or they trade places on the chart and the "bell" shape remains pretty much intact. Any insight to this phenomenan is appreciated. 

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    East Jordan, MI
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    June 1, 2001
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    Posted: December 20, 2004, 1:19 pm - IP Logged

    http://www.bayesoft.com/gaussian.html

      Texasman's avatar - rocket
      Glergenflergen, Texas
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      Posted: December 20, 2004, 3:53 pm - IP Logged

      Thank you, Sedertree.  Your information is enlightening and would have saved me from many losses years ago. I will study it and apply strategies as wisely as possible.  Thanks.

        cd_shopper's avatar - 911lotto
        New Member
        Caracas
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        December 16, 2004
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        Posted: December 21, 2004, 5:05 pm - IP Logged

        Hi, i read your post and wanted to guide you a little more.

        Bell curve is used to see the data distribution in a given group of data.

        EX: Lets write down all of this site's posters age. That would be our group of data. If we apply the bell formula, then the curve will have more data concentred in the center of the curve (median) and a little data at the edges (people too young or too old) then you can say "70% of the data is concentred between 20 and 50" and your job there is done.

        But if you apply that curve to "randomness" the result is very different, i DID applied it myself to every position in the pick-3 numbers and the three numbers together, i used my big pick-3 database to see my earning and.... just didnt work.

        You can try it yourself, im just giving you my advice so you dont have to waste the time i did (a month) studing the bell curve.

        Another hint i can give you is that pick-3 numbers are exclusively represented by a UNIFORM distribution. I tried to represent it using a NORMAL(0,1), Binomial, etc... and no model adjust to its behavior.

        If you draw pick-3 numbers in the gauss bell, there will not be any holes or gaps below the curve they will distribute uniformly below the curve.

        You can see my latest work here:

        http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/103083

        Hope i lighten yor way a little more.

        See you.

          Texasman's avatar - rocket
          Glergenflergen, Texas
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          Posted: December 21, 2004, 5:33 pm - IP Logged

          Thank you cdshopper. I will look at your work.

            Hyperdimension's avatar - latest trace_171.gif

            United States
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            November 26, 2004
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            Posted: December 22, 2004, 7:26 pm - IP Logged

            Hi,

            The Bell curve of the Texas Pick 3 night is the next when using Odds and Evens numbers:

            Total draws 3485



            3 odds   12.5%

            2 odds    1 even 37.5%

            2 evens 1 odd    37.5%

            3 evens 12.5 %

            Conclusions:

            The numbers with 2odds 1 even and 2 evens 1 odd are 75% of the total 3485, 12.5% are odds only and 12.5 % are evens only in the Texas Pick 3 night.

            The same Bell curve could be applied for the pick 5 and pick 6 using the next format:

            For pick 5

            5odds, 4 odds 1 even, 3 odds 2 evens, 2 odds 3 evens, 1 odds 4 evens, 5 evens



            For pick 6

            6 odds, 5odds 1 even, 4 odds 2 evens, 3 odds 3 evens, 2 odds 4 evens, 1 odds 5 evens, 6 evens

            Regards

            El pensamiento ordena el caos..

            http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

              Hyperdimension's avatar - latest trace_171.gif

              United States
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              November 26, 2004
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              Posted: December 23, 2004, 1:36 pm - IP Logged

              Hi,

               Thank to Apopogeas, now I know the Pattern Odd/Even does not correspond to a bell curve, it is more close to the uniform distribution..

              Regards

              El pensamiento ordena el caos..

              http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

                Texasman's avatar - rocket
                Glergenflergen, Texas
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                Posted: December 23, 2004, 5:04 pm - IP Logged

                Thanks!

                  cd_shopper's avatar - 911lotto
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                  Posted: December 23, 2004, 6:21 pm - IP Logged

                  I just updated my post, be sure to check it when you have the time.

                  http://www.lotterypost.com/topics10.htm

                  Happy Hollidays.

                    Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                    FEMA Region V Camp #21
                    United States
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                    Posted: December 23, 2004, 7:15 pm - IP Logged

                    I found Hyperdimension's post regarding TX eve. P-3 interesting.  Using that many draws there appears to be an even distribution as it should be.

                    However when using all of the possible boxed combos the statistics should be more like this:

                    3 odd.....15.9%

                    2 odd, 1 even.....34.1%

                    1 odd, 2 even.....34.1%

                    3 even....15.9%

                    There appears to be a long-term bias towards a mix of odd/even in the TX eve. lottery (75% vs. 68.2%).  I'd be curious to see the high/low stats for that same time period.

                    Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                      Hyperdimension's avatar - latest trace_171.gif

                      United States
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                      November 26, 2004
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                      Posted: December 23, 2004, 9:22 pm - IP Logged

                      Hi,

                      Rick G, the next is the full analysis for Texas pick 3 night pattern odd/even (using Lotto Architect) with classic probability and with actual statistics..

                      NOTE: In the previous post I was wrong because I put classic probability instead of actual statistics.

                      Total draws 3485



                      O (odd)

                      E (even)

                      Classic probability                Actual Statistics        Av. expectation    Delays



                                VALUE     %                 VALUE       %

                      OOO     125    12.5                 431      12.37                        8                  7

                      OOE      125    12.5                 449      12.88                        8                 17

                      OEO      125    12.5                 441      12.65                        8                  5

                      OEE       125    12.5                 413      11.85                        8                  1

                      EOO      125    12.5                 429       12.31                        8                 11

                      EOE       125    12.5                 422       12.11                        8                13

                      EEO       125    12.5                 440       12.63                        8                 4

                      EEE        125    12.5                 460       13.20                        8                 3

                      Total    Classic probability                Actual Statistics

                         O           50%                                  48.95%

                         E            50%                                  51.05%

                      Regards



                      El pensamiento ordena el caos..

                      http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

                        johnph77's avatar - avatar
                        CA
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                        December 10, 2003
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                        Posted: December 24, 2004, 7:57 am - IP Logged

                        To expand upon what hyperdimension posted, the mathematical distribution for odd-even occurances in the various games is as follows:

                        Pick 3 - 1-3-3-1 ratio from OOO to EEE. As has been pointed out, this results in 12.5%-37.5%-37-5%-12.5% distribution or 125-375-375-125 possibilities.

                        Pick 4 - 1-4-6-4-1 ratio from OOOO to EEEE, or 625-2500-3750-2500-625 possibilities.

                        Pick 5 - 1-5-10-10-5-1 ratio from OOOOO to EEEEE, or 3125-15625-31250-31250-15625-3125 possibilities.

                        Pick 6 - 1-6-15-20-15-6-1 ratio from OOOOOO to EEEEEE, or 15625-93750-234375-312500-234375-93750-15625 possibilities.

                        Pick 7 - 1-7-21-35-35-21-7-1 ratio from OOOOOOO to EEEEEEE, or 78125-546875-1640625-2734375-2734375-1640625-546875-78125 possibilities.

                        Note that the numbers used for the ratios are derived from Pascal's Triangle.

                        gl

                        john

                        Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                        Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                         =^.^=