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Reduction Methods

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 12 years ago by Maverick.

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Posted: January 9, 2005, 11:29 pm - IP Logged

Is it better to use 5 reductons with 98% accurracy or 1 reduction with 90.4% accurracy?

Does the multi reduction method give more eliminated combinations or does it give more chances for your prediction to go wrong?

You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

    Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
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    Posted: January 10, 2005, 10:08 am - IP Logged

    Which reduction methods are you referring to?

    With most reduction methods I have used, another variable that needs to be considered is your budget - how many tickets you want to play.

     

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      Greece
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      Posted: January 10, 2005, 10:16 am - IP Logged

      Your overall success with 5 different reductions will be 0.98^5=0.9039=90.39% so they seem to be equal in effectiveness with the 1 reduction method. In general, it is better to try improving fewer reduction methods than using many with higher success ratio.

      If you have something to do, at least do it well...

        LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
        Tx
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        Posted: January 10, 2005, 10:54 am - IP Logged

        Yes, I do think that it's better to improve a few reduction methods than to use too many, because yes, too many reduction methods do give your prediction more chances to fail.

        There of course, as Todd says, have to be a balance of "all factors" involved.

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          JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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          Posted: January 11, 2005, 10:38 am - IP Logged

          Todd,

           What I'm after here is -What's the most effective way to filter/reduce combinations. Is it by using many or just a few to achieve the amount of reduction your looking for. Which method gives you the greatest reward with the least pitfalls.

          A follow up question to all this is- Can you get a meaningful amount of reductions without exceeding a 100%+ error ratio?

          You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

          Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
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            Posted: January 11, 2005, 11:05 am - IP Logged
            Quote: Originally posted by JKING on January 11, 2005



            Todd,

             What I'm after here is -What's the most effective way to filter/reduce combinations. Is it by using many or just a few to achieve the amount of reduction your looking for. Which method gives you the greatest reward with the least pitfalls.

            A follow up question to all this is- Can you get a meaningful amount of reductions without exceeding a 100%+ error ratio?





            Just by the nature of reductions, you are introducing error to the game.  You are taking away possible outcomes.  Everybody has their own opinion on what is the best way to reduce combinations, but with lotto games nobody can prove they are right.  That's because even if a game has had 2,000 past drawings, there is still not enough data to test against the millions of possible outcomes.  With Pick 3 and Pick 4 it is possible to see how your method would have done in the past.

            Whenever you're choosing a reduction method, choose one that you feel comfortable with, and what makes sense to you.  Follow a budget plan, and track it over time.

            Also, use the predictions board to test your methods before you actually play them.  I guarantee if you start consistently nailing some winning tickets, you will become very popular!


             

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              SirMetro's avatar - center
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              Posted: January 11, 2005, 5:09 pm - IP Logged

              Reduction method<===>it's what happens to my wallet whenever I play the lottery.

              Sir Metro

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                Greece
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                Posted: January 12, 2005, 11:06 am - IP Logged

                Quote: Originally posted by JKING on January 11, 2005




                Todd,

                What I'm after here is -What's the most effective way to filter/reduce combinations. Is it by using many or just a few to achieve the amount of reduction your looking for. Which method gives you the greatest reward with the least pitfalls.

                A follow up question to all this is- Can you get a meaningful amount of reductions without exceeding a 100%+ error ratio?








                You cannot exceed 100% error neither fall below 0% error. The only way to get 0% error is to apply filters that do not remove anything, which means you have to play all possible combinations. The only way to get 100% error, is to apply filters that remove everything (or complementary filters), which means not to play any combination. Anything else results in an error ratio between 0 & 100% (excluding). Your overall success ratio is the multiplication of each filter's success ratio. It is better to have fewer filters applied because you have fewer sources of potential errors (the filters), so you can more easily control the outcome.



                SirMetro, if you don't apply reduction methods, you are already broke unless you don't play the lottery. So, it is not the reduction methods the reason your wallet is empty. Reduction methods are tools and thus you have to set them reasonably correct.

                If you have something to do, at least do it well...

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                  Posted: January 12, 2005, 12:03 pm - IP Logged

                  If you want to know how well your reduction system is working, you simply check a copy of the file before reduction and after reduction with the drawing results and adjust your reduction methods accordingly.





                  RJOh

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
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                    Posted: January 12, 2005, 12:24 pm - IP Logged

                    Quote: Originally posted by SirMetro on January 11, 2005



                    Reduction method<===>it's what happens to my wallet whenever I play the lottery.





                    Sir Metro












                      Good one!

                     

                    Check the State Lottery Report Card
                    What grade did your lottery earn?

                     

                    Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
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                      Posted: January 12, 2005, 1:03 pm - IP Logged

                      I agree with Todd....use the most effective reduction methods in your aresenal until you have a manageable amount of picks that fits your budget.





                      I have a daily and/or weekly budget and will do any reduction it takes to stay close to that budget.

                      Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                        hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
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                        Posted: January 13, 2005, 8:05 pm - IP Logged

                        Actually, some reduction that leads to a large data set of possible numbers could be used as boundaries for your own "smart QP"... I think that's what RJOh's basic program does...

                        let's look to the powerball for an example...

                        Current absolute observed positional boundaries...

                        White Ball 1:::  low=1  high=32 ::: eliminate 33-49
                        White Ball 2:::  low=2  high=45 ::: eliminate 46-50
                        White Ball 3:::  low=6  high=50 ::: eliminate 3-5 and 51
                        White Ball 4:::  low=8  high=52 ::: eliminate 4-7
                        White Ball 5:::  low=10 high=53 ::: eliminate 5-9


                        Red Ball :::  low=1  high=42 ::: NO obvious Reductions

                        The above list assumes max possible SORTED range as follows...

                        White Ball 1:::  low=1  high=49 ::: lower than WB2
                        White Ball 2:::  low=2  high=50 ::: higher than WB1/ Lower than WB3
                        White Ball 3:::  low=3  high=51 ::: higher than WB2/ Lower than WB4
                        White Ball 4:::  low=4  high=52 ::: higher than WB3/ Lower than WB5
                        White Ball 5:::  low=5  high=53 ::: Higher than WB4

                        If you look at raw unsorted DRAW order, this list is meaningless... draw order in powerball has already shown a range of 1-53 in each white ball position.

                        If you play with sorted history, you could have eliminated as above and not been wrong in 237 draws... but hindsight is 20/20... sure any number can come up any time ( in the last 5 draws, there were a total of 25 numbers drawn, TEN have been in the 20's decade...40% !!! trend? maybe ;-)  )

                        The top list is 100% observed (excel MAX and MIN) but if you want to accept percentage risk, you can reduce down to 90%, 80%.... eliminate spikes, etc...

                        Does it work? not by my wallet, but it is at least a foundation from which to build...  I play one ticket mostly pr draw, falling within the 100% range... still millions of combos, but it is a step in the right direction.

                        good luck!

                        Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

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                          Posted: January 14, 2005, 5:20 am - IP Logged
                          Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on January 13, 2005



                          Actually, some reduction that leads to a large data set of possible numbers could be used as boundaries for your own "smart QP"... I think that's what RJOh's basic program does...

                          let's look to the powerball for an example...

                          Current absolute observed positional boundaries...

                          White Ball 1:::  low=1  high=32 ::: eliminate 33-49
                          White Ball 2:::  low=2  high=45 ::: eliminate 46-50
                          White Ball 3:::  low=6  high=50 ::: eliminate 3-5 and 51
                          White Ball 4:::  low=8  high=52 ::: eliminate 4-7
                          White Ball 5:::  low=10 high=53 ::: eliminate 5-9


                          Red Ball :::  low=1  high=42 ::: NO obvious Reductions

                          The above list assumes max possible SORTED range as follows...

                          White Ball 1:::  low=1  high=49 ::: lower than WB2
                          White Ball 2:::  low=2  high=50 ::: higher than WB1/ Lower than WB3
                          White Ball 3:::  low=3  high=51 ::: higher than WB2/ Lower than WB4
                          White Ball 4:::  low=4  high=52 ::: higher than WB3/ Lower than WB5
                          White Ball 5:::  low=5  high=53 ::: Higher than WB4

                          If you look at raw unsorted DRAW order, this list is meaningless... draw order in powerball has already shown a range of 1-53 in each white ball position.

                          If you play with sorted history, you could have eliminated as above and not been wrong in 237 draws... but hindsight is 20/20... sure any number can come up any time ( in the last 5 draws, there were a total of 25 numbers drawn, TEN have been in the 20's decade...40% !!! trend? maybe ;-)  )

                          The top list is 100% observed (excel MAX and MIN) but if you want to accept percentage risk, you can reduce down to 90%, 80%.... eliminate spikes, etc...

                          Does it work? not by my wallet, but it is at least a foundation from which to build...  I play one ticket mostly pr draw, falling within the 100% range... still millions of combos, but it is a step in the right direction.

                          good luck!





                          Hi Hypersonic,

                          I'm not sure how you guys play that powerball game, white balls and red balls etc, so haven't got your explanation...Can you please provide an example for any 6/xx( 6/45 or 6/49 ) or any 5/xx game


                           

                            johnph77's avatar - avatar
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                            Posted: January 14, 2005, 6:04 am - IP Logged

                            Fenix -

                            Powerball is a 5/53+1/42 game. The five balls are white, the bonus ball is red.

                            gl

                            john

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                              Posted: January 14, 2005, 6:22 am - IP Logged
                              Quote: Originally posted by johnph77 on January 14, 2005



                              Fenix -

                              Powerball is a 5/53+1/42 game. The five balls are white, the bonus ball is red.

                              gl

                              john






                              That means Hypersonic was thinking about positioning...well, in my opinion it may work but not necessary...have seen all winning numbers from the last two decades with most of them from the last decade, which may be a fine occurrence for a patient "trapper".

                              "Not necessary" means wouldn't advice someone to try it with some more tickets than usual...especially after seeing some prertty strange draws in some lotteries, like two all odd winning numbers in a row or such. In lottery everything may happen anytime.