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# The Pigskin Challenge for Saturday 01-22-

Topic closed. 32 replies. Last post 13 years ago by ayenowitall.

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United States
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April 22, 2004
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 1:18 pm - IP Logged

Actually, I wrote quite a long post about this. Unfortunately, it was eaten alive. I'm not even going to try to recapture it. I'm sure you've all heard it before.

Good luck'

aye'

Pennsylvania
United States
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April 6, 2003
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 1:32 pm - IP Logged

Aye

If you're after improving prediction skills... we need to discuss the methods rather than look at just results. Whether it be an open discussion on methods, tools, formulas, or whatever... accuracy can come a bit later...

but good luck getting people to open up about the systems in use for a jackpot game... for the obvious reasons...

but for the heck of it (and one more attempt to get some open PB discussion going) here's my current system....

1 excel workbook with 4 sheets...

Sheet 1 is a Long Term full history list of sort order numbers drawn set up as such...

say you are on drawing 100, it takes for example the MODE of draws 1 thru 99 and uses that as the guess for draw 100. error correction is performed by taking the difference of the draw result from the MODE prediction, the most frequent error number is counted and used as an error correction factor for that mode. Each time a match is made, it produces a zero, these are counted for a loosely adapted neural network weighting algorithm. I use the following stats, MODE, MEDIAN and FORECAST to get 3 picks, an error corrected pick for each stat. the 3 picks are combined into one using a weighted average formula that takes each stat's position... for example ((MODE WB1*number of correct MODE WB1 hits)+(MEDIAN WB1 * number of correct MEDIAN WB1 hits)+(FORECAST WB1 * number of correct FORECAST  WB1 hits)) the whole thing is then divided by the total number of correct WB1 hits... this allows for the one with more correct hits to carry more weight.

Sheet 2 is a Midrange full history list but with stats taken back only 28 draws

for example draw 129 MODE pick compares draw 129 to MODE of draws 100 thru 128. similar calculations to sheet one result in one pick

Sheet 3 is a Short Term full history list that gets it's picks from only the last 3 draws, for example for draw 100, it takes the MODE of draws 97, 98 and 99. similar reduction methods end in one pick.

Sheet 4 is my main sheet, it gathers the picks from sheets 1 thru 3 and uses an overall weighted average to come up with my one pick for the game... all numbers use ROUND rather than INT because round is more accurate where INT just truncates the decimals. Sheet 4 also has a full history list in both draw and sort order and has a freq. counter showing how many times each number was drawn overall AND by position for both draw and sort. I also, for convenience keep mu cash option jackpot calculator on there. It figures jackpot - 35% to accurately give you an idea of what you really would win vs. what they advertise...

And there we have it, for all of its flaws and imperfections, this is how I generate my one pick and of course I am wide open to comments, in particular possible refinements I may have missed (that's how the open discussion would benefit all of us)...

I understand why people would want to avoid opening up with methods, so I suggest the following... open discussion of just picking the red powerball... that would be a coup! let's work on that because then maybe more would be willing to share. ;-)

Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

Lee's Summit, Mo.
United States
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August 26, 2004
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 1:42 pm - IP Logged

Aye...there were only a couple of #s hit this week.  But you certainly can't get discouraged.  At least we have more challengers each week.  So in that sense you definitely succeeded because you have spearheaded this effort.  If we do see some improvement it probably will be later than sooner.  I feel it will definitely take time, involving trial and error, rather than a quick breakthrough.  So the game plan has to be to just keep hitting between guard and tackle-a dedicated, relentless effort to break down the opposition.,,which of course is the jackpot.  A little thought is required too.  Hopefully, the correct approach will evolve from all of this.

Aye, you are to be commended for your effort.  Please don't desert your post as coordinator of the Challennge at a time when the tide of battle still stands in the balance.

Greenwich, CT
United States
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May 24, 2004
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

Hypersoniq,

Thanks for sharing your method.  You're a lot more open with methods than most of us, myself included.

Since I'm still developing my system, I'm holding onto the hope that I've stumbled upon a great idea...lol.

I think I would feel comfortable sharing my method under two circumstances.  One, I determine it doesn't work, haha....or Two, I meet in person with two to three other dedicated LP'ers.  We would sign all the contractual agreements...confidentiality, share of winnings, etc.  And then we'd sit down, compare our strategies, and see if three or four angles are better than one.

Greenwich, CT
United States
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May 24, 2004
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 2:59 pm - IP Logged

Powerball Drawing 1/22/05: 11-23-32-33-34 / 38

kbcherokee: 6-11-16-22-28-29-30-44-45-50

plnwebguy: 1-2-6-11-26-30-31-45-48-50

ayenowitall: 14-20-27-36-45

getpaid: 1-3-5-12-13-14-25-39-48-50

fja: 3-5-7-12-22-25-32-37-41-47

pigskin: 4-8-9-14-23-24-39-40-41-46

litebets27: 17-19-21-28-34-36-37-38-42-43

jag331: 4-6-8-9-10-16-31-40-51-53

Keep your chin up, Aye, we'll get 'em next time!

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 3:07 pm - IP Logged

People do share their systems and there are some success stories as I recalled when checking one of my old posts. http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/99730  Success doesn't happen as often as failure, so it's forgotten and some players expectations are not realistic considering the odds of winning in most lotteries.

RJOh

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one *

Virginia
United States
Member #1712
June 20, 2003
1549 Posts
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 3:33 pm - IP Logged

Tso-gali-I

My 2-cents is that I have given some of my information several times in here. i just don't know if anyone has used any of it. I didn't get any feedback if they did or not. I just know what I use and it gets me very close at times, more often than not. So, to me; it's working. It's not where I want it be naturally, but it's getting closer all the time.

I would encourage all concerned, to not give up on their system and "dreams."  That's not what all of this about by no means. keep doing what your doing, keep having fun, and let's learn by everything that is said in here.

See ya's on Wednesday...

Chief

May the warm winds of heaven blow softly upon your house. May  the Great Spirit bless all who enter there. May your mocassins make happy tracks in many snows. And may the rainbow always touch your shoulder.

Maryland
United States
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January 14, 2005
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 3:39 pm - IP Logged

Thanks for the welcome Jag331.

Aye, I'm trying to perfect a system based on eliminating pass picks. But as you can see from the results, I haven't perfected it as of yet. But i'll keep trying. This idea of a challange was a good idea to compare my results with others. Thank you also.

Beautiful Florida
United States
Member #5709
July 18, 2004
21145 Posts
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 3:58 pm - IP Logged
Quote: Originally posted by ayenowitall on January 22, 2005

I started this challenge for the purpose of promoting improvement of prediction skills. I really don't see that happening. There's been nothing here in terms of accuracy and consistency to indicate that anyone is making any progress. It seems to me that we're getting worse instead of better. Is anybody really working at this? Are we just going through the same old tired motions for each draw? We seem to be drifting aimlessly.

aye'

if everyone could predict with the accuracy your looking for, this would'nt be much of a challenge, now would it?  everyone who predicts has their own method, or system and believes in it. aye, i'm not trying to put you down in any way, but i don't think anyone can forsee when or where accuracy or consistency could prevail in this type of game( powerball ). the odds are stacked against us already. besides, where would we be without luck.....!

" You can not control the Wind, but you can direct the Sail "

Virginia
United States
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June 20, 2003
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 4:03 pm - IP Logged

Tso-gali-I

One other thing that was unusual with this draw is that two of the number's that "hit" this time,(#32 & #33)  "hit" last draw also. You very, very seldom ever see that happen. So, naturally when your choosing the number's your going to play, you wouldn't be looking for three number's to "hit" in a row again. The odds are just not there. It's just like a Horse Race, you wouldn't bet on a Horse that hasen't won a Race in 100-Starts... right?

Let's face it, the PB and the MM games have done some unusual things lately, but that's the fun of it. Trying to out-guess where it's all going.

Chief

May the warm winds of heaven blow softly upon your house. May  the Great Spirit bless all who enter there. May your mocassins make happy tracks in many snows. And may the rainbow always touch your shoulder.

Maryland
United States
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January 14, 2005
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 4:06 pm - IP Logged

litebets27

Beautiful Florida
United States
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July 18, 2004
21145 Posts
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 4:07 pm - IP Logged

total agreement chief

" You can not control the Wind, but you can direct the Sail "

United States
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February 11, 2004
187 Posts
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 Posted: January 23, 2005, 11:44 pm - IP Logged

My system is a combination of my "drop ball theory" and draw history.  This last drawing I decided to do something new to tweak the system a bit and that was to leave out the 5 balls from the previous drawing to narrow things down a bit.  I ended up leaving out 32 and 33 and going with 30 and 31 instead - so much for the tweak.

Virginia
United States
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June 20, 2003
1549 Posts
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 Posted: January 24, 2005, 8:24 am - IP Logged
Quote: Originally posted by Litebets27 on January 23, 2005

Thanks for the welcome Jag331.

Aye, I'm trying to perfect a system based on eliminating pass picks. But as you can see from the results, I haven't perfected it as of yet. But i'll keep trying. This idea of a challange was a good idea to compare my results with others. Thank you also.

Just curious, but how can you have a "system" to choose number's without having the history of past draws/picks?

Chief

May the warm winds of heaven blow softly upon your house. May  the Great Spirit bless all who enter there. May your mocassins make happy tracks in many snows. And may the rainbow always touch your shoulder.

United States
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April 22, 2004
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 Posted: January 25, 2005, 3:27 am - IP Logged
Quote: Originally posted by hypersoniq on January 23, 2005

If you're after improving prediction skills... we need to discuss the methods rather than look at just results. Whether it be an open discussion on methods, tools, formulas, or whatever... accuracy can come a bit later...

but good luck getting people to open up about the systems in use for a jackpot game... for the obvious reasons...

but for the heck of it (and one more attempt to get some open PB discussion going) here's my current system....

hypersoniq,

My method is an ongoing work in progress. I seldom use the same amount of draw history, but it usually ends up being in the neighborhood of fifty draws for the 5/53 matrix of the PowerBall game. I basically index all the numbers based on that draw history through a function of occurrence and recency that I've developed. Then I rule out numbers based strictly on probability and statistics surrounding that history. I don't use any abstract concepts. If it can't be mathematically figured by probability, I don't consider it as a factor in ruling out numbers. I'm always working with new ideas on those probabiltiy factors in order to fine tune my method. I don't think anything will work every single time, but a good method should show promise above chance in a relatively short time frame. I try to rule out every number until I get down to my final selections.

From here on in, I'm going with only five numbers. I might use six in a pinch. If I ever manage to catch all five of the 5/53 numbers, I want to make sure I cash for 100 grand and have a reasonable shot at hitting the big one. Using too many numbers is just guesswork and a waste of money. I think we ought to at least strive to have more numbers right than wrong. Using ten numbers, we already know right off the bat that five of them are wrong before the first ball is even drawn.

I've not been too specific about my methods, and I can understand others not wanting to give too many details. Can you imagine how sick you would be if you finally came up with all the numbers and everbody else hit them on the same draw? That would have to hurt.

Good luck,

aye'

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