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1-digit carryovers

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 12 years ago by emilyg.

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Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
Wisconsin
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Posted: March 3, 2005, 8:30 am - IP Logged

I've seen enough people posting about how one method of filtering your combos to get them down to a reasonable number in Pick 3 is to play only those that have at least one digit from the previous drawing, so I decided to actually look at the numbers.

The following is from all records (since each game started) in the Mid Day games only (since those are the ones I follow) -- It was done using VersaBet's "combo" report. That report shows the number of games that there was a 0-carried digit, and a 2-carried digit. Therefore:

(TOTAL DRAWS) - (0-CARRIED) - (2-CARRIED) = NUMBER OF GAMES WHERE THERE WAS A 1-DIGIT CARRYOVER.

Then: (1-digit carryover) divided by (TOTAL DRAWS) = PERCENT 1-DIGIT CARRYOVER

STATE PERCENT

CA 49.8

DC 46.7

DE 47.3

GA 46.2

IL 48.7

IN 43.8

KY 43.4

MD 47.6

MI 46.9

MO 46.8

NJ 47.4

NY 49.3

OH 48.4

PA 51.5

SC 48.5

TS 46.2

TX 46.7

VA 47.4

I invite anyone who follows the evening games to do those, but I doubt there will show a significant difference. But based upon the above, you are actually slightly better off betting that no digit will carry-over from the last drawing. At best, this is another 50-50 Indicator; much like a coin flip. And of course, this is like all filters/indicators in that it holds true for the long term. Within the short term (maybe a week or two past history) just about anything can happen. So sometimes it seems the best thing to do is look at the short term to see what's happening. But follow it until it changes, because it will change.

============

How can you tell if a politician is lying?

Answer: His lips are moving.

    Prometheus1's avatar - trace9

    United States
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    Posted: March 3, 2005, 9:52 am - IP Logged

     The final figures are 1 digit carry over right? Does it also include 2 digit carry overs as well ? This was very good research Badger and thank you for the time you must have spent. It really kills me that no one else on the forum said WTG or thanks. They throw those "WTG's" out for Car tag numbers. Serious research post that take time and energy get nothing I suppose.  Well, here is something. Thanks Badger!   

      PROMETHEUS       

      CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
      ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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      Posted: March 3, 2005, 10:07 am - IP Logged

       Here are the stats for Florida, if my math is correct.

       0 Carried  38.8%  2 Carried 13.2%  1 Carried 48%

       Thanks Badger for bringing attention to this.

       

       Carbob

       

        takeitez's avatar - japheth
        Carters Lake, Ga.
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        Posted: March 3, 2005, 10:17 am - IP Logged

        Thanks Badger for the research, very useful.

          I would like your opinion on this thought: wonder how it would affect the percent of 1-digit carryovers taking into consideration  doubles have only 2 digits to carry over as opposed the the 3 digits in a 6-way. Don't you think it might bring the final number closer to the 50% mark?

          Very nice work and thanks again for posting your findings

        ez

                  No Pity!Guitar  Drum ........ in the long run........

          four4me's avatar - gate1
          MD
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          Posted: March 3, 2005, 10:36 am - IP Logged

          I like what you posted about this because i follow the carry overs. However are you refering to a one or two digit carying over from a midday draw to and evening draw or midday to midday.

          I think that if i were tracking the carrys i would be looking at draw to draw.

          I look at the results pages on here frequently and many states show carry overs every day. i haven't broken it down to percentages but by observations i would have to say that it would pay to play the caryovers.

            Prometheus1's avatar - trace9

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            Posted: March 3, 2005, 10:51 am - IP Logged

              Interesting to consider that half the time you could use a wheel of the numbers that didn't hit. Only use the other 7 numbers each time. Say the number yesterday was 789. We could then wheel 01234 56.  Thats only 35 numbers

             Digits: 0123456

            Results:
            012 013 014 015 016 023 024 025 026 034 035 036 045 046 056 123 124 125 126 134 135 136 145 146 156 234 235 236 245 246 256 345 346 356 456
            No. of Results: 35
             

              PROMETHEUS       

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              Poway CA (San Diego County)
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              Posted: March 3, 2005, 12:05 pm - IP Logged
              Quote: Originally posted by Prometheus1 on March 3, 2005



                Interesting to consider that half the time you could use a wheel of the numbers that didn't hit. Only use the other 7 numbers each time. Say the number yesterday was 789. We could then wheel 01234 56.  Thats only 35 numbers

               Digits: 0123456

              Results:
              012 013 014 015 016 023 024 025 026 034 035 036 045 046 056 123 124 125 126 134 135 136 145 146 156 234 235 236 245 246 256 345 346 356 456
              No. of Results: 35
               





              It wouldn't be half the time.  If 1-digit repeat is just under 50% then 0-digit and 2-digit and 3-digit COMBINED make up the other 50%.


               

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                Poway CA (San Diego County)
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                Posted: March 3, 2005, 12:07 pm - IP Logged

                Thank you, Badger for the very interesting information.  It is one of the things I look at (combined data base) on each of the states I track.  Your figures are consistant with what I have found.

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                  East Jordan, MI
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                  Posted: March 3, 2005, 12:25 pm - IP Logged

                  Nice research Badger....



                  Question....



                  Are these CO digit stats for any position, same or both?



                  ...../George

                    Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                    Wisconsin
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                    Posted: March 3, 2005, 8:27 pm - IP Logged
                    Quote: Originally posted by Prometheus1 on March 3, 2005


                     The final figures are 1 digit carry over right? Does it also include 2 digit carry overs as well ? This was very good research Badger and thank you for the time you must have spent. It really kills me that no one else on the forum said WTG or thanks. They throw those "WTG's" out for Car tag numbers. Serious research post that take time and energy get nothing I suppose.  Well, here is something. Thanks Badger!   




                    No Prometheus, the figures are strictly for 1-digit carryovers. The amount of 2-digit carryovers was subtracted from the total draws (as was the no-digit carryovers) before doing the percentage.

                    Thanks not necessary. I chose to do it and if it helps anyone that's great. I just put it out there.

                    ============

                    How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                    Answer: His lips are moving.

                      Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
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                      Posted: March 3, 2005, 8:30 pm - IP Logged
                      Quote: Originally posted by takeitez on March 3, 2005



                      Thanks Badger for the research, very useful.

                        I would like your opinion on this thought: wonder how it would affect the percent of 1-digit carryovers taking into consideration  doubles have only 2 digits to carry over as opposed the the 3 digits in a 6-way. Don't you think it might bring the final number closer to the 50% mark?

                        Very nice work and thanks again for posting your findings

                      ez




                      You could have a good point there EZ...but even if it does bring it closer to 50% I just suspect that it won't bring it significantly over 50% -- and therefore it would still be statistically one of those "50/50" tools. Not that that is bad or anything. But it isn't something you want to bet the farm on. LOL !

                      ============

                      How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                      Answer: His lips are moving.

                        Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
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                        Posted: March 3, 2005, 8:42 pm - IP Logged
                        Quote: Originally posted by four4me on March 3, 2005



                        I like what you posted about this because i follow the carry overs. However are you refering to a one or two digit carying over from a midday draw to and evening draw or midday to midday.

                        I think that if i were tracking the carrys i would be looking at draw to draw.

                        I look at the results pages on here frequently and many states show carry overs every day. i haven't broken it down to percentages but by observations i would have to say that it would pay to play the caryovers.





                        I prefer to not combine draws (mid day and evening) So the stats above were strictly for Mid Day draws, as I mentioned in the post. So that would be consecutive mid day draws. To me, mid day and evening are separate games and I view them as such. To each his own.

                        Also, the figures are strictly for ONE DIGIT CARRYOVERS. Two-digit carryovers happen much less often. (approximately 10-12% of the time) That is just probability.

                        The main reason I did the work was that I wanted to see for myself how often in the LONG TERM (again,, short term ANYTHING can happen in a Pick 3) a single digit carrried over to the next draw. I've seen people who bank heavily on one digit carrying over from the previous draw, and I just didn't see it as being THAT significant. The arithmetic bore me out. So if you play one-digit carryover as a significant filter, it will work almost half the time in the long run.  And half the time it won't. I think people probably will be more likely to REMEMBER the times it did, because it "proved" itself to them when it did. That's just human nature. We tend to pay more attention to things where we feel we were "right" and tend to forget those times we were not.

                        ============

                        How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                        Answer: His lips are moving.

                          Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
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                          Posted: March 3, 2005, 8:46 pm - IP Logged
                          Quote: Originally posted by Sedertree on March 3, 2005


                          Nice research Badger....

                          Question....

                          Are these CO digit stats for any position, same or both?

                          ...../George


                          Hi George ! Good to "talk" with you again. The stats are strictly for ANY position in the following draw, in the SAME game. (in this case, the mid day games for reach state as I mentioned) IOW they are not positional stats.

                          ============

                          How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                          Answer: His lips are moving.

                            Sandy K's avatar - graphic pub.jpg
                            Clarkston, Michigan
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                            Posted: March 3, 2005, 8:54 pm - IP Logged

                            Badger, I am a proponent of combining the mid-eve draws......like you said to each his own..........curious though, on a merged file, does that 1 digit carryover percentage hold true for the merged draw...........it would be interesting. 

                            I don't have the new versabet so I have no way of knowing........but I suspect that it would be higher for Michigan with the combined draw since that is the state I track..............

                            Sandy

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                              HOUSTON
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                              Posted: March 3, 2005, 9:12 pm - IP Logged

                              This is all good info for the uninitiated.  I agree with the 1 repeating number numbers, but I also agree that if you want to narrow down a list of picks that's one way to do it.  Especially if it's been, say, twice as long as normal or more since a number repeated. 

                              I show two numbers repeating about every 6 to 7 draws on the states I track which is about 16% or so I think.  That's with day and night draws figured separately.

                              Another interesting piece of info is that a combination of numbers picked within the last 45 days will repeat in ANY order about once in every 4 to 5 draws.  That is, if 123 came in within the last 45 draws, there's a possibility that it could come in again but as, for example, 321.  Of course, playing 45 previous numbers might be too many.  Maybe you could remove those that already repeated, approximately 10 or so on average.  Then maybe you could leave out doubles as non-doubles would have a better chance to repeat because of the number of combinations (6 to 3).  But that's not to say that doubles don't repeat, they do.  Rarely does a pick within the last 5, let's say, repeat so soon, so that's 5 more that could be removed from your list.  That leaves how many?  45 - 10 previous repeaters - 10 (1 in 4) doubles - the last 5 = 20.  So, 20 picks every night is $5 a night at .25 a ticket (you know where) trying to win $37.50 so you'd need to win once every 7 draws to at least break even and if it sticks to average you should be able to do that.  So, what do you think of that one?

                              Only those who attempt the absurd can achieve the impossible.