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1-digit carryovers

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 12 years ago by emilyg.

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Sandy K's avatar - graphic pub.jpg
Clarkston, Michigan
United States
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January 6, 2002
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Posted: March 3, 2005, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

Interesting observation, Three2001!!  Thank you.

Sandy

    Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
    Wisconsin
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    March 27, 2003
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    Posted: March 3, 2005, 10:29 pm - IP Logged
    Quote: Originally posted by Three2001 on March 3, 2005



    This is all good info for the uninitiated.  I agree with the 1 repeating number numbers, but I also agree that if you want to narrow down a list of picks that's one way to do it.  Especially if it's been, say, twice as long as normal or more since a number repeated. 

    I show two numbers repeating about every 6 to 7 draws on the states I track which is about 16% or so I think.  That's with day and night draws figured separately.

    Another interesting piece of info is that a combination of numbers picked within the last 45 days will repeat in ANY order about once in every 4 to 5 draws.  That is, if 123 came in within the last 45 draws, there's a possibility that it could come in again but as, for example, 321.  Of course, playing 45 previous numbers might be too many.  Maybe you could remove those that already repeated, approximately 10 or so on average.  Then maybe you could leave out doubles as non-doubles would have a better chance to repeat because of the number of combinations (6 to 3).  But that's not to say that doubles don't repeat, they do.  Rarely does a pick within the last 5, let's say, repeat so soon, so that's 5 more that could be removed from your list.  That leaves how many?  45 - 10 previous repeaters - 10 (1 in 4) doubles - the last 5 = 20.  So, 20 picks every night is $5 a night at .25 a ticket (you know where) trying to win $37.50 so you'd need to win once every 7 draws to at least break even and if it sticks to average you should be able to do that.  So, what do you think of that one?





    I think I likely wouldn't have the discipline to stick it out as long as I needed to....I'll chase something until the amount I have already bet on it, subtracted from the potential payout (in this case the $37.50) will only make me a profit (if it hits the next day) of less than 10 bucks.  WHen that happens, I cut my losses and look elsewhere.

    I agree with what you say in your first paragraph. Again, as I've mentioned and stressed, the percentages I posted were for the ENTIRE GAME in each case (since it started in its particular state). In the SHORT run, if you haven't had a one-digit carryover in a particular game in 4 or more draws, then the chance that you WILL soon have one is much better. It's like using sums. I really personally ONLY can use sums for the "odd-even" aspect. IOW if you've had 4 or more of wither odd or even sums in a row, it's likely soon that you're going to get the one that hasn't hit (odd or even). Because in the LONG term, they will "average out".  But I've given up trying to chase specific "over due" sums. Take NJ Mid Day for instance right now...the sum of 6 has been out 68 days and 16 has been out 71 days. That's a lot....but there's nothing to say that the 6-16 couldn't be out another 20 days. You can go broke chasing overdue sums, because a particular sum can be out a LONG time. I learned that the hard way.

    ============

    How can you tell if a politician is lying?

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      Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
      Wisconsin
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      Posted: March 3, 2005, 10:47 pm - IP Logged
      Quote: Originally posted by Sandy K on March 3, 2005



      Badger, I am a proponent of combining the mid-eve draws......like you said to each his own..........curious though, on a merged file, does that 1 digit carryover percentage hold true for the merged draw...........it would be interesting. 

      I don't have the new versabet so I have no way of knowing........but I suspect that it would be higher for Michigan with the combined draw since that is the state I track..............





      Sandy, the following is what I show but only up through last Sunday for the MI evening game.

      Total draws = 8,785

      2-digit carryovers = 1,139

      0-digit carryovers = 3,453

      Therefore: 8785 minus (1139+3453) = 4193 1-digit carryovers

      4193 divided by 8785 = 47.7% one-digit carryovers.

      The MI Mid Day game shows 46.9% one-digit carryovers, so the difference is not statistically significant. (only 0.8% between the two games)

      There is a built-in error but that would happen so infrequently that it is statiscally insignificant...that being any time the exact same combination hits 2 draws in a row. It happens, but so very seldom. That would be a THREE-DIGIT carryover, and those would be included in the above number shown for one-digit carryovers. I seriously doubt it would change the percentage.

      ============

      How can you tell if a politician is lying?

      Answer: His lips are moving.

        Sandy K's avatar - graphic pub.jpg
        Clarkston, Michigan
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        Posted: March 3, 2005, 11:26 pm - IP Logged

        Thank you, Badger...............

        Sandy

          Justin's avatar - hatchap
          Stevens Point
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          Posted: March 3, 2005, 11:31 pm - IP Logged

          it can be quite profitable to track exact carryovers by position.

          good luck

          I believe life is about finding someone you cant live without

          And showing them how much you care every day of every month of every year

            emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

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            Posted: March 3, 2005, 11:45 pm - IP Logged

            thanks - great info

            love to nibble those micey feet.