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Tracking Ball Set Changes

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 12 years ago by four4me.

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Do you keep track of ball set changes in your game?

Yes. It is part of my number selection strategy [ 6 ]  [24.00%]
Yes. I do not use this info in my strategies [ 3 ]  [12.00%]
No [ 15 ]  [60.00%]
Other (I will post details) [ 1 ]  [4.00%]
Total Valid Votes [ 25 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
four4me's avatar - gate1
MD
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Posted: March 7, 2005, 9:45 am - IP Logged
Quote: Originally posted by ayenowitall on March 7, 2005



Would someone please explain how changes in ballsets or machines actually make a difference? I presume that the idea is that the randomness of the draw is somehow affected. Exactly how does that happen and to what degree does it happen?

Just wondering,

aye'






Ideally it would be great if each ball weighed exactly the same amount. But i doubt seriously if they do. Because of the process by which the balls are made, numbers applied and the coating on the outside. However each ball has to weigh within a set parameter plus or minus whatever amount is allowable. So say you have 3 sets of balls that have 3 balls on the heavy side and 7 balls on the light side. Even though all the balls are within the weight parameters 3 of those balls in each machine are heavier and could very possibly spend more time at the bottom of the machine during the machines cycle time. Even though they are spinning and colliding with the other balls they would have a  tendency to fall to the bottom of the machine because they are heavier than the rest thereby spending more time near the opening of the draw tube.

with me so far now lets do some testing with these balls. We could run the draw ten times and the three heavy balls in each machine are number 1-2-3 Lets say during the test the numbers 1-2-3 came up three times in different order not back to back but the first time the 4th time and the sdventh time. And the numbers 2-3 came up 2 times and the numbers 1-3 came up 2 times and the number 1-2 came up twice. And there was 1 double 2-2-3.

You would have to say that balls set favored the numbers 1-2-3.

Now change the balls in each machine and make the number 1-2- and 3 the lightest balls and all the rest are on the heavy side. Now do the drawing for ten times again. More than likely the numbers 1-2 or 3 might not even be drawn.

Now since we have no way of knowing what the balls weigh all we have are the numbers history that they have drew if they are drawing the same like numbers for 3 or more draws then you can assume they are using the same ball sets. Then the numbers start coming out differently than they have been you can assume that they changed ball sets.

Learning how to read these draw history's can make the difference from winning or losing.  


 

    ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

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    April 22, 2004
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    Posted: March 7, 2005, 7:04 pm - IP Logged

    MillionsWanted and four4me,

    Thanks you for your explanations. I agree that there could be minor differences in the balls, but I don't think those differences would make any real difference in the outcomes of the drawings.

    From my contacts with lottery officials, I know that they test the balls and machines several times before and after each draw. They check the machines to make sure they're functioning properly. They check the outcomes of the test draws and the money draws to make sure they fall within the established parameters of randomness. ( One such standard they use is the Chi-square test, which is an industry standard. Don't ask me to explain it because I can't.) They test the weight and shape of the balls to assure that each one falls withing rather exacting tolerances. They check the finish of the balls and they check the balls for any physical damage. 

    I'm inclined to think that the lottery officials of any given state would be the first to know if something were out of kilter with the balls or the machines. Any biases in the outcomes of the draws would be detected rather quickly. It's just like the way they change decks of cards and dice in casinos. People running games of chance don't take unnecessary chances. They know that they can get hurt very easily by any deviation from chance due to flawed equipment.

    I don't think most lottery games are perfectly random, but I think that any deviations from perfect randomness are usually just short term trends which ultimately balance out. Computer drawings excepted, I'd have to say that the machines and ballsets make the games about as random as possible.

    As some other posters have already pointed out, there's really no way of knowing exactly which ballsets or machines might be in use for any given drawing. If the lottery officials discover something wrong in a test draw, they're not going to proceed with the flawed balls or machines. There's no way of knowing when that might happen.

    I could be as wrong as two left shoes, but I just don't see how ballsets and machines can be tracked with any certainty. Further, I can't see how any changes in ballsets or machines can make any real difference in the outcomes of the draws. That's just my thinking on the matter. I wish the greatest possible success to those of you who believe otherwise.

    Good luck,

    aye'

      four4me's avatar - gate1
      MD
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      Posted: March 7, 2005, 7:50 pm - IP Logged

      If you look at maryland's pick 4 numbers and ohio's pick four numbers for the last 5 days. I could almost bet that they used the same balls and machines for almost every draw. Now i could be wrong also but i'm willing to bet i'm not. why you say because they drew so many of the same numbers over a 4 day period.  Until today when they probably changed them.

       


      Maryland's

       

      3/3/2005   9703
                         0327
      3/4/2005    0123
                        7822
      3/5/2005    3449
                         3742
      3/6/2005    4739
                          7569
      3/7/2005   2887

      ohio's numbers are even more tied together as there were no 6's or 0's and the one didn't show till today midday.

       Ohio's


            3/02/ mid          9-2-3-4

           3/02/ eve          2-3-4-9

            3/03/ mid          9-8-4-8

            3/03/ eve          8-4-5-2

            3/04/ mid          5-9-4-3

       

           3/04/ eve          9-3-7-4

            3/05/ mid          2-9-8-5

            3/05/ eve          2-9-4-2

            3/07/ mid          7-1-5-3



        United States
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        Posted: March 7, 2005, 8:04 pm - IP Logged

        Ayenowitall,

        place a vacuum sweeper on a nice very shiny floor. Place two feathers a couple inches from the sweeper, now add a little weight to one feather only. Turn on the sweeper. Question..."Which feather do you suppose will get sucked into the sweeper first?"

          That bit of difference is all that it takes to change the odds or don't you think so?

        Teufellj...

          ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

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          Posted: March 7, 2005, 9:53 pm - IP Logged

          Teufellj,

          I don't think so.

          I do think that lottery operators know the degree of tolerance in the weight of the balls in a set that will make a difference as to whether or not they yield random results.

          If an extremely minute difference in the weight of the balls could really make such a great difference in the odds or randomness of a draw, those people who track the machine and ballset changes should be cleaning out the coffers of every lottery that operates a ball drawn game. I haven't seen that happening anywhere.

          aye'

            ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

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            Posted: March 7, 2005, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

            four4me,

            The numbers have to fall in some fashion, and over a series of only nine draws, I wouldn't expect to see a perfectly even distribution of numbers.

            But let's assume you're right. In retrospect, what you say makes very good sense. Now, how does that give you any knowledge as to which particular machine or ballset will be used in the next drawing? How do you know whether a bias is caused by the ballset or the draw machine?And how would you account for any bias when ballsets are used in different machines?

            aye' 

              four4me's avatar - gate1
              MD
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              Posted: March 7, 2005, 11:42 pm - IP Logged

              I don't know what to call it. here's how i see the game. In ball machines i know that all the machines and balls are calibrated. I know security is in place. Don't get any ideas that i think it rigged were not talking rigging on this. I am so happy that these balls are being drawn like this i could just scream with joy. In maryland i picked up some boxed hits because of it. And only missed the straights because i didn't play a dozen different combinations of the last 6 or seven draws. In the Ohio draws i was also able to pick up a few boxed hits which are recordered both on the prediction pages and in the pick 4 threads for Ohio by Lucky. Again in Ohio if i lived there or were gambling online i would be making money because they are drawing like numbers.

              I know this numbers streak repeat digit thing isn't going to last long and all those sets of numbers will be replaced by other digits. I don't have specific knowledge as to which balls will be used tomorrow or any other day. However anybody can see if you tracked the game in the manner i showed examples of how one might go about selecting plays tonight for tomorrows drawing. and  after tomorrow's midday drawing work the last four draws to get tomorrows night drawings picks. 

              So in effect there are two ways to go about it using digits from the last 4 draws and replace digits with the digits they haven't been drawing. it's as simple as that.

              Now i know this might not have answered your question. So i'll end this with the following I count on them using the same set of balls even though in the back of my mind i know they might not. I try and adjust my plays in case this happens.