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Most important stat ??

Topic closed. 15 replies. Last post 12 years ago by takeitez.

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What do you think is the most important stat on the stat page?

Hit Ratio [ 12 ]  [66.67%]
Prize Ratio [ 6 ]  [33.33%]
Total Valid Votes [ 18 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 3 ]  
takeitez's avatar - japheth
Carters Lake, Ga.
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Posted: March 21, 2005, 8:35 am - IP Logged

Just wondering how others view the stats.

 I think, hit ratio, different places pay different amounts.

 Thanks for your input.

good luck

ez 

          No Pity!Guitar  Drum ........ in the long run........

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    Poway CA (San Diego County)
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    Posted: March 21, 2005, 10:21 am - IP Logged

    If someone makes 100 predictions and 90 of them hit and are STRAIGHTS, that is much more important than someone that predicts 100 and 95 hit and are BOXES.  Therefore, the prize ratio is much more important.  Todd does not try to figure out what the payout would be in that state.  He has a fixed amount for straights, 3-way, 6-way, etc.  That way all states are treated equally.  Of course, if you bet online like most of us do, then you would get much more.

      MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
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      Posted: March 21, 2005, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

       to me the hit ratio would be more important. without the hit ratio you would'nt have to worry about the prize ratio. besides in my opinion 1/2 of something is better than "0"...

                                                   

                                                     "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "

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        Poway CA (San Diego County)
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        Posted: March 21, 2005, 6:43 pm - IP Logged
        Quote: Originally posted by MADDOG10 on March 21, 2005


         to me the hit ratio would be more important. without the hit ratio you would'nt have to worry about the prize ratio. besides in my opinion 1/2 of something is better than "0"...



        I'm not talking about zero.  If you make 50 predictions and they all hit, but only box hits, and I predict 25 and they all hit, but all hit as straights, your predictions are better than mine??????

        Sorry, I just can't figure that one out.

        I'll stick with the prize ratio every time!!


         

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          Poway CA (San Diego County)
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          Posted: March 21, 2005, 6:49 pm - IP Logged

          MadDog,


          Here is a perfect example using YOUR stats:

          California





           Statistic  Current Month  Last Month  Current Year  Last Year  Lifetime 
            Pick 3
          Picks1,8252,7107,4858,49715,982
          Hits26256871139
              Hit Ratio1.42%0.92%0.91%0.84%0.87%
          Winnings$3,540$1,000$6,670$7,410$14,080
              Prize Ratio



          Well, the prize ratio isn't showing, but this month you made 1,825 picks for California Pick 3.  You had only 26 winners...so looking at just the hit ratio (1.42%) that is not someone I would want to follow.  HOWEVER, the prize ratio is 198% (I think).  That means that with only those 26 wins you almost DOUBLED your investment.  To me that in the most important stat.

            Bryan's avatar - Lottery-002.jpg
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            Posted: March 21, 2005, 7:06 pm - IP Logged
            Quote: Originally posted by CalifDude on March 21, 2005



            Quote: Originally posted by MADDOG10 on March 21, 2005



            If you make 50 predictions and they all hit, but only box hits, and I predict 25 and they all hit, but all hit as straights, your predictions are better than mine??????
             





                      All I know, is if either of you can hit like that I will be following you all to the store to buy me some tickets and I'll be buying the combo (all ways) tickets!! There won't be any important stats then. Of course, if you ain't hittin', I ain't winning.......anything. So, maybe hittin' is the most important... hmmm.... I'll have to get back to ya on that one....
                     

              emilyg's avatar - cat anm.gif

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              Posted: March 21, 2005, 7:16 pm - IP Logged

              hit ratio 

              love to nibble those micey feet.

               

                                           

                fast eddie's avatar - lasvegas2
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                Posted: March 21, 2005, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

                CD, If someone makes 100 predictions and 90 of them hit and are STRAIGHTS. I'm going to adopt them.

                "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned"

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                  Poway CA (San Diego County)
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                  Posted: March 21, 2005, 7:27 pm - IP Logged

                  Yes, but those people that are saying they want the hit ratio would be missing the boat, fast eddie.

                  I'm still scratching my head on that one.  They want someone that has a lot of hits, rather than someone that has quality hits.  I will never understand that!!  But to each his own. 

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                    Poway CA (San Diego County)
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                    Posted: March 21, 2005, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

                    I can't quote Bryan's message.  Bryan, you are telling me you would rather have 50 box wins than 25 straight wins? 

                    I guess I will never figure it out!!

                    I taught numbers and numbering systems too long.  I assume that everyone understands numbers and that is certainly not the case!!

                    I will take the 25 straight wins every day over the 50 box wins. 

                      Bryan's avatar - Lottery-002.jpg
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                      Posted: March 21, 2005, 8:05 pm - IP Logged
                      Quote: Originally posted by CalifDude on March 21, 2005



                      I can't quote Bryan's message.  Bryan, you are telling me you would rather have 50 box wins than 25 straight wins? 

                      I guess I will never figure it out!!

                      I taught numbers and numbering systems too long.  I assume that everyone understands numbers and that is certainly not the case!!

                      I will take the 25 straight wins every day over the 50 box wins. 





                                  CD, you're wound to tight, I think you're over-thinking it....I was just playing...Basically, I was saying if either one of you can hit all your predictions, I'll be following you like a lost pup.

                       Yeah, I can see what you are saying but in a real world nobody is going to be hitting all their predictions. So, I would follow someone who could hit 4 boxed hits in a month versus some one who will hit one straight in a month. Just because the player who is hitting 4 times in a month is hitting boxed, doesn't mean I'll be play his numbers that way. You know what I mean?...So someone who is hitting more is more important to me than someone that hits less but gets more straights. Are you following me?.... If not, never mind... I think I've confused myself now... Now, look what you made me go and do.......

                      Bryan  :)

                        MADDOG10's avatar - smoke
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                        Posted: March 21, 2005, 8:13 pm - IP Logged

                           cd, i'm not disputing what you are saying in the slightest. realistically all i'm saying is that i could'nt count on hitting 90 out of 100 and all of the 90 being straight.  now to be real if you said 10 out of a 100 and they would be straight, o.k. but out of that 100 , 40 would be boxed, the amount would'nt be that much greater either way because everyone does'nt have the luxury of playing.( you know who)  sure it may be 1,000.00 to 1,500.00 . and it would depend on the persons style of play right?

                              and as far as graphics showing  someone  a certain state of hits (hit ratio)  1.42 vs 0.39, who would you follow???  maybe i'm not reading something in that question of which you would prefer, but in my opinion, i would still take the prize ratio... 

                                                                     

                                                                       "  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "

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                          Posted: March 21, 2005, 9:17 pm - IP Logged

                          Maybe because I'm using such high numbers, people don't understand. 

                          Ok, you have Bill and Steve.  They both predict pick 3 numbers.  They each predict 50 numbers a day (5 days a week).  They are very consistent at their hits.  Bill always gets 10 correct picks a week, but they are always BOX wins.  Steve always gets 5 correct picks a week, but they are always STRAIGHT wins.  And, PLEASE, stop with the "well nobody would get that many, etc.".  This is only an example, for goodness sakes.

                          If you look at the hit ratio, Bill is doing twice as good as Steve.  Most of you say that the number of hits is the most important thing to you, so you would prefer the 10 wins from Bill.  If you looked at the prize ratio you would see that Steve has a better prize ratio.  He has made a lot more money than Bill with fewer wins.  Call me crazy, but Steve is the guy for me.  I know some of you can't understand my examples and will try to say, "But Steve won't always hit straights"!  Give me a large break.  I'm trying to show the difference between the hit ratio and the prize ratio, not trying to give a true example.  I did that already with Mad Dog's example.  He his hitting only 1.4% of his predictions in California, BUT his return is almost 200%.

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                            Poway CA (San Diego County)
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                            Posted: March 21, 2005, 9:21 pm - IP Logged
                            Quote: Originally posted by MADDOG10 on March 21, 2005



                               cd, i'm not disputing what you are saying in the slightest. realistically all i'm saying is that i could'nt count on hitting 90 out of 100 and all of the 90 being straight.  now to be real if you said 10 out of a 100 and they would be straight, o.k. but out of that 100 , 40 would be boxed, the amount would'nt be that much greater either way because everyone does'nt have the luxury of playing.( you know who)  sure it may be 1,000.00 to 1,500.00 . and it would depend on the persons style of play right?

                                  and as far as graphics showing  someone  a certain state of hits (hit ratio)  1.42 vs 0.39, who would you follow???  maybe i'm not reading something in that question of which you would prefer, but in my opinion, i would still take the prize ratio... 





                            Exactly, Mad Dog.  I want the prize ratio, too.  A hit ratio of 1.42 vs 0.39 tells me nothing about who is providing the QUALITY numbers (straights).  If someone gave you a set of numbers to play for the California Super Lotto, lets say 20...and you got 4 tickets with 3 correct, but I gave you 2 sets of numbers to play and you hit the $14 Million Jackpot, who had the QUALITY numbers??

                            Yes, Mad Dog, the prize ratio is the one!!


                             

                              JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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                              Posted: March 22, 2005, 4:30 pm - IP Logged

                              Almost as important as a hit ratio would be a capture ratio. How many numbers do you get consistenly right? How often over time? It's also a good indicator of systems that are on the right track.

                              You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                              Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.