Most important stat ??Prev TopicNext Topic

• takeitez

  

  Carters Lake, Ga.
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  Mar 21, 2005, 8:35 am

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  Just wondering how others view the stats.

   I think, hit ratio, different places pay different amounts.

   Thanks for your input.

  good luck

  ez 

               ........ in the long run........
• CalifDude

  

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  Poway CA (San Diego County)
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  Mar 21, 2005, 10:21 am

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  If someone makes 100 predictions and 90 of them hit and are STRAIGHTS, that is much more important than someone that predicts 100 and 95 hit and are BOXES.  Therefore, the prize ratio is much more important.  Todd does not try to figure out what the payout would be in that state.  He has a fixed amount for straights, 3-way, 6-way, etc.  That way all states are treated equally.  Of course, if you bet online like most of us do, then you would get much more.
• MADDOG10

  

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  Mar 21, 2005, 6:28 pm

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   to me the hit ratio would be more important. without the hit ratio you would'nt have to worry about the prize ratio. besides in my opinion 1/2 of something is better than "0"...

                                             

                       The truth is like a Lion, you don't have to defend it

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• CalifDude

  

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  Mar 21, 2005, 6:43 pm

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  Quote: Originally posted by MADDOG10 on March 21, 2005
  

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   to me the hit ratio would be more important. without the hit ratio you would'nt have to worry about the prize ratio. besides in my opinion 1/2 of something is better than "0"...
  

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  I'm not talking about zero.  If you make 50 predictions and they all hit, but only box hits, and I predict 25 and they all hit, but all hit as straights, your predictions are better than mine??????

  Sorry, I just can't figure that one out.

  I'll stick with the prize ratio every time!!

  
   
• CalifDude

  

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  Mar 21, 2005, 6:49 pm

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  MadDog,
  
  
  

  Here is a perfect example using YOUR stats:

  California
  

  
  
  
  
  

  Statistic	Current Month	Last Month	Current Year	Last Year	Lifetime
  Pick 3
  Picks	1,825	2,710	7,485	8,497	15,982
  Hits	26	25	68	71	139
  Hit Ratio	1.42%	0.92%	0.91%	0.84%	0.87%
  Winnings	$3,540	$1,000	$6,670	$7,410	$14,080
  Prize Ratio

  
  
  
  

  Well, the prize ratio isn't showing, but this month you made 1,825 picks for California Pick 3.  You had only 26 winners...so looking at just the hit ratio (1.42%) that is not someone I would want to follow.  HOWEVER, the prize ratio is 198% (I think).  That means that with only those 26 wins you almost DOUBLED your investment.  To me that in the most important stat.
• Bryan

  

  Mid-Missouri
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  Mar 21, 2005, 7:06 pm

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  Quote: Originally posted by CalifDude on March 21, 2005
  

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  Quote: Originally posted by MADDOG10 on March 21, 2005
  

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  If you make 50 predictions and they all hit, but only box hits, and I predict 25 and they all hit, but all hit as straights, your predictions are better than mine??????
   

  
  

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            All I know, is if either of you can hit like that I will be following you all to the store to buy me some tickets and I'll be buying the combo (all ways) tickets!! There won't be any important stats then. Of course, if you ain't hittin', I ain't winning.......anything. So, maybe hittin' is the most important... hmmm.... I'll have to get back to ya on that one....
           
  
• emilyg

  

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  Mar 21, 2005, 7:16 pm

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  hit ratio 

  love to nibble those micey feet.

   

                               
• fast eddie

  

  Chicago,IL.
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  Mar 21, 2005, 7:20 pm

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  CD, If someone makes 100 predictions and 90 of them hit and are STRAIGHTS. I'm going to adopt them.

  "Money won is twice as sweet as money earned"
• CalifDude

  

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  Mar 21, 2005, 7:27 pm

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  Yes, but those people that are saying they want the hit ratio would be missing the boat, fast eddie.

  I'm still scratching my head on that one.  They want someone that has a lot of hits, rather than someone that has quality hits.  I will never understand that!!  But to each his own. 
• CalifDude

  

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  Mar 21, 2005, 7:40 pm

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  I can't quote Bryan's message.  Bryan, you are telling me you would rather have 50 box wins than 25 straight wins? 

  I guess I will never figure it out!!

  I taught numbers and numbering systems too long.  I assume that everyone understands numbers and that is certainly not the case!!

  I will take the 25 straight wins every day over the 50 box wins. 
• Bryan

  

  Mid-Missouri
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  Mar 21, 2005, 8:05 pm

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  Quote: Originally posted by CalifDude on March 21, 2005
  

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  I can't quote Bryan's message.  Bryan, you are telling me you would rather have 50 box wins than 25 straight wins? 

  I guess I will never figure it out!!

  I taught numbers and numbering systems too long.  I assume that everyone understands numbers and that is certainly not the case!!

  I will take the 25 straight wins every day over the 50 box wins. 

  
  

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              CD, you're wound to tight, I think you're over-thinking it....I was just playing...Basically, I was saying if either one of you can hit all your predictions, I'll be following you like a lost pup.

   Yeah, I can see what you are saying but in a real world nobody is going to be hitting all their predictions. So, I would follow someone who could hit 4 boxed hits in a month versus some one who will hit one straight in a month. Just because the player who is hitting 4 times in a month is hitting boxed, doesn't mean I'll be play his numbers that way. You know what I mean?...So someone who is hitting more is more important to me than someone that hits less but gets more straights. Are you following me?.... If not, never mind... I think I've confused myself now... Now, look what you made me go and do.......

  Bryan  :)
  
• MADDOG10

  

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  Mar 21, 2005, 8:13 pm

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     cd, i'm not disputing what you are saying in the slightest. realistically all i'm saying is that i could'nt count on hitting 90 out of 100 and all of the 90 being straight.  now to be real if you said 10 out of a 100 and they would be straight, o.k. but out of that 100 , 40 would be boxed, the amount would'nt be that much greater either way because everyone does'nt have the luxury of playing.( you know who)  sure it may be 1,000.00 to 1,500.00 . and it would depend on the persons style of play right?

        and as far as graphics showing  someone  a certain state of hits (hit ratio)  1.42 vs 0.39, who would you follow???  maybe i'm not reading something in that question of which you would prefer, but in my opinion, i would still take the prize ratio... 

                                             

                       The truth is like a Lion, you don't have to defend it

                                          Let it loose, it will defend itself.
• CalifDude

  

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  Mar 21, 2005, 9:17 pm

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  Maybe because I'm using such high numbers, people don't understand. 

  Ok, you have Bill and Steve.  They both predict pick 3 numbers.  They each predict 50 numbers a day (5 days a week).  They are very consistent at their hits.  Bill always gets 10 correct picks a week, but they are always BOX wins.  Steve always gets 5 correct picks a week, but they are always STRAIGHT wins.  And, PLEASE, stop with the "well nobody would get that many, etc.".  This is only an example, for goodness sakes.

  If you look at the hit ratio, Bill is doing twice as good as Steve.  Most of you say that the number of hits is the most important thing to you, so you would prefer the 10 wins from Bill.  If you looked at the prize ratio you would see that Steve has a better prize ratio.  He has made a lot more money than Bill with fewer wins.  Call me crazy, but Steve is the guy for me.  I know some of you can't understand my examples and will try to say, "But Steve won't always hit straights"!  Give me a large break.  I'm trying to show the difference between the hit ratio and the prize ratio, not trying to give a true example.  I did that already with Mad Dog's example.  He his hitting only 1.4% of his predictions in California, BUT his return is almost 200%.
• CalifDude

  

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  Mar 21, 2005, 9:21 pm

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  Quote: Originally posted by MADDOG10 on March 21, 2005
  

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     cd, i'm not disputing what you are saying in the slightest. realistically all i'm saying is that i could'nt count on hitting 90 out of 100 and all of the 90 being straight.  now to be real if you said 10 out of a 100 and they would be straight, o.k. but out of that 100 , 40 would be boxed, the amount would'nt be that much greater either way because everyone does'nt have the luxury of playing.( you know who)  sure it may be 1,000.00 to 1,500.00 . and it would depend on the persons style of play right?

        and as far as graphics showing  someone  a certain state of hits (hit ratio)  1.42 vs 0.39, who would you follow???  maybe i'm not reading something in that question of which you would prefer, but in my opinion, i would still take the prize ratio... 

  
  

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  Exactly, Mad Dog.  I want the prize ratio, too.  A hit ratio of 1.42 vs 0.39 tells me nothing about who is providing the QUALITY numbers (straights).  If someone gave you a set of numbers to play for the California Super Lotto, lets say 20...and you got 4 tickets with 3 correct, but I gave you 2 sets of numbers to play and you hit the $14 Million Jackpot, who had the QUALITY numbers??

  Yes, Mad Dog, the prize ratio is the one!!

  
   
• JKING

  

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  Mar 22, 2005, 4:30 pm

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  Almost as important as a hit ratio would be a capture ratio. How many numbers do you get consistenly right? How often over time? It's also a good indicator of systems that are on the right track.

  You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

  Even a blind squirrel will occasionally find an acorn.

  There is no elevator to success, you will have to take the stairs.