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The Pigskin Challenge: 4-6-05

Topic closed. 20 replies. Last post 12 years ago by ayenowitall.

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ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

United States
Member #4416
April 22, 2004
1075 Posts
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Posted: April 6, 2005, 11:23 pm - IP Logged

NUMBERS DRAWN: 5-11-14-22-51 + 17

'skindex ratings are given in bold red. Maximum possible score is 100.

ayenowitall: 0+0 (0.0)

getpaid: 1+0 (3.55)

weshar75: 0+1 (19.6)

hypersoniq: 0+0 (0.0)

RJOh: 0+0 (0.0)

MADDOG10: 2+0 (7.2)

Litebets27: 1+0 (3.2)

pigskin: 2+0 (7.2)

Congrats to weshar75 for nailing the red PowerBall with the singular selection of the 17 fortune cookie number.

Honorable mention to MADDOG10 and pigskin for their 2+0 catches.

Litebets27 and getpaid saved face with 1+0 hits.

The rest of us will be receiving our Moonie Awards shortly.

Thanks to all Challengers,

aye'

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    Lee's Summit, Mo.
    United States
    Member #6519
    August 26, 2004
    192 Posts
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    Posted: April 7, 2005, 12:18 am - IP Logged

    I'm not a mathematician but I figure that if there are roughly 50 white balls and a challenger posts 10 numbers, he or she should average one correct selection for each drawing?  Is that correct?

      ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

      United States
      Member #4416
      April 22, 2004
      1075 Posts
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      Posted: April 7, 2005, 7:16 am - IP Logged

      pigskin,

      Actually, for using ten selections to predict the white balls from the 5/53 matrix, it works out to 0.9433962264150.... a little less than one. So, on average, it takes a minuscule amount of luck or skill to match one number.

      I presume you have a follow-up question or declaration. What is it?

      aye'

        hypersoniq's avatar - 8ball
        Pennsylvania
        United States
        Member #1340
        April 6, 2003
        2450 Posts
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        Posted: April 7, 2005, 7:29 pm - IP Logged

        I'm rackin' up those goose eggs... :-(

        I'm about 2 draws away from archiving the sheet and starting anew...

        I have a feeling that I will be the only one left soon who HASN'T won PB

        Playing more than one ticket per game is betting against yourself.

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          Lee's Summit, Mo.
          United States
          Member #6519
          August 26, 2004
          192 Posts
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          Posted: April 8, 2005, 2:34 pm - IP Logged

          Aye, I asked the question because investors are constantly being told if a money manager can have a return on his investment portfolio that exceeds the return on the Standard and Poors' 500 index, he's doing a good job.  If the S & P index is up 10% and a money manager is achieving a 15% return for his clients, he's doing a really great job.  And keep in mind that these managers have many tools at their command...including inside info,,,that helps them show a healthy return on tehir investments.  But how about the challengers?  In the face of a random selection of jackpot numbers, players like Chief and Maddog on a fair number of occasions have exceeded the mathematical expectancy of spotting one white ball which you said was what the average should be if the player selected ten numbers as the challengers do.  And the challengers don't have charts, indices, support staffs, schooled analysts, inside info, etc.  such as the portfolio managers do, they have to rely on their ingenuity.  And if the challengers could average 2 selections out of 10...which would far surpass the achievements of money managers, what do they get?  As they say in the westerns, they don't get diddly squat.  The payoffs on the PB is ridiculous.  I'm thinking of writing the multi-lottery commission and suggesting that they award prizes for annual performance that exceeds the mathematical expectancy.  If you play the PB lottery 100 times during the year and can hit one or more numbers 50 or more times, they should at least return the money the player put out during the year.  If you could identify a winning number 2/3rds of the time, you should get a really nice prize, say something like the state  of Arkansas.  They put loan sharks in jail for charging 35% interest and then I see that if a player can pick2 WBs and the Red PB, the payoff is $7 when the odds are 697 to 1.  If one can perform better than the mathematical expectancy and still come up with nothing while some folks supposedly get #s from a fortune cookie..yes, I said supposedly...or buy a QP and win big money, something is wrong with the game.  I guess the question is, "are the challengers entitled to more than mere performance satisfaction for exceeding the mathematical expectancy over a period of time? 

            ayenowitall's avatar - rod serling4.jpg

            United States
            Member #4416
            April 22, 2004
            1075 Posts
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            Posted: April 8, 2005, 3:10 pm - IP Logged

            Quote: Originally posted by pigskin on April 8, 2005



            I guess the question is, "are the challengers entitled to more than mere performance satisfaction for exceeding the mathematical expectancy over a period of time? 




            pigskin,

            I suppose you could make that argument and ask that same question about most every lottery game in existence. In your heart of hearts, I think you probably already know the answer. I'd certainly be interested in reading any official response that you might get on your proposal.

            I can't speak for MUSL as to why the PowerBall game pays out as it does, but I've always awarded up to 14.4 points on the 'skindex for catching two numbers.

            Good luck,

            aye'

            Just a footnote to all Challengers: This is the old thread from last Wednesday's drawing. The current Pigskin Challenge thread is dated 4-9-05. You can post your numbers there for Saturday night's drawing.