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First MM JP Rollover too small?

Topic closed. 14 replies. Last post 11 years ago by Just6ntlc.

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danisiri's avatar - Avatar all_for_Jesus.jpg

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Posted: July 27, 2005, 3:17 am - IP Logged

Is this first MM JP rollover from the starting pot too small given the new matrix?  I mean only $3 million (from 12 to 15) seems pretty small for a game with such long odds.  Are they anticipating that not many people will play with a JP at this level?


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    Posted: July 27, 2005, 3:53 am - IP Logged

    I think the rollover is fair with long odds and lack of sales.


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      Posted: July 27, 2005, 9:40 am - IP Logged

      if the odds are perceived as terrible, people will just hold off till the jackpot justifies throwing the money away at the one chance.  you have only a 1 in 75 chance of even winning the $ 2 ticket.  most people will need a lot of persistence to keep playing if they're not teased with periodic winnings.

        four4me's avatar - gate1
        MD
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        Posted: July 27, 2005, 10:54 am - IP Logged

        even though the jackpot was small with 12 states involved in the game they still probably took in over 50 million. Or close to it, many people buy tickets no matter what the jackpot amount is. With this many states 1 million per state should be the minimum required amount for each roll over.

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          Morrison, IL
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          Posted: July 27, 2005, 11:22 am - IP Logged

            They took in only an estimated $14.5 million in sales (according to lottoreport.com) for this drawing.  Therefore, the $3 million rollover is normal at the starting level.

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
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            Posted: July 27, 2005, 12:09 pm - IP Logged

            In the last drawings there were 297,984 winners.  Since the odds of winning something is 1:40, there had to be about 11,919,360 tickets sold and 32% of those sales going to the jackpot would mean that $3,814,195 was available for the jackpot.  If you figure the states put up the cash to guarantee the $12M starting jackpot and $9M is needed to guarantee the $15M jackpot, the jackpot may be ahead of actually tickets sales for the first few drawings with the $3M rollovers.  This is the kind of situation that is causing a lot of fuss in Texas.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       


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              Posted: July 27, 2005, 12:11 pm - IP Logged

              The overall odds of winning are 1:40, not 1:75.

                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                Posted: July 27, 2005, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

                Cash, where did you see that 1:75 odds? 

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       


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                  Posted: July 27, 2005, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

                  Somebody else said the odds of winning $2 are 1:75. But that's for a 0+1 match ONLY.


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                    Posted: July 27, 2005, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

                    I go to the California Web Site for Mega Millions to check on the odds of winning the MEGA Ball and odds of winning. CA had a lackluster sales drive in MM this time with $2 for 1/5+MB and $1 for 0/5+MB.

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                      Posted: July 27, 2005, 12:45 pm - IP Logged

                       MATCH      GAME ODDS
                       5 / 5 +B    1 : 175711536
                       5 / 5      1 : 3904701
                       4 / 5 +B    1 : 689065
                       4 / 5      1 : 15313
                       3 / 5 +B    1 : 13781
                       3 / 5      1 : 306
                       2 / 5 +B    1 : 844
                       1 / 5 +B    1 : 141
                       0 / 5 +B    1 : 75

                       overall    1 : 39.8

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

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                        Posted: July 28, 2005, 12:06 am - IP Logged

                        Rollovers are based on sales. Sales are only ok and no big pot has occured yet to drum up more sales. It's better than the usual 2 million rollover before though. It used to go from 10 to 12 million.


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                          Posted: July 28, 2005, 12:07 am - IP Logged

                          I agree what you said dvdiva. I think it will be 20 million for Tuesday if no one wins this Friday.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
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                            Posted: July 28, 2005, 3:13 am - IP Logged

                            In the last drawings there were 297,984 winners.  Since the odds of winning something is 1:40, there had to be about 11,919,360 tickets sold and 32% of those sales going to the jackpot would mean that $3,814,195 was available for the jackpot.  If you figure the states put up the cash to guarantee the $12M starting jackpot and $9M is needed to guarantee the $15M jackpot, the jackpot may be ahead of actually tickets sales for the first few drawings with the $3M rollovers.  This is the kind of situation that is causing a lot of fuss in Texas.

                            I think the next roll over will be $3M also, maybe $4M.

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       


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                              Posted: July 29, 2005, 2:23 pm - IP Logged

                              I'll change my prediction to $18 million RJOh if no one wins tonight.