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# How big do you think MM will get?

Topic closed. 30 replies. Last post 11 years ago by CASH Only.

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How big do you think mm can get?

 250 million - current pot [ 10 ] [23.81%] 300 million - 1 more roll [ 9 ] [21.43%] 360+ - 2 rolls [ 8 ] [19.05%] 400+ - 3 rolls [ 15 ] [35.71%] Total Valid Votes [ 42 ] Discarded Votes [ 5 ]

United States
Member #8747
November 16, 2004
213 Posts
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 Posted: September 15, 2005, 11:57 pm - IP Logged

I say when it is over 300M, ALL BETS ARE OFF, they sky will be the limit.

Louisville, KY
United States
Member #15734
May 20, 2005
203 Posts
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 Posted: September 16, 2005, 12:07 am - IP Logged

I say when it is over 300M, ALL BETS ARE OFF, they sky will be the limit.

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: September 16, 2005, 11:17 am - IP Logged

I haven't seen any bumps to the announced jackpot, and therefore we can expect that sales will be around \$120 million for this draw, with a Poisson (random distribution) rollover probability of about 50%.

The largest jackpot ever, 5/9/00, \$363M, came after a \$220M jackpot, and produced 2 winners after \$195.6M in sales.  (Note that the odds were, if memory serves me well, around 1 in 90M then).  Because of all the changes, we cannot say what the sales would be after a rollover here, but if they were to match that figure, the probability of a rollover at today's odds, would be roughly 33%.  (Jack Whittaker's jackpot jumped from \$218M to \$314M in Powerball, just under \$100 million.)

Thus, if the assumptions hold, the odds for one more rollover are about even.

The odds for two rollovers are somewhere around 15%.  It is not worth speculating what the odds for three rollovers are, but they are low, though obviously not as low as a particular person winning the lottery.

United States
Member #8747
November 16, 2004
213 Posts
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 Posted: September 16, 2005, 11:34 am - IP Logged

If the sale 195M tickets it is greater than the odds. It is most likely someone will hit. I don't really mind 250M is enough for 1 person. Unless 33 workers from x factory wins.

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: September 16, 2005, 11:59 am - IP Logged

If the sale 195M tickets it is greater than the odds. It is most likely someone will hit. I don't really mind 250M is enough for 1 person. Unless 33 workers from x factory wins.

On May 5, 2000, when the Big Game Jackpot was \$220 million, 122.5M tickets were sold, which is many more than the 1 in 76M odds at the time.

The key to this, of course is that no one is prevented from purchasing a combination that someone else has already bought.  The more tickets that are sold, the more probable double coverage becomes.  Mathetmatically this can be analyzed by what is known as a poisson distribution, which is an alegebraic expression giving (random) probabilities for the depth of coverage of each point in the field.

Here is the probability distribution for a case where the tickets sold were exactly equal to the odds, with the number of winners in the first column and the probability of that number of winners being obtained in percent in the second column:

 0 36.79% 1 36.79% 2 18.39% 3 6.13% 4 1.53% 5 0.31% 6 0.05% 7 0.01%

In this case, even though the existence of a winner is more likely than a rollover, the probability of a rollover is not absurdly out of the question.

In fact, if sales were \$400M, the probability of a rollover would still be about 10%, certainly not impossible odds.

This distribution assumes random purchases.  Probably the real situation is skewed by the fact that many people play birthdays and things like that.

Edited to correct for old odds:  In the old Big Game, the odds were 1 in 76,275,360.

I dont know where
United States
Member #1702
June 18, 2003
103 Posts
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 Posted: September 16, 2005, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

Dreamers are winners, and some of us win big now and then. we are optimistic.

I like that alot, even though when I don't win the BIG ONE I quit instantly, but a few weeks later I find myself playing again.

Beautiful Florida
United States
Member #5709
July 18, 2004
20108 Posts
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 Posted: September 16, 2005, 8:37 pm - IP Logged

A gut feeling tells me it's peaked as of tonight...!

"  When Injustice Becomes Law, Resistance Becomes Duty "

FLORIDA
United States
Member #5364
July 1, 2004
88 Posts
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 Posted: September 16, 2005, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

A gut feeling tells me it's peaked as of tonight...!

It's not over................................ Was it over when the Germans bombed pearl harbor?

Actually, I think your right on someone winning tonight. IF it rolls I'll be pleased and surprised.

Oh, yeah, The pearl harbor quote was from animal house I realize who did bomb pearl harbor........

Good luck to all the posties tonight that played mega and if no one on here hits tonight then let it roll till Tuesday when we try to hit it again...................................

NY
United States
Member #10151
January 4, 2005
248 Posts
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 Posted: September 16, 2005, 9:44 pm - IP Logged

I think that you possibly could be correct that it will go tonight, because i am holding the winning ticket and when those numbers are drawn i will be rocking the night away, with my corona and lime ready to go. Already have body guards in place to collect my winnings, tax advisor's and a whole staff of attorneys. Getting ready to rock the night away. Like i said earlier good luck to each and everyone that plays this game.

Thousandair

Morrison, IL
United States
Member #4657
May 13, 2004
1884 Posts
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 Posted: September 17, 2005, 12:47 am - IP Logged

Well, I didn't win s**t.  I matched only one white number.

United States
Member #2338
September 17, 2003
2063 Posts
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 Posted: September 17, 2005, 1:01 am - IP Logged

If they were numbers you picked ryanm you could almost call it the anti-system. Guarenteed to loose or your money back.

Riverside, Ca
United States
Member #21722
September 14, 2005
173 Posts
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 Posted: September 17, 2005, 1:17 am - IP Logged

im in the same boat as ryanm i only got one white number (50) i hope it rolls. its going to be crazy when someone wins because you know only 1 ticket will win

Morrison, IL
United States
Member #4657
May 13, 2004
1884 Posts
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 Posted: September 17, 2005, 1:19 am - IP Logged

No, I quick pick, but 50 was the white number I got as well.

Anyway, it seems the MM bubble has burst.  Someone in New Jersey took the whole jackpot.

United States
Member #2338
September 17, 2003
2063 Posts
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 Posted: September 17, 2005, 1:21 am - IP Logged

Looks like my pessimism was well founded. It hit at 250.

United States
Member #16612
June 2, 2005
3493 Posts
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 Posted: September 17, 2005, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

I was wishing for it to roll for two more pots. However, I would congratulate NJ for winning the MM jackpot. Better luck next time CA.

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