Bronx, NY United States Member #34119 February 28, 2006 218 Posts Offline

Posted: March 8, 2006, 9:51 am - IP Logged

My dreams also have proved helpful about 33--50% of the times. maybe I just need a system for understanding my dreams better. Anyway I have had a number of box and straight hits by smple counting the number of letters in the names of one of th individuals in my dream (the person less important or less close to me). E.g. George Bush shows up in my dream next to my cousin Firstname Lastname I would get a hit for 064 (George Bush) or its combinations. By the way middle . Instead toy with a third digit. Bill Oreilly was in my dream cussing off a professor. So I knew 074 or 740 or close was coming within two days.

Success defined: If you aim for nothing you will achieve it! My GOAL: At least 3 straight hits per week.

United States Member #35054 March 11, 2006 12 Posts Offline

Posted: March 15, 2006, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

no offense to all of you, but if you use any of these theories, you better be able to list the theoretical assumptions you're making, or else you sound stupid... no matter which theory you're using.

insofar that one assumes that the probability of drawing each ball is independent of all previously drawn balls (for that day, of course), and that the draws on one day are independent of draws on other days, you might as well go 'random'

Maryland United States Member #35590 March 20, 2006 185 Posts Offline

Posted: March 20, 2006, 3:24 pm - IP Logged

Has anyone noticed the inaccuracy in the mega millios data for winning prizes. For example it says....you have a 1 in 75 chance of only matching the mega ball. Is that not junk? All you have to do is buy 46 tickets and you are guranteed to be a winner.

Second the data of 1 in 3,800,000 to match all 5 numbers is filled with a lot of near impossible combinations like....1,2,3,4,5,....2,3,4,5,6.......3,4,5,6,7.....3,4,5,7,8..etc. So really the realistic odds are much much less.

Finally all the statitical data and computerized generation of numbers are financially not feasible. Who is going to spend 3.8 million dollars to get $250,000? Doen't make sense. Someone who hase serious dough may spend about $32 mill to cover all possible combinations plus 10 numbers of the 46 balls. That would be one heck of a free fall if he misses. He could improve his odds by removing all of the impossible combinations within that 3.8 mill.

In the end......it is all a game of luck. Luck if there is not a supercomputer somewhere keeping track of all the numbers of the players and then dancing around them.

I will make you a prediction.......the next winner WILL come from Maryland.

Findlay, Ohio United States Member #4855 May 28, 2004 400 Posts Offline

Posted: March 21, 2006, 12:17 pm - IP Logged

"Second the data of 1 in 3,800,000 to match all 5 numbers is filled with a lot of near impossible combinations like....1,2,3,4,5,....2,3,4,5,6.......3,4,5,6,7.....3,4,5,7,8..etc. So really the realistic odds are much much less."

I wonder why people think those combinations are "nearly impossible". Even Gail Howard in her Lottery Masters Guide claims that the combo 1,2,3,4,5,6 will probably never fall because its "too far out of balance." The drawing machines and the balls they contain knows nothing about the idea of balance, nor do they have sense of order. Any of those combinations only appear ordered because we percieve them to be.

There are only 52 possible counting combinations for the first pool of 56 numbered balls in the mega millions (1,2,3,4,5 through 52,53,54,55,56)

There are ((56!)/((56-5)!))/(5!) = 3,819,816 possibile combinations that can be drawn from that first pool of balls. The 52 "counting combinations" as a group only represent 1 / 73,458th of the total......which is why we dont see them. But just as all combinations show up over time, so will the counting combinations. Their odds and probability are exactly the same as all of the other combinations.

P.S. The 1 in 75 chance to match 0 of 56 plus the megaball is calculated to include the chance that you may get one of the 56 balls from the first pool correct as well. You can't have true odds of 1 in 46 to get ONLY the megaball unless you have the option to only play the mega ball....you must play both halfs of the board.

Maryland United States Member #35590 March 20, 2006 185 Posts Offline

Posted: March 22, 2006, 9:29 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Thoth on March 21, 2006

"Second the data of 1 in 3,800,000 to match all 5 numbers is filled with a lot of near impossible combinations like....1,2,3,4,5,....2,3,4,5,6.......3,4,5,6,7.....3,4,5,7,8..etc. So really the realistic odds are much much less."

I wonder why people think those combinations are "nearly impossible". Even Gail Howard in her Lottery Masters Guide claims that the combo 1,2,3,4,5,6 will probably never fall because its "too far out of balance." The drawing machines and the balls they contain knows nothing about the idea of balance, nor do they have sense of order. Any of those combinations only appear ordered because we percieve them to be.

There are only 52 possible counting combinations for the first pool of 56 numbered balls in the mega millions (1,2,3,4,5 through 52,53,54,55,56)

There are ((56!)/((56-5)!))/(5!) = 3,819,816 possibile combinations that can be drawn from that first pool of balls. The 52 "counting combinations" as a group only represent 1 / 73,458th of the total......which is why we dont see them. But just as all combinations show up over time, so will the counting combinations. Their odds and probability are exactly the same as all of the other combinations.

P.S. The 1 in 75 chance to match 0 of 56 plus the megaball is calculated to include the chance that you may get one of the 56 balls from the first pool correct as well. You can't have true odds of 1 in 46 to get ONLY the megaball unless you have the option to only play the mega ball....you must play both halfs of the board.

Thoth I understand what you are saying....regardless the 1 in 75 is still misleading. Why include the chance to get 1 of the 56 mumbers if you are only aiming to get just the megaball which is financially stupid but is really the basis for O numbers matched + the megaball. If as you stated they are calculating the chance of getting 1 of 56 then mathimatically their formula is screwed up because it starts with an incorrect premise. An incorrect assumption as a premise then leads one to an inflated and incorrect conclusion as in.....1 in 75 to get 0 matches + 1 megaball.

Can't you see the folly?

To get your number of possible combination......nCr.....56C5=3,819,816. Why is this then not used when looking for just one number of the 46 megaballs?

I just don't see the facts supporting the premise on the way they came to their conclusion.

United States Member #35054 March 11, 2006 12 Posts Offline

Posted: March 28, 2006, 7:49 pm - IP Logged

i've read the last few posts, and i'm not sure what the confusion is

thoth's p.s. in his message is a bit misguided... the 1/75 for 0 white + 1 megaball is actually the probability (albeit rounded up) that you will match the megaball AND EXACTLY NONE of the white balls, IF YOU ONLY PLAYED QUICKPICK... yes, if you play quickpick, you will get the megaball roughly 1/46 of the time, but this includes all scenarios of white balls, including scenarios where you match 1, 2, 3, 4, or all 5 white balls.

these odds are not 'misleading'... they refer to situations where lottery participants are drawing randomly.

all those who say that 1,2,3,4,5,6 is impossible, they suffer from what is commonly referred to as "the gambler's fallacy", which simply says that some people believe that the individual draws of the balls are somehow dependent upon one another. to illustrate the gambler's fallacy, if i flip a coin 5 times and get heads 5 times, and you believe that my chances of getting a tail on flip #6 is higher than 50%, you suffer from the gambler's fallacy. the argument in lottery is similar but i'd rather not take the time to explain it.

each flip of a coin is an EVENT that is independent of all other coin flips. heads and tails each come up 50% of the time. the likelihood of whether the coin comes up heads or tails is referred to as a "random variable".

San Angelo, Texas United States Member #1097 January 31, 2003 1405 Posts Offline

Posted: April 23, 2006, 10:59 am - IP Logged

I use a method I call 'organized guess work.' I have a ton of statistics. I try to use the hints they provide, but in the end, it's just a matter of guesswork. Sometimes it pays off, most times it doesn't

arizona United States Member #36402 April 1, 2006 5 Posts Offline

Posted: April 23, 2006, 1:08 pm - IP Logged

Hello everyone

I'm new at this and have become interested in the conversation.

I understand the terminology, yet still lack the pictures in my mind to create a system to acquire winnings at a reasonable regularity. May I ask as to where to begin or face me to the right direction in creating a system?

I'm not a math wizard, just a regular joe who wants to know more on this field (lotto pick 3/4 or fantasy 5). As much as I have read in the past postings to create a system is so complex. As far back as I can remember, when creating a recipe "one must keep it simple". Can this be applied to creating a system for this field?

Boston, MA United States Member #38349 April 27, 2006 20 Posts Offline

Posted: April 27, 2006, 7:43 pm - IP Logged

I couldn't believe my luck. I played some numbers and it hit, but only once. I played a few time again and nothing. I just don't understand the logic. Isn't Lottery drawings supposed to be random? I posted again because I think I posted in the wrong section.

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19900 Posts Offline

Posted: April 27, 2006, 8:06 pm - IP Logged

sorboni,

You are really lucky, in 20 minutes you went from someone asking if buying numbers from a certain website really worked to someone who had won $1234.00 some days ago using that website. I'm surprised you didn't win $1234.56. Continued good luck to you.

RJOh

P.S. Both posts I referred to were in the Math forum.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Boston, MA United States Member #38349 April 27, 2006 20 Posts Offline

Posted: April 27, 2006, 10:24 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by RJOh on April 27, 2006

sorboni,

You are really lucky, in 20 minutes you went from someone asking if buying numbers from a certain website really worked to someone who had won $1234.00 some days ago using that website. I'm surprised you didn't win $1234.56. Continued good luck to you.

RJOh

P.S. Both posts I referred to were in the Math forum.

RJOh,

Hey! I see your from Ohio. On PickPatterns.com, the hot numbers for Ohio pick 3 where 617 and 970 and 791 came in today. Wow! one number off unless you play first two and last two. Do you play? Did you win?

Know what's more freaky? The hot number for Ohio pick for was 1864 and the number that came in was 1487. One number off! Who runs this website. A math geek from Harvard?

mid-Ohio United States Member #9 March 24, 2001 19900 Posts Offline

Posted: April 27, 2006, 11:37 pm - IP Logged

I seldom play the pick3 or pick4 games, but I know that not having one of the numbers pays the same as having none of the numbers and is nothing to brag about. You're confusing the pick3 and pick4 games with a jackpot game which pays pretty good if you only miss one number.

A member once posted 9 or so lines that guaranteed 2 of 3 in a pick3 game if the winning numbers weren't a double or triple and I think the same could be done for the pick4 in 25 lines or so.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *