|Posted: March 21, 2006, 7:02 pm - IP Logged|
"I just rolled a die 13 times. The first 12 numbers, in order, were 1, 3, 6, 2, 6, 6, 3, 1, 4, 5, 5, and 5.
Using your combinatorics and probability, what was the 13th number?"
The questoin is about the same as betting on which way something shaped like a football is going to bounce. Probabilities are based on millions of decisions.
There is one combination to roll "snake eyes" (1-1) wih a pair of dice. (One single die is called a die, not "dice"). There are 36 possible combinations with two dice. Over the course of millions of rolls, ace-ace or twelve -twelve will have hit once every 36th roll. But that's not how it works in shorter sequences. Someone may roll ace-ace five times in a row, and then not for another one hundred rolls.
Almost every gambling book you read on the game of Blackjack will tell you never take insurance. That too is based on millions of decisions. So you go out and play and your normal bet is $5 but now for some reason you've got a $200 bet out and the dealer shows an Ace and asks, "Insurance?"
As the old time Vegas bosses used to say, "When you run a join worry about the percentages. Til then try and catch a streak."
One of the best paying off bets on a dice tables is a parlay on a horn bet. 2, 3, 11, and 12 seem to follow each other (A horn bet is all of tem at once). And every book out there would tell you never to bet "the high pc bets in the middle of the layout".
And bear in mind we're talking odds on a pair of dice here, 35:1 being the longest odds on a number showing up.
Lottery odds are millions of times that. There is no predicting at that level, just guessing that some "disguise" at predicting. Pick 3, Pick 4, probably, if one is willing to play more than a buck on a gut hunch and some ciphering. But predicting 5 and 6 numbers out of 35 or more is a fairy tale.
And just food for thought, if there was and anyone knew how, would they be publishibng it and splitting jackpots many ways, or just constantly collecting solo jackpots by themself?