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a sorta stupid question for the math type

Topic closed. 18 replies. Last post 12 years ago by KY Floyd.

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Posted: March 28, 2006, 8:50 pm - IP Logged

anybody ever tried autoregressing numbers for jackpot lotteries?

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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    Posted: March 28, 2006, 9:06 pm - IP Logged

    "autoregressing" never heard of that math term, what is it?  Even the spell check didn't recognize it.

    .

    The word you've entered isn't in the dictionary. Click on a spelling suggestion below or try again using the search box to the right.

    Suggestions for auto regressing:

    1. outorganizing       
    2. outorganized      
    3. autoradiograms      
    4. autoradiographs      
    5. outorganizes      
    6. autoradiographies      
    7. autoradiography      
    8. autoradiograph      
    9. autoradiographic      
    10. autoradiogram

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one * 
       
                  Evil Looking       

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      Posted: March 28, 2006, 9:16 pm - IP Logged

      you throw the historical numbers into an excel file

      (sort the results from each drawing so that the numbers are in numerical order -- as it's reported on powerball website) 

      then today's 1st ball is some kind of weighted average of the previous few 1st balls

      and today's 2nd ball is some kind of weighted average of the previous few 2nd balls 

      so on and so forth 

      essentially a statistical software package can approximate what weighted averages are the best for predicting future balls

      like i hinted by saying it's kind of stupid, there are some severe assumptions being made to believe in such a process, but when i threw in the results from the last 58 PB drawings, that's the idea that first came to mind.

        Raven62's avatar - binary
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        Posted: March 28, 2006, 9:24 pm - IP Logged

        Maybe it's a Term from Statistics: Regression is a way of defining the extent to which two variables are related. Regression can be used in an attempt to predict Lottery Numbers, but this can be tricky. The existence of a correlation between variables does not always mean that there is a cause-and-effect link between them.

          johnph77's avatar - avatar
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          Posted: March 29, 2006, 2:59 am - IP Logged

          What may (and probably will) happen is that the numbers in the inside columns will trend toward the most likely number to hit within that column - somewhat like a frequency chart for that particular lottery matrix would indicate. 01 will always be the number occurring most often in the first column and the highest number drawn in the matrix will always be the number occurring most often in the last column.

          gl

          j

          Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

          Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

           =^.^=

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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            Posted: March 29, 2006, 1:34 pm - IP Logged

            When you look at the last 80 drawings of MegaMillions since the matrix changes and use plain math instead of statistical regression and use the most active numbers, you get the following.

            Column One = 02,14
            Column Two = 16,17,20
            Column Three = 27
            Column Four = 50,51
            Column Five = 52,54
            MegaBall = 04,36

            When you compare the group with the actually drawings, the following show up.

            03/10/06  04 17 18 51 54    +31
            11/11/05  09 14 34 50 51    +40
            08/02/05  17 22 39 50 52    +46

            RJOh

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one * 
               
                          Evil Looking       

              four4me's avatar - gate1
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              Posted: March 29, 2006, 2:00 pm - IP Logged
              regression
              1 : the act or an instance of regressing
              2 : a trend or shift toward a lower or less perfect state: as a : progressive decline of a manifestation of disease b (1) : gradual loss of differentiation and function by a body part especially as a physiological change accompanying aging (2) : gradual loss of memories and acquired skills c : reversion to an earlier mental or behavioral level d : a functional relationship between two or more correlated variables that is often empirically determined from data and is used especially to predict values of one variable when given values of the others <the regression of y on x is linear> ; specifically : a function that yields the mean value of a random variable under the condition that one or more independent variables have specified values
              3 : retrograde motion
                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                Posted: March 29, 2006, 2:15 pm - IP Logged

                d : a functional relationship between two or more correlated variables that is often empirically determined from data and is used especially to predict values of one variable when given values of the others <the regression of y on x is linear> ; specifically : a function that yields the mean value of a random variable under the condition that one or more independent variables have specified values

                That's the definition that jschay56 was referring to, but just adding up the numbers in each column and picking the most active or an average of the group will get almost the same results.  Since this is trying to predict a random event and not rocket science, it's probably close enough, at least for me.

                RJOh

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one * 
                   
                              Evil Looking       

                  four4me's avatar - gate1
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                  Posted: March 29, 2006, 2:21 pm - IP Logged

                  Rjoh i have no complaints with your picks in fact some of your wheeling methods are great. i have tried several ways to wheel the whole set of numbers for mega and many times depending on how i input the numbers i have got 3 of 5 now all i need to do is get lucky and trap all 5...   

                    johnph77's avatar - avatar
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                    Posted: March 30, 2006, 1:34 am - IP Logged

                    Frequency chart per column for 5/56 matrix:

                    ABCDETotal
                    1341055341055
                    231625124804341055
                    3292825468521378341055
                    427072566300397852341055
                    52499008330076502041341055
                    623030098000122505005341055
                    72118761105441764098015341055
                    819458012107223688168035341055
                    917836512972030268263270341055
                    10163185136620372603864126341055
                    11148995141900445505400210341055
                    12135751145684520307260330341055
                    13123410148092595989460495341055
                    141119301492406715812012715341055
                    1510127014924074620149241001341055
                    169139014820081900182001365341055
                    178225114622488920218401820341055
                    187381514341295608258402380341055
                    1966045139860101898301923060341055
                    2058905135660107730348843876341055
                    2152360130900113050399004845341055
                    2246376125664117810452205985341055
                    2340920120032121968508207315341055
                    2435960114080125488566728855341055
                    25314651078801283406274410626341055
                    26274051015001305006900012650341055
                    2723751950041319507540014950341055
                    2820475884521326788190017550341055
                    2917550819001326788845220475341055
                    3014950754001319509500423751341055
                    31126506900013050010150027405341055
                    32106266274412834010788031465341055
                    3388555667212548811408035960341055
                    3473155082012196812003240920341055
                    3559854522011781012566446376341055
                    3648453990011305013090052360341055
                    3738763488410773013566058905341055
                    3830603019210189813986066045341055
                    392380258409560814341273815341055
                    401820218408892014622482251341055
                    411365182008190014820091390341055
                    4210011492474620149240101270341055
                    437151201267158149240111930341055
                    44495946059598148092123410341055
                    45330726052030145684135751341055
                    46210540044550141900148995341055
                    47126386437260136620163185341055
                    4870263230268129720178365341055
                    4935168023688121072194580341055
                    501598017640110544211876341055
                    5155001225098000230300341055
                    521204765083300249900341055
                    5352397866300270725341055
                    54137846852292825341055
                    5524804316251341055
                    56341055341055
                    Total38198163819816381981638198163819816

                     

                    gl

                    j

                    Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

                    Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

                     =^.^=

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                      Posted: April 1, 2006, 11:41 am - IP Logged

                      This chart is interesting (and correct) but meaningless.  It only tells you how many other combinations are available if balls are drawn and reported in numerical order.  For those of you that do not know what this chart means, for example, if the number 23 is the 3rd ball drawn (in numerical order, not actual draw order), there are only 121,968 other posible combinations in the 1-5 positions, mega ball not included.  The real odds from here (23 in 3rd spot is 121,968*46=5,610,528).  If balls were chosen in numerical order, I would agree, but they are not.  If you absolutely knew 23 was going to be the third ball, which you can't know, your odds are 1:5.6 million rather than 1:175.7 million.

                       

                      Because any number can be drawn in any position, the actual chart should look like this:  (sorry)

                       

                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211
                      6821168211682116821168211

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                        Posted: April 1, 2006, 12:35 pm - IP Logged

                        meg4m1|10ns

                        Your chart lacks any rows or columns definitions, what does it all mean?  While any number may be drawn at any time, once sorted the number 1 can only occupy the first position as with the highest number in the pool can only occupy the last position.

                        RJOh 

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one * 
                           
                                      Evil Looking       

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                          Posted: April 1, 2006, 7:04 pm - IP Logged

                          RJOh

                           There are 5 columns and 56 rows in my chart.  Each row adds up to 341,055.  Each column adds up to 3,819,816.  That's MegaMillions.

                           You make my point perfectly when you say, "any number may be drawn at any time".  In a perfect world, after 56 drawings, one could expect each number to have been drawn 5 times.  This would make the lottery kinda pointless because it could only last 56 drawings, getting easier with each draw.  From that point on, the only numbers that could hit was the draw 57 plays ago as those numbers drop off.

                           I don't see the point in sorting draws into numerical order.  It has no bearing on future draws.  There is no pattern or formula, going forward or back, that can tell you what the next draw will be or what the previous draw was.

                           Looking at the first chart and going back the last 56 draws, by position alone, the following numbers appear to be behind (or cold):  1, 13, 29, 45 and 47.  Number one has been drawn 3 times in the last 56 draws.  The math is 341,055/3,819,816*56=5 minus the 3 draws is positive 2.  Let's do another, the 14 in the first position:  111,930/3,819,816*56=1.641 minus the 6 draws in the first position (ignoring 14 has been drawn two other times) is negative 4.359!  Nobody would dare play 14.  Right?  Look at 14 again, this time in the second position:  149,240/3,819,816*56=2.188 minus the 1 time it drew in the second position, makes 14 look really good.  In fact, this way, 14 is in a 2-way tie for second place for the second ball with the 15 ball.  Since 14 has been drawn 8 times total minus the five expected after 56 draws, 14 is really negative 3 overall.

                           I wouldn't play 1, 13, 29, 45 and 47 if I were you.  Not only did I point out what was cold by this method, and anybody could play this, many hundreds if not thousands already have.  I say this because this is one of the easiest ways to look at the lottery.

                           What if 1,000 people played those numbers.  Of that 1,000, 1 in 46 would get the mega ball right.  That would be 21 jackpot winners and 979 2nd place 250k winners.  Do you remember the people in "Bruce Almighty" that won $17.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                            Posted: April 3, 2006, 4:01 pm - IP Logged

                            meg4m1|10ns,

                            I still don't understand what information your 5X56 chart with 68211 in every position is trying to show.  What law of physic did you use to define the perfect world you described?  I would think in any world perfect or not, if five balls were randomly drawn out a pool of 56, the results would be just as unpredictable each time.  In the last 56 MegaMillions drawings 74% of the numbers were from a pool of 33 which might suggest a bias that can be exploited.

                            RJOh

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one * 
                               
                                          Evil Looking       

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                              Posted: April 3, 2006, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

                              You won't understand.  There is no pattern or formula, forward or back, to give you what the next numbers will be or what the previous numbers were.  Period.

                               Wasn't it the Pennsylvania Daily, sometime back in the 80's, where somebody injected a drop of paint into some of the balls?  THAT IS BIAS!!!