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$400 million jackpot

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 10 years ago by CASH Only.

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When will it happen?

This year [ 15 ]  [36.59%]
2007 [ 10 ]  [24.39%]
2008 [ 3 ]  [7.32%]
2009 [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
2010 [ 2 ]  [4.88%]
2011 [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
2012 [ 1 ]  [2.44%]
2013 [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
2014 or later [ 1 ]  [2.44%]
Never [ 9 ]  [21.95%]
Total Valid Votes [ 41 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 8 ]  

United States
Member #379
June 5, 2002
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Posted: May 13, 2006, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

The former Big Game had its record jackpot in 2000. Mega Millions has not broken it. Powerball reached its high this year.

    dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

    United States
    Member #2338
    September 17, 2003
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    Posted: May 14, 2006, 11:27 am - IP Logged

    With increasing interest rates it's possible. At a 50% cash to annuity level Euromillions was already above it since it hit $219 Million cash but I don't think Euromillions will get that high again in the next 2-6 years without a matrix and rule change. Considering the extremely high odds of Megamillions is should have gotten there by now. It seems cursed to offer low prizes however.

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      Morrison, IL
      United States
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      May 13, 2004
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      Posted: May 14, 2006, 12:48 pm - IP Logged

      My money's on 2007, for either Powerball or Mega Millions


        United States
        Member #16612
        June 2, 2005
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        Posted: May 14, 2006, 1:11 pm - IP Logged

        My vote is for this year. If MM and PB continue to roll without a jackpot winner, it can happen.

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          md
          United States
          Member #14047
          April 20, 2005
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          Posted: May 16, 2006, 10:38 am - IP Logged

          MM will be the first to $400, and that will happen in 2007.  However, I believe we will have a $300m roll in about a month with either PB or MM getting past the $300m mark.

            dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

            United States
            Member #2338
            September 17, 2003
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            Posted: May 16, 2006, 1:38 pm - IP Logged

            I would doubt it. Powerball would have cracked the 400 mark if it weren't for the cap.

            Odds of either game making it to 100 million are far greater than it going from 100 million to 300 million. Most hits occur in that range.  

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              Morrison, IL
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              Posted: May 16, 2006, 3:49 pm - IP Logged

              Yep, that is true. Mega Millions does because it has so many players, and Powerball does because it has too many draws in that range it has to make it through to get to $300 million.

                dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

                United States
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                Posted: May 17, 2006, 1:18 am - IP Logged

                Looks like the Megamillions curse of low prizes continues. Powerball sales might go up a little since the competition is out. Jackpot should hit the cap on the 10th (365 + 19.6M bonus) of 390M. It might tick of NC players but at least they would know what they are missing. The cap now would give 171.6 cash or 111 after federal tax.

                  dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

                  United States
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                  September 17, 2003
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                  Posted: May 17, 2006, 1:49 am - IP Logged

                  Looks like I'm wrong. Sales start on the 30th of may so Powerball will only make it to the 250 level tops.

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                    Morrison, IL
                    United States
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                    Posted: May 17, 2006, 12:44 pm - IP Logged

                    Looks like the Megamillions curse of low prizes continues. Powerball sales might go up a little since the competition is out. Jackpot should hit the cap on the 10th (365 + 19.6M bonus) of 390M. It might tick of NC players but at least they would know what they are missing. The cap now would give 171.6 cash or 111 after federal tax.

                    That stinks that rising interest rates will make the cash jackpot of a new Powerball annuity record lower than the cash jackpot of the old annuity record. They should apply the cap to the cash jackpot instead (such as $12 million max cash rollover) despite how hard it would be for the MUSL to explain that to the players!


                      United States
                      Member #379
                      June 5, 2002
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                      Posted: May 18, 2006, 10:54 am - IP Logged

                      Looks like the Megamillions curse of low prizes continues. Powerball sales might go up a little since the competition is out. Jackpot should hit the cap on the 10th (365 + 19.6M bonus) of 390M. It might tick of NC players but at least they would know what they are missing. The cap now would give 171.6 cash or 111 after federal tax.

                      That stinks that rising interest rates will make the cash jackpot of a new Powerball annuity record lower than the cash jackpot of the old annuity record. They should apply the cap to the cash jackpot instead (such as $12 million max cash rollover) despite how hard it would be for the MUSL to explain that to the players!

                      I like the cap rule the way it is. Unlimited jackpots are still possible, while second prizes are increased.

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                        Morrison, IL
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                        Posted: May 18, 2006, 11:55 am - IP Logged

                        I guess Powerball's just not meant to have a record cash jackpot.


                          United States
                          Member #379
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                          Posted: May 19, 2006, 2:21 pm - IP Logged

                          I guess Powerball's just not meant to have a record cash jackpot.

                          Neither is MM right now. But MM will reach $400m first.

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                            New Jersey
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                            September 4, 2005
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                            Posted: May 19, 2006, 4:47 pm - IP Logged

                            For what it's worth, the mathematical models I have developed for MM and Powerball predict that Powerball has a slightly higher probability of rolling to the $400M area.  It seems that MM has about a 2% chance of reaching this level starting from the first draw whereas PB has a 3% chance.

                            I have shown elsewhere that one statistical approach shows that under current conditions prevailing (and who knows how long they will prevail) MM should have a 50% chance of producing a $400M jackpot in roughly a three year period, and a 98% chance of producing such a jackpot in about 2 decades.

                            Still the laws of probability are such that it could happen on this run or never happen in our lifetimes. 

                             

                             

                              dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

                              United States
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                              Posted: May 19, 2006, 11:44 pm - IP Logged

                              I always thought the matrix in MM should have been slightly higher. Considering the odds the prizes aren't that high.