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# \$400 million jackpot

Topic closed. 38 replies. Last post 10 years ago by CASH Only.

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When will it happen?

 This year [ 15 ] [36.59%] 2007 [ 10 ] [24.39%] 2008 [ 3 ] [7.32%] 2009 [ 0 ] [0.00%] 2010 [ 2 ] [4.88%] 2011 [ 0 ] [0.00%] 2012 [ 1 ] [2.44%] 2013 [ 0 ] [0.00%] 2014 or later [ 1 ] [2.44%] Never [ 9 ] [21.95%] Total Valid Votes [ 41 ] Discarded Votes [ 8 ]

United States
Member #379
June 5, 2002
11296 Posts
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 Posted: May 21, 2006, 1:35 pm - IP Logged

For what it's worth, the mathematical models I have developed for MM and Powerball predict that Powerball has a slightly higher probability of rolling to the \$400M area.  It seems that MM has about a 2% chance of reaching this level starting from the first draw whereas PB has a 3% chance.

I have shown elsewhere that one statistical approach shows that under current conditions prevailing (and who knows how long they will prevail) MM should have a 50% chance of producing a \$400M jackpot in roughly a three year period, and a 98% chance of producing such a jackpot in about 2 decades.

Still the laws of probability are such that it could happen on this run or never happen in our lifetimes.

Are you including the PB cap? It's at \$390m right now (365+25).

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: June 15, 2006, 12:51 am - IP Logged

For what it's worth, the mathematical models I have developed for MM and Powerball predict that Powerball has a slightly higher probability of rolling to the \$400M area.  It seems that MM has about a 2% chance of reaching this level starting from the first draw whereas PB has a 3% chance.

I have shown elsewhere that one statistical approach shows that under current conditions prevailing (and who knows how long they will prevail) MM should have a 50% chance of producing a \$400M jackpot in roughly a three year period, and a 98% chance of producing such a jackpot in about 2 decades.

Still the laws of probability are such that it could happen on this run or never happen in our lifetimes.

Are you including the PB cap? It's at \$390m right now (365+25).

This is why I chose the word "area."  It seems to me that a \$390M annuity jackpot will be close enough for government work.  In these types of calculations, I generally ignore factors like reseves and caps.

I note that the cash value is not likely to set any records in Powerball, especially with the cap based on a restructured annuity.  I'm going to guess that Jack Whitaker's cash prize will beat all future cash prizes for quite some time.

United States
Member #379
June 5, 2002
11296 Posts
Offline
 Posted: June 15, 2006, 11:18 am - IP Logged

For what it's worth, the mathematical models I have developed for MM and Powerball predict that Powerball has a slightly higher probability of rolling to the \$400M area.  It seems that MM has about a 2% chance of reaching this level starting from the first draw whereas PB has a 3% chance.

I have shown elsewhere that one statistical approach shows that under current conditions prevailing (and who knows how long they will prevail) MM should have a 50% chance of producing a \$400M jackpot in roughly a three year period, and a 98% chance of producing such a jackpot in about 2 decades.

Still the laws of probability are such that it could happen on this run or never happen in our lifetimes.

Are you including the PB cap? It's at \$390m right now (365+25).

This is why I chose the word "area."  It seems to me that a \$390M annuity jackpot will be close enough for government work.  In these types of calculations, I generally ignore factors like reseves and caps.

I note that the cash value is not likely to set any records in Powerball, especially with the cap based on a restructured annuity.  I'm going to guess that Jack Whitaker's cash prize will beat all future cash prizes for quite some time.

It would be terrible if somebody misses out on topping JW's record cash prize simply because they choose annuity. Very much so.

Morrison, IL
United States
Member #4657
May 13, 2004
1884 Posts
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 Posted: June 15, 2006, 12:26 pm - IP Logged

Actually, the \$365 million Powerball jackpot won back in February had a higher cash value than JWs prize, and that was won by a single ticket. JW's cash prize was \$173 million, while last February's cash jackpot was \$177 million.

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: June 16, 2006, 8:01 am - IP Logged

Actually, the \$365 million Powerball jackpot won back in February had a higher cash value than JWs prize, and that was won by a single ticket. JW's cash prize was \$173 million, while last February's cash jackpot was \$177 million.

But it was won by a group and not a single player.

Whittaker is still the single record holder.

But clearly your point is well taken.  It is theoretically possible for a single player to beat Jack's record.  Hopefully they also won't beat his records for irresponsibility as well.

United States
Member #2338
September 17, 2003
2063 Posts
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 Posted: June 16, 2006, 11:56 pm - IP Logged

The record cashpot is held by Euromillions however I doubt that game will roll past \$200 million any time soon.

Morrison, IL
United States
Member #4657
May 13, 2004
1884 Posts
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 Posted: June 17, 2006, 1:40 am - IP Logged

Mega Millions got hit again before making it to \$100 million. That's the third time in a row.

Tennessee
United States
Member #7853
October 15, 2004
11338 Posts
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 Posted: June 17, 2006, 1:49 am - IP Logged

Actually, the \$365 million Powerball jackpot won back in February had a higher cash value than JWs prize, and that was won by a single ticket. JW's cash prize was \$173 million, while last February's cash jackpot was \$177 million.

But it was won by a group and not a single player.

Whittaker is still the single record holder.

But clearly your point is well taken.  It is theoretically possible for a single player to beat Jack's record.  Hopefully they also won't beat his records for irresponsibility as well.

you got that right.whitaker will be the record holder for bad luck after a major jackpot win.family members dying,alcohol and drug scandals,the strip club incidents,death threats,driving woes,etc. you name it he has had problems with it.............

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: June 17, 2006, 3:00 am - IP Logged

Mega Millions got hit again before making it to \$100 million. That's the third time in a row.

At the outset of a run, there is only a 43% chance, roughly, of reaching a \$100M jackpot.

It takes about 5 runs, statistically, to produce a 90% of reaching 100M.  It could happen every time, or it could never happen again though.

United States
Member #28409
December 15, 2005
1198 Posts
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 Posted: June 17, 2006, 11:30 am - IP Logged

what are the odds of someone hitting pb tonight?

voir-vous dans mes reves!

United States
Member #12618
March 18, 2005
2060 Posts
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 Posted: June 17, 2006, 7:16 pm - IP Logged

I would like to see the PB jackpot get to 400 million this year or next, but I have a feeling it won't unless they change the matrix and I don't want that to happen.

Dance like no one is watching.

New Jersey
United States
Member #21206
September 4, 2005
949 Posts
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 Posted: June 17, 2006, 8:40 pm - IP Logged

Actually, the \$365 million Powerball jackpot won back in February had a higher cash value than JWs prize, and that was won by a single ticket. JW's cash prize was \$173 million, while last February's cash jackpot was \$177 million.

But it was won by a group and not a single player.

Whittaker is still the single record holder.

But clearly your point is well taken.  It is theoretically possible for a single player to beat Jack's record.  Hopefully they also won't beat his records for irresponsibility as well.

you got that right.whitaker will be the record holder for bad luck after a major jackpot win.family members dying,alcohol and drug scandals,the strip club incidents,death threats,driving woes,etc. you name it he has had problems with it.............

I don't think that in Whitaker's case his behavior has much to do with luck.

Winning the lottery is certainly an event involving luck, but being a winner doesn't make you better or worse than anyone else.  It's what you do after you win that measures you.  Whitaker's "bad luck" all involves his own choices.

No one made him drive drunk.  No one made him go to those girlie bars.  No one made him treat his grand-daughter so irresponsibly.    I really have almost no sympathy for him.

The only one I feel sorry for his wife.  None of this seems to be her doing.

United States
Member #379
June 5, 2002
11296 Posts
Offline
 Posted: June 19, 2006, 3:23 pm - IP Logged

Actually, the \$365 million Powerball jackpot won back in February had a higher cash value than JWs prize, and that was won by a single ticket. JW's cash prize was \$173 million, while last February's cash jackpot was \$177 million.

But it was won by a group and not a single player.

Whittaker is still the single record holder.

But clearly your point is well taken.  It is theoretically possible for a single player to beat Jack's record.  Hopefully they also won't beat his records for irresponsibility as well.

you got that right.whitaker will be the record holder for bad luck after a major jackpot win.family members dying,alcohol and drug scandals,the strip club incidents,death threats,driving woes,etc. you name it he has had problems with it.............

I don't think that in Whitaker's case his behavior has much to do with luck.

Winning the lottery is certainly an event involving luck, but being a winner doesn't make you better or worse than anyone else.  It's what you do after you win that measures you.  Whitaker's "bad luck" all involves his own choices.

No one made him drive drunk.  No one made him go to those girlie bars.  No one made him treat his grand-daughter so irresponsibly.    I really have almost no sympathy for him.

The only one I feel sorry for his wife.  None of this seems to be her doing.

But he DID choose lump sum. He got sound financial advice BEFORE he went public. After is another story.

United States
Member #2338
September 17, 2003
2063 Posts
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 Posted: June 22, 2006, 1:32 am - IP Logged

what are the odds of someone hitting pb tonight?

100% - I love that clear vision hindsight gives.

Looks like both games are in a major slump. MM will no doubt fail to break 100 million or go to 105 million then get hit.

PB is also not doing nearly as well as last year. Time will tell if the addition of North Carolina sank the run of larger pots Powerball was getting.

United States
Member #379
June 5, 2002
11296 Posts
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 Posted: June 22, 2006, 11:49 am - IP Logged

The jackpot will be up to \$500 million on 9/28/07. it can never happen in 2009 or after that because gas prices will be so high it will cost like \$200 to full up your SUV.  But it will happen in mega millions never in powerball, maybe because that stupid cap who knows.  I don't know it just seems like to me that mega millions is a better game for some reason, theres just something about powerball i don't like.

I actually like the PB cap. But it means MM will hit 400m first.

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