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Pick 4 Math Help?

Topic closed. 31 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Badger.

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Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
Wisconsin
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March 27, 2003
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Posted: June 11, 2006, 12:10 am - IP Logged

Hey Badger,

If you were after the math you got your answer, but if you think that combo is ripe for the pickin' have you taken into consideration the method of drawing has changed? Didn't everything go to computerized drawings some time back? If so, I wouldn't keep any data before the change was made. It would be like mixing apples and oranges.

Best of Luck,

Bryan  :) 

Hi Bryan,

Yeah, a couple years (a year and a half?) they went to RNG. But in spite of that, and I do know the debate offered on LP about machines vs RNG, I have found very little difference in hitting states where they use RNG vs states still using machines. I do prefer to play the machine states, but that is mostly because there are fewer of them, and I use this for a method of reducing the number of states that I have to examine.

I know there is likely more potential for fraud possible by someone in an RNG's state Lottery Commission, but really....I've hit just as "easily" (not that any of them are "easy") in RNG states in both P3 and P4 as I have in machine states. So, to me at least, whether a state runs an RNG or not just doesn't bother me any more. The short-term patterns show up in both, and both end up adhering to long term statisical patterns as well.

Mostly, success in the Daily Games seems to be a matter of picking the "right" day and state. ANd there doesn't seem to be a method for that.

Hey,

Do you know exactly when they went to RNG...?

Anyone...?

/Derek7 

I think they went to RNG on 9/01/2004. My recall is that they did it and did not announce it until November of that year.  A pretty low thing to do, really.

============

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Answer: His lips are moving.

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    WISCONSIN
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    Posted: July 8, 2006, 1:15 am - IP Logged

          WI----> Hit With Stick <----p-3 p-4 player....

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      Poway CA (San Diego County)
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      Posted: July 8, 2006, 1:23 am - IP Logged

      Data for the Pick 3 is available easily in many places. But I've become a lot keener on playing Pick 4, and the various breakdowns don't seem as readily available.

      So if any of you are into P4 I'd appeciate you reading this post and correcting me if anything that follows is incorrect.

      In terms of BOXED combinations for P4, I'm coming up with

      210 single combos

      360 doubles combos

      45 "double" doubles combos

      90 triples combos

      10 Quads

      That's a total of 715 possible boxed P4 combos.

      Now, I'm trying to figure the math on something and here it is.....in Wisconsin, the boxed combo 0246 has skipped over 3,000 drawings. That seems an awful lot to me, even though the singles combos account for only 30% of all the possible combos. The thing has not hit in any of its permutations in over eight years !

      So I'm wondering...how often, statistically, should any particular "singles" combo hit in a Pick 4? Anyone out there that knows the math?

      In 3,000 drawings a 24-way number should hit 7 times.

       

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        Poway CA (San Diego County)
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        Posted: July 8, 2006, 1:42 am - IP Logged

        Badger,

        You would be better off (IMO) to play the hot numbers not the numbers that are overdue.  As you can see, if long ago you would have looked at 0246 and saw that it had skipped 2,000 drawings and decided it was time to start playing it, you would have played it over 1,000 times now and STILL missed. 

        All the time on LP you will see people talking about a particular number or sum, etc. that is way over due.  And it stays that way!!  Sir Issac Newton did not know about the lotto, but he did say that a body in motion tends to stay in motion; a body at rest tends to stay at rest.  This works for the lotto also.  Also, look at the posts here and you will see people talking about something happening over and over again (hot). 

        So, it just boils to the the question of do you want to play winners or losers?  If you were betting on a horse race and there were 5 horses in the race, one of them has won all 12 of his races, the others did very well also, then there is the horse that has run 12 races and was never in the money.  You might want to bet on that horse, but I would bet on the horse that has never lost.

        I teach people how to play and win blackjack.  One of the main things I teach them is how to ride a winning streak.  When it hits, it can be unbelievable.  It seems like you can't do wrong.  That is when you "press" your bet and make your money, not when you are on a losing streak.

          four4me's avatar - gate1
          MD
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          Posted: July 8, 2006, 2:29 am - IP Logged

          0246 has never hit straight in maryland either. along with about 4000 other p4 numbers that haven't hit straight.

          I havn't figured out the amount of yrs for a total of p4 draws but i'll say it's been about 25yrs. combining midday and evening draws. around 18,000 draws.

          so based on this info i'll be dead and buried long before all 10000 pick4's have hit straight. Fact is there probably are some p4's straights that might never hit in our lifetime.

            Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
            Wisconsin
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            Posted: July 8, 2006, 8:40 am - IP Logged

            Badger,

            You would be better off (IMO) to play the hot numbers not the numbers that are overdue.  As you can see, if long ago you would have looked at 0246 and saw that it had skipped 2,000 drawings and decided it was time to start playing it, you would have played it over 1,000 times now and STILL missed. 

            All the time on LP you will see people talking about a particular number or sum, etc. that is way over due.  And it stays that way!!  Sir Issac Newton did not know about the lotto, but he did say that a body in motion tends to stay in motion; a body at rest tends to stay at rest.  This works for the lotto also.  Also, look at the posts here and you will see people talking about something happening over and over again (hot). 

            So, it just boils to the the question of do you want to play winners or losers?  If you were betting on a horse race and there were 5 horses in the race, one of them has won all 12 of his races, the others did very well also, then there is the horse that has run 12 races and was never in the money.  You might want to bet on that horse, but I would bet on the horse that has never lost.

            I teach people how to play and win blackjack.  One of the main things I teach them is how to ride a winning streak.  When it hits, it can be unbelievable.  It seems like you can't do wrong.  That is when you "press" your bet and make your money, not when you are on a losing streak.

            The problem with lotto is that hot digits, by themselves, usually seldom show up in combinations drawn. There are always cold digits and warm/average digits involved. So we are back to just taking a "best shot".  You look and (let's say) "9" has fallen 5 times in the last seven draws. You think it's "hot". It suddenly goes on hiatus for 10-15 draws. Happens all the time with hot digits. And that's only one of the pitfalls. I guess that's why the games are so interesting, but it's also why they're so frustrating so often.

            I've hit a number of times betting the "most out" combos in WI as boxes. It's a cheap bet "on the street". 0246 being it should have hit 7 times by now, statistically, is a good enough candidate to me for a buck a few times a week. I wouldn't chase it as a straight, since that would be rather foolish IMHO.

            In the end, it all comes down to some luck. (and what is luck....that could be the topic of an entirely different thread) -- if you play the right combo on the day it happens to fall, you win. You can go crazy trying to "force" your picked combos to hit....and play so many combos that when you do win, you have lost a lot of money chasing your "winner". I don't look to "hit" in the Daily Games. I'm looking to "win". And by my definitions, those are two different things. Throw enough combos in play and you will hit. But you won't win.

            ============

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              Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
              New York, NY
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              Posted: July 8, 2006, 9:08 am - IP Logged

              Good post badger.

              If someone is looking for a long overdue combo liike 0246

              why not try such combinations

               

              . Break up the number into its pairs , mirror the pairs ormone digit..and try combos with these tweaks...

              One will come.

              I don't know which state someone is looking for 0246 but check this out 

               

              Pairs:      02, 04, 06, 24, 26, 46

              1_digit mirror: 52, 54, 56, 74, 76, 96, 07, 09, 01, 29, 21, 41

              Pair Mirrors:  57, 59, 51, 79, 71, 91

              If any of the poairs in the overdue number shows up

               then one of the mirror pairs or 1-digit pair with at least one of the digits wilkl show up next draw...

               

               

              $$$

                Raven62's avatar - binary
                New Jersey
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                Posted: July 8, 2006, 10:41 am - IP Logged

                For one reason or another some combinations do not occur at the frequency expected, and falling in love with these combinations will cost you $$$. Some popular combinations may be banned, which would explain the low hit count.

                Game(s): Wisconsin Daily Pick 4
                Date range: All Available History

                ABCD=0246=1 hit

                ABC=024=64 hits
                ABD=026=62 hits
                ACD=046=47 hits
                BCD=246=50 hits

                Tier 14
                1042(4012,2014,4102,1420,4201,1204,4201,4201,0124,2410,1420,1240,1420)

                Tier 12
                1206(1206,6012,1206,1206,2160,0261,2106,0126,6201,2610,1620)

                Tier 11
                6250(6052,6250,5602,5026,2605,5062,5062,5062,2605,2506) 6049(0694,4096,4609,9064,6904,4690,9604,9064,9046,4960)

                Tier 10
                4250(0524,0425,4052,0452,4250,2405,4025,2045,4250) 2067(0726,6270,6027,2076,2760,2706,6720,2670,2670)

                Tier 9
                3420(0342,2340,3240,3024,2034,0243,3240,3042) 8204(4820,8024,2804,8024,8420,2408,2804,2804)
                0628(0682,6280,0862,8062,0286,8062,8602,0862)

                Tier 8
                2096(6209,6902,2069,2960,0629,9026,0926) 4263(3624,6234,4263,2436,4362,6234,2346) 6429(4926,9426,9426,4629,2964,6249,9624) 4726(7264,6427,6247,6724,7246,7462,7426)

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                  Poway CA (San Diego County)
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                  Posted: July 8, 2006, 11:44 am - IP Logged

                  If you like playing overdue numbers, try 999 in Texas.  It has not hit in Midday or Evening since the beginning of Pick 3 in Texas (January 1997).  So, when does one start betting an overdue number and when does one quit (go broke)?  If you noticed in 2000 that 999 had not hit for 3 years, and you started playing it, you would have been playing it now for 6 years.  Even with progressive betting, you would have had to sell the house and the kids just to play 999 in Texas!

                  Someone the other day mentioned a 6-way number somewhere that had not hit in 18 years or something like that. 

                  I know a lot of people look for overdue numbers/sums/root sums, etc.  And that is fine for those people, but I would rather play what is hot.

                   

                    Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                    Wisconsin
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                    Posted: July 8, 2006, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

                    Good post badger.

                    If someone is looking for a long overdue combo liike 0246

                    why not try such combinations

                     

                    . Break up the number into its pairs , mirror the pairs ormone digit..and try combos with these tweaks...

                    One will come.

                    I don't know which state someone is looking for 0246 but check this out 

                     

                    Pairs:      02, 04, 06, 24, 26, 46

                    1_digit mirror: 52, 54, 56, 74, 76, 96, 07, 09, 01, 29, 21, 41

                    Pair Mirrors:  57, 59, 51, 79, 71, 91

                    If any of the poairs in the overdue number shows up

                     then one of the mirror pairs or 1-digit pair with at least one of the digits wilkl show up next draw...

                     

                     

                    Something to think about and play around with...thanks.

                    ============

                    How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                    Answer: His lips are moving.

                      Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                      Wisconsin
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                      Posted: July 8, 2006, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

                      If you like playing overdue numbers, try 999 in Texas.  It has not hit in Midday or Evening since the beginning of Pick 3 in Texas (January 1997).  So, when does one start betting an overdue number and when does one quit (go broke)?  If you noticed in 2000 that 999 had not hit for 3 years, and you started playing it, you would have been playing it now for 6 years.  Even with progressive betting, you would have had to sell the house and the kids just to play 999 in Texas!

                      Someone the other day mentioned a 6-way number somewhere that had not hit in 18 years or something like that. 

                      I know a lot of people look for overdue numbers/sums/root sums, etc.  And that is fine for those people, but I would rather play what is hot.

                       

                      Well I don't play 0246 boxed daily. Like I said, in the end, the Daily Games are all about lucky timing. Whatever combo you are looking at WILL hit one day...the thing no one knows is when. You just have to hope its the day you play it.

                      As to hot digits, as I mentioned earlier, that is IMHO just as tough a play, because combinations seldom are composed of all hot digits. If they were, everyone would have easier winners all the time. So to me, there is little difference. It's merely a choice we each make as to what we feel like playing. We each find our own comfort zone, and the thing we can't control is knowing when to play a combination that willl hit today in the state we play it in. LOL !

                      ============

                      How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                      Answer: His lips are moving.

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                        Poway CA (San Diego County)
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                        Posted: July 8, 2006, 7:20 pm - IP Logged

                        If you like playing overdue numbers, try 999 in Texas.  It has not hit in Midday or Evening since the beginning of Pick 3 in Texas (January 1997).  So, when does one start betting an overdue number and when does one quit (go broke)?  If you noticed in 2000 that 999 had not hit for 3 years, and you started playing it, you would have been playing it now for 6 years.  Even with progressive betting, you would have had to sell the house and the kids just to play 999 in Texas!

                        Someone the other day mentioned a 6-way number somewhere that had not hit in 18 years or something like that. 

                        I know a lot of people look for overdue numbers/sums/root sums, etc.  And that is fine for those people, but I would rather play what is hot.

                         

                        Well I don't play 0246 boxed daily. Like I said, in the end, the Daily Games are all about lucky timing. Whatever combo you are looking at WILL hit one day...the thing no one knows is when. You just have to hope its the day you play it.

                        As to hot digits, as I mentioned earlier, that is IMHO just as tough a play, because combinations seldom are composed of all hot digits. If they were, everyone would have easier winners all the time. So to me, there is little difference. It's merely a choice we each make as to what we feel like playing. We each find our own comfort zone, and the thing we can't control is knowing when to play a combination that willl hit today in the state we play it in. LOL !

                        I don't think you will find that I said "play all hot digits".  If you have a state/draw that seems to never have more than 3 odd or even sums in a row, then you watch for that pattern and play it.  There are a LOT of things than can be hot or cold besides just digits.  I (well 9 of us) made a lot of money playing Tennessee Pick 3 online in a few months.  There was a pattern of high/low and odd/even that I saw and followed.  At one point we were up to $3 a number.  It was amazing and lots of fun, but it finally quit.  So, looking for trends is what I am talking about.

                         

                          paurths's avatar - underground
                          Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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                          Posted: July 8, 2006, 8:43 pm - IP Logged

                          Hi,

                          it was mentioned before in this thread, the numbers that fall are combinations of hot and cold (and in between).
                          Same goes for high low, odd even, in out, ... name it.

                          0246; take it into pieces

                          024: not hitting that bad in WI, last skips 16, 58, 90, 30, 10, 0, 159 draws, currently skip of 5 draws, with an average of 49.54 draws
                          026: has just had its share of being invisible, last skips 98, 209, 40, 29n 24, 112, currently skip of 15 draws, with an average of 51.28 draws
                          046: Doin' good ! last skips: 39, 1, 29, 11, 67, 64, 16, current skip of 28 with an average skip of 66.43
                          246: oops, current skip is 111 draws...cold,  before this; 38, 6, 3, 16, 11, 14, 34, 19, 45, 122, 34, 102 , with an average skip of 62.19

                          It's an all even 24-way: current skip in WI for this is 157 draws, with an average of 112.42 draws. Previous skips: 345 (!), 9, 167, 93, 410(!), 291, 55, 78, 140

                          Sum 12: Current skip 34 draws, with an average of 26.33 draws. Last skips: 24, 2, 31, 2, 11, 96, 1, 16, 21, 0, 17, 48, 10, ...

                          Root 3: Current skip is 3 draws out, with an average of 9.37. Previous skips: 14, 10, 1, 2, 17, 6, 2, 12, 18 (these are truly bad skip & hits; look at root 8 in WI: last skips: 7, 4, 1, 4, 16, 6, 7, 3, 4, 7, 0, 2, 1, ...)

                          Widths, box:
                          Total width = 6 (6 - 0):  nice and steady skips; currently at 4 draws out, average = 5.91, last skips: 1, 1, 0, 5, 1, 6, 2, 9, 0, 0, 0, 1, 4, 2, ...
                          (btw, width 7 is out for 43 draws lol)

                          the other 3 box widths (low-second low, second low-second high, second high-high) are all width 2: their skips are extremely steady, not one is missing, so they are (well, perhaps not hot) but certainly "playable" lol

                          ....

                          Greetz
                          Ricky

                            four4me's avatar - gate1
                            MD
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                            Posted: July 8, 2006, 8:59 pm - IP Logged

                            Wisconsin's lottery pick 4 draws haven't been out ten yrs yet and only one draw a day. Close to 3590 draws ther abouts.

                            You probably have 8500 numbers that havent hit straight yet.

                              Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
                              Wisconsin
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                              Posted: July 8, 2006, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

                              Wisconsin's lottery pick 4 draws haven't been out ten yrs yet and only one draw a day. Close to 3590 draws ther abouts.

                              You probably have 8500 numbers that havent hit straight yet.

                              I'm not looking at straight. THe 0246 has been out period (not even a box) for over 3,000 draws.

                              ============

                              How can you tell if a politician is lying?

                              Answer: His lips are moving.