Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 10, 2016, 5:39 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

how far back do you go.

Topic closed. 22 replies. Last post 10 years ago by mchpick3!.

Page 1 of 2
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar

United States
Member #20470
August 18, 2005
221 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 1, 2006, 11:00 am - IP Logged

when picking  out numbers how far does one go back, 10 or 20 or 50 games ? i have not found any yet.

    Avatar
    New Mexico
    United States
    Member #12305
    March 10, 2005
    2984 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 1, 2006, 11:16 am - IP Logged

    when picking  out numbers how far does one go back, 10 or 20 or 50 games ? i have not found any yet.

    Morning to you.

    I hope you get a lot of response to this question.  There's a wide body of viewpoints.

    I've tried a lot of different approaches, but none have gone back some specific number of draws.  I use times and events of the past, lunar and various others, in trying to make picks.

    Some worked well, others less so.  None, as yet, have proven to be the key I'm looking for, the be all and end all.

    J

     

    Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

    It's about number behavior.

    Egos don't count.

     

    Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

     

      Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
      FEMA Region V Camp #21
      United States
      Member #520
      July 27, 2002
      5699 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: July 1, 2006, 11:32 am - IP Logged

      It depends on the game. I use 50 draws for jackpot type games and 10 draws for pick 3 & 4 type of games.

      Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


        Raven62's avatar - binary
        New Jersey
        United States
        Member #17843
        June 28, 2005
        49813 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: July 1, 2006, 11:44 am - IP Logged

        when picking  out numbers how far does one go back, 10 or 20 or 50 games ? i have not found any yet.

        In random drawings, all numbers should be drawn an equal number of
        times. For example, if you have a lottery consisting of a pool of 48
        numbers, and six numbers are picked from each drawing, then after 80
        drawings every number should have been picked ten times: (6x80/48=10).
        If a number has been picked more than ten times, that number is said to
        be a "hot" number. A number picked less than ten times is said to be a
        "cold" number. In a true random drawing, the long-run odds of a
        cold number being drawn should actually increase, since it is overdue to
        be drawn.

        Some schools of statistics theory say that odds of an event occurring
        does not increase or decrease based on prior events... that the "lottery
        balls have no memory". Note that this is only a theory, and theories
        are, by definition, unproven.

        But the "Theory of Unequal Distribution" and Barstow's "Law of
        Diminishing Probability", no less valid theories, hold that the life
        expectancy of any number run becomes progressively shorter as the number
        run grows longer. For example, in a 50-50 random event, such as flipping
        a coin, the odds of getting four heads in a row actually will occur once
        every 2^4 or 16 series of four coin tosses (or 6.25% of the time); the
        odds of getting five heads in a row will occur once every 2^5 or 32
        series of five tosses (3.125% of the time). So the odds of getting a
        "tails" increase with the length of run of "heads". This is the
        importance of tracking "cold" or "overdue" numbers.

        In a drawing that is "weighted", that is, some influence is effecting
        the outcome, hot numbers rule.

        Although state lotteries try to be pure random events, there are still
        factors that can cause certain numbers to be drawn more often than
        others. Does the lottery machine always start with the balls in a sorted
        order? Does the increased amount of ink on some balls have an effect?
        After all, the ink used to print the number "38" is considerable more
        that the ink that is printed a "1". Are the balls of equal diameter?
        Probably not; it would be difficult to keep the manufacturing process
        below .005 inch (.127 mm) variance in the thickness of the balls.

        So what strategy should you follow? Should you choose from a pool of all
        cold numbers? All hot numbers? A mixture? If so, what mixture? One hot,
        one cold, the rest non-hot/non-cold? As you can imagine, there are many
        combinations of strategies to choose from.

        Are you making reference to any particular Type of Game? (ie: Pick3, Pick4, Pick5, Pick6)

          Avatar

          United States
          Member #20470
          August 18, 2005
          221 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: July 1, 2006, 12:06 pm - IP Logged

          hi , well i try to play  pick 3, and ky. cashball, some times powerball.  i really dont like powerball because of the odds are so greate . well i all so  play a mix of even odd numbers when comes to hot and cold i am at a lost. thank you for answers.

            bellyache's avatar - 64x64a9wg

            United States
            Member #12618
            March 18, 2005
            2060 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: July 1, 2006, 1:10 pm - IP Logged

            It depends on the method I use sometimes I go back 5 drawings, sometimes more. I also sometimes uses dates that go back a few years.

            Dance like no one is watching.

              Avatar
              NASHVILLE, TENN
              United States
              Member #33372
              February 20, 2006
              1044 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: July 1, 2006, 1:21 pm - IP Logged

              For a Pick 5 game with 37,38,39, or 40 numbers, I go back 40 draws.   For a P5 game with 30 or so numbers, I go back 30.  Of course, this "going back" is solely for the purpose of determining frequency within that specific time frame. 

              And frequency will determine the hot and cold numbers for my "system".  I have discovered, however, that, in going back, doubling the number of draws gives me a differenct set of hot/cold numbers.

              I have therefore concluded that Quick Picks are the way to go.   LOL

                Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                Zeta Reticuli Star System
                United States
                Member #30470
                January 17, 2006
                10354 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: July 1, 2006, 1:33 pm - IP Logged

                I'm not sure about how far back you should go (I'm assuming you're talking about back-testing, or spotting trends- "due" numbers, etc...) but I am sure about if you go back far enough you'll reach a point where every number has hit just about an equal number of times.  

                For example, 1 may not hit as the Mega-Millions or Powerball number for months, and then hit three times in a row, or five draws out of six or so. It all balances out over time if you give it enough time.

                When Mega Millions expanded the matrix, the added on numbers were hitting an ordinate amount of times over what they should have been.  

                  Avatar
                  New Mexico
                  United States
                  Member #12305
                  March 10, 2005
                  2984 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: July 1, 2006, 1:54 pm - IP Logged

                  Nice thread, sook.

                  I'm giving it a bump.

                  J

                  Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                  It's about number behavior.

                  Egos don't count.

                   

                  Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                   

                    derek7's avatar - speedykat
                    IL
                    United States
                    Member #34578
                    March 4, 2006
                    198 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: July 1, 2006, 1:57 pm - IP Logged

                    Greetings!

                    I tried 4 draws (for P3 P4), 30 draws (p3,4) and for jackpot games: 12 draws, 50 draws, 150 draws, 200 drwas, ALL draws.

                    No luck for me! 

                    ...yet!

                    Derek 

                      MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

                      Norway
                      Member #9517
                      December 10, 2004
                      1272 Posts
                      Online
                      Posted: July 1, 2006, 2:48 pm - IP Logged

                      I go back 120 draws since my main lottery software at the moment, Lotto Sorcerer allow 120 draws as maximum for a 6/48 with 2 bonus numbers.

                      At the moment I am testing this software both for real and with back testing. To get a good chance at winning divisions on this software it seems to be necessary to use 16-18++ number wheels. Won a 5th division with the program this week with a 18 number wheel with 42 combinations. Not good enough of course, but I hope for some 4th division wins during the summer.

                      For my own systems still under development in the Excel lab I use 50 draws.

                        Raven62's avatar - binary
                        New Jersey
                        United States
                        Member #17843
                        June 28, 2005
                        49813 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: July 1, 2006, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

                        I go back 120 draws since my main lottery software at the moment, Lotto Sorcerer allow 120 draws as maximum for a 6/48 with 2 bonus numbers.

                        At the moment I am testing this software both for real and with back testing. To get a good chance at winning divisions on this software it seems to be necessary to use 16-18++ number wheels. Won a 5th division with the program this week with a 18 number wheel with 42 combinations. Not good enough of course, but I hope for some 4th division wins during the summer.

                        For my own systems still under development in the Excel lab I use 50 draws.

                        As far as Lotto Sorcerer is concerned, the top
                        third hottest numbers are considered hot; the bottom third
                        numbers are considered cold; and the remainder are considered
                        "non-hot/non-cold".

                        Lotto Sorcerer is unique in that it tests every possible combination of
                        strategy to determine the best strategy to use. This process would have
                        been considered impractical just a few years ago, but today's personal
                        computers are capable of computational speeds that once were possible
                        only with supercomputers. Lotto Sorcerer also takes advantage of the
                        latest in neural networking techniques to identify the best strategy to
                        use.


                          Avatar

                          United States
                          Member #20470
                          August 18, 2005
                          221 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: July 1, 2006, 6:55 pm - IP Logged

                          Smile  thank you for the replys. i did not think i would  get this many. iam going  to save this in my favorites.  there are so much to read here onlottery post.

                            guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                            United States
                            Member #41383
                            June 16, 2006
                            1969 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: July 2, 2006, 12:50 am - IP Logged

                            I go back to only as far as the last wholesale ball set change.

                             

                            With Powerball, they use 4 totally different sets of white balls, and 4 totally different sets of red balls.

                            They use one of the four sets for every evening of drawings, but they do not announce which set or machine beforehand. 

                            To me, it makes no sense to go back any further than the last ball change.

                             

                            For an example, a few sets ago, Powerball #9 hit 6 times, then they changed sets, and it didn't hit even once, and they changed ball sets again 8 months after that, and it has not hit in that set, either. It has not hit since 4/23/2005.   Then again, PB #40 has not hit since 10/23/2004........... 

                              BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
                              Dump Water Florida
                              United States
                              Member #380
                              June 5, 2002
                              3104 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: July 2, 2006, 1:46 am - IP Logged

                              You never go further back then the last time they replaced all the ballsets with new ones.  They usually do this every two to four years depending on game and how often it draws.  Same goes when they change the size of the game, unless you can get solid information they added balls without replacing the ballsets.  Most lottery software want you to use between 10 and 100 past draws, you work out what works best because every game is different.

                              BobP