New Mexico United States
Member #12,305
March 10, 2005
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when picking out numbers how far does one go back, 10 or 20 or 50 games ? i have not found any yet.
Morning to you.
I hope you get a lot of response to this question. There's a wide body of viewpoints.
I've tried a lot of different approaches, but none have gone back some specific number of draws. I use times and events of the past, lunar and various others, in trying to make picks.
Some worked well, others less so. None, as yet, have proven to be the key I'm looking for, the be all and end all.
New Jersey United States
Member #17,842
June 28, 2005
180,983 Posts
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when picking out numbers how far does one go back, 10 or 20 or 50 games ? i have not found any yet.
In random drawings, all numbers should be drawn an equal number of times. For example, if you have a lottery consisting of a pool of 48 numbers, and six numbers are picked from each drawing, then after 80 drawings every number should have been picked ten times: (6x80/48=10). If a number has been picked more than ten times, that number is said to be a "hot" number. A number picked less than ten times is said to be a "cold" number. In a true random drawing, the long-run odds of a cold number being drawn should actually increase, since it is overdue to be drawn.
Some schools of statistics theory say that odds of an event occurring does not increase or decrease based on prior events... that the "lottery balls have no memory". Note that this is only a theory, and theories are, by definition, unproven.
But the "Theory of Unequal Distribution" and Barstow's "Law of Diminishing Probability", no less valid theories, hold that the life expectancy of any number run becomes progressively shorter as the number run grows longer. For example, in a 50-50 random event, such as flipping a coin, the odds of getting four heads in a row actually will occur once every 2^4 or 16 series of four coin tosses (or 6.25% of the time); the odds of getting five heads in a row will occur once every 2^5 or 32 series of five tosses (3.125% of the time). So the odds of getting a "tails" increase with the length of run of "heads". This is the importance of tracking "cold" or "overdue" numbers.
In a drawing that is "weighted", that is, some influence is effecting the outcome, hot numbers rule.
Although state lotteries try to be pure random events, there are still factors that can cause certain numbers to be drawn more often than others. Does the lottery machine always start with the balls in a sorted order? Does the increased amount of ink on some balls have an effect? After all, the ink used to print the number "38" is considerable more that the ink that is printed a "1". Are the balls of equal diameter? Probably not; it would be difficult to keep the manufacturing process below .005 inch (.127 mm) variance in the thickness of the balls.
So what strategy should you follow? Should you choose from a pool of all cold numbers? All hot numbers? A mixture? If so, what mixture? One hot, one cold, the rest non-hot/non-cold? As you can imagine, there are many combinations of strategies to choose from.
Are you making reference to any particular Type of Game? (ie: Pick3, Pick4, Pick5, Pick6)
United States
Member #20,469
August 18, 2005
221 Posts
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hi , well i try to play pick 3, and ky. cashball, some times powerball. i really dont like powerball because of the odds are so greate . well i all so play a mix of even odd numbers when comes to hot and cold i am at a lost. thank you for answers.
NASHVILLE, TENN United States
Member #33,371
February 20, 2006
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For a Pick 5 game with 37,38,39, or 40 numbers, I go back 40 draws. For a P5 game with 30 or so numbers, I go back 30. Of course, this "going back" is solely for the purpose of determining frequency within that specific time frame.
And frequency will determine the hot and cold numbers for my "system". I have discovered, however, that, in going back, doubling the number of draws gives me a differenct set of hot/cold numbers.
I have therefore concluded that Quick Picks are the way to go. LOL
Zeta Reticuli Star System United States
Member #30,469
January 17, 2006
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I'm not sure about how far back you should go (I'm assuming you're talking about back-testing, or spotting trends- "due" numbers, etc...) but I am sure about if you go back far enough you'll reach a point where every number has hit just about an equal number of times.
For example, 1 may not hit as the Mega-Millions or Powerball number for months, and then hit three times in a row, or five draws out of six or so. It all balances out over time if you give it enough time.
When Mega Millions expanded the matrix, the added on numbers were hitting an ordinate amount of times over what they should have been.
Norway
Member #9,517
December 10, 2004
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I go back 120 draws since my main lottery software at the moment, Lotto Sorcerer allow 120 draws as maximum for a 6/48 with 2 bonus numbers.
At the moment I am testing this software both for real and with back testing. To get a good chance at winning divisions on this software it seems to be necessary to use 16-18++ number wheels. Won a 5th division with the program this week with a 18 number wheel with 42 combinations. Not good enough of course, but I hope for some 4th division wins during the summer.
For my own systems still under development in the Excel lab I use 50 draws.
New Jersey United States
Member #17,842
June 28, 2005
180,983 Posts
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I go back 120 draws since my main lottery software at the moment, Lotto Sorcerer allow 120 draws as maximum for a 6/48 with 2 bonus numbers.
At the moment I am testing this software both for real and with back testing. To get a good chance at winning divisions on this software it seems to be necessary to use 16-18++ number wheels. Won a 5th division with the program this week with a 18 number wheel with 42 combinations. Not good enough of course, but I hope for some 4th division wins during the summer.
For my own systems still under development in the Excel lab I use 50 draws.
As far as Lotto Sorcerer is concerned, the top third hottest numbers are considered hot; the bottom third numbers are considered cold; and the remainder are considered "non-hot/non-cold".
Lotto Sorcerer is unique in that it tests every possible combination of strategy to determine the best strategy to use. This process would have been considered impractical just a few years ago, but today's personal computers are capable of computational speeds that once were possible only with supercomputers. Lotto Sorcerer also takes advantage of the latest in neural networking techniques to identify the best strategy to use.
United States
Member #20,469
August 18, 2005
221 Posts
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thank you for the replys. i did not think i would get this many. iam going to save this in my favorites. there are so much to read here onlottery post.
United States
Member #41,382
June 16, 2006
1,969 Posts
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I go back to only as far as the last wholesale ball set change.
With Powerball, they use 4 totally different sets of white balls, and 4 totally different sets of red balls.
They use one of the four sets for every evening of drawings, but they do not announce which set or machine beforehand.
To me, it makes no sense to go back any further than the last ball change.
For an example, a few sets ago, Powerball #9 hit 6 times, then they changed sets, and it didn't hit even once, and they changed ball sets again 8 months after that, and it has not hit in that set, either. It has not hit since 4/23/2005. Then again, PB #40 has not hit since 10/23/2004...........
Dump Water Florida United States
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June 5, 2002
3,580 Posts
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You never go further back then the last time they replaced all the ballsets with new ones. They usually do this every two to four years depending on game and how often it draws. Same goes when they change the size of the game, unless you can get solid information they added balls without replacing the ballsets. Most lottery software want you to use between 10 and 100 past draws, you work out what works best because every game is different.