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Probability of a Canadian 6/49 rollover

Topic closed. 1 reply. Last post 11 years ago by Just6ntlc.

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dvdiva's avatar - 8ball

United States
Member #2338
September 17, 2003
2063 Posts
Offline
Posted: July 8, 2006, 12:07 am - IP Logged

Need help figuring out what the probability of a rollover on the Canadian 6/49 game is at the 20 million level. I'm guessing that it won't roll over anyways and they won't bother doing a bonus draw if someone wins. 

Its a 6/49 game. Odds are 1:13,983,816. Cost per ticket is $2 for one line of play so the sales would have to be halved to give the cost as $1/play as in most US games.

I figure the most likely  sales for this Saturday (prize is $21 Million) is $29 Million. Since this is over what double the odds are I'm curious what the possibility of a rollover is since it's not zero but has to be very low.

Further stats can be found at www.lotterycanada.com since they list the jackpot and the sales numbers.

 

6/7/2006   Sales:  $35.7 Million   Prize:  $28   Million

6/3/2006   Sales:  $24.4 Million   Prize:  $19.7 Million

4/8/2006   Sales:  $28.5 Million    Prize:  $21.8 Million

1/21/2006  Sales:  $29    Million    Prize:  $22.2 Million


    United States
    Member #16612
    June 2, 2005
    3493 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: July 8, 2006, 12:01 pm - IP Logged

    I think the probability of winning the jackpot is around 50% dvidva by my estimate.