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The Devil's Advocate

Topic closed. 41 replies. Last post 10 years ago by GASMETERGUY.

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JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

United States
Member #5599
July 13, 2004
1184 Posts
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Posted: July 17, 2006, 12:09 pm - IP Logged

What follows is to promote discussion. It doesn't mean I believe it.

 

The Pediction board on this site is a good way to get your hard work stolen by others.

The Prediction board on this site may reduce your winnings because someone used you numbers.

The prediction board on this site does not reflect if your beating expection when it comes to replays.

The prediction board on this site to not reflect your true winnings and thus does not reflect your true dollars won to dollars bet ratio.

The prediction board on this site is for people to lazy to track their own performance.

The prediction board on this site unfairly rewards people, via a top rating, who win big and never post again.

The prediction board on this site is nothing more than a vehicle to get people to reveal their winning system.

And so on...

One note, it is the only prediction board I know of on the web. And that alone gives it merit. And the hard work that hs already been put into it is appreciated.

Any opinions??

You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

    JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

    United States
    Member #5599
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    Posted: July 17, 2006, 12:18 pm - IP Logged

    Therefore, the only purpose of the prediction board is for your personnal gratification through potentially costly recognition.

    Any opinions yet.

    You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

    Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

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      HOUSTON
      United States
      Member #1625
      June 7, 2003
      1089 Posts
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      Posted: July 17, 2006, 12:25 pm - IP Logged

      The prediction board does not give you the ability to diversify your bets and certainly doesn't reflect the online winnings possible.  It is otherwise a great tool to help track your performance.  It helps some look better than they should because some predictors list numbers in numeric order looking more like their predictions should just be box plays, then if it happens to hit in that order, then they get credited for a straight hit.

      It is a vehicle to assist yourself and others to compare and contrast numbers chosen; systems themselves are not necessarily revealed on the prediction page.  We're here to help each other and the prediction page is just another way to do that.

      The top predictors should probably require a minimum number of bets to qualify for the list.

      The prediction page is great, it just needs some enhancements to better reflect reality and the users real betting intentions.

      Only those who attempt the absurd can achieve the impossible.

        Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
        New York, NY
        United States
        Member #39471
        May 16, 2006
        2696 Posts
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        Posted: July 17, 2006, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

        You forgot this one

        The prediction board is the place for clever (devilish) players to post bad numbers to sucker unsophisticated players inbto playing losing numbers so they have less to share the kitty with (more applicable to the Lotto, Mega and Pick 5, 6 and 10 games).

         

         

         

         

        $$$

          JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

          United States
          Member #5599
          July 13, 2004
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          Posted: July 17, 2006, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

          Yes, there are a few I didn't mention..

            Like not being able to reset or restart from scratch when you want to measure a new system.

           I'll leave the rest for others to say.

          You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

          Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

            Avatar
            New Mexico
            United States
            Member #12305
            March 10, 2005
            2984 Posts
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            Posted: July 17, 2006, 12:55 pm - IP Logged

            What follows is to promote discussion. It doesn't mean I believe it.

             

            The Pediction board on this site is a good way to get your hard work stolen by others.

            The Prediction board on this site may reduce your winnings because someone used you numbers.

            The prediction board on this site does not reflect if your beating expection when it comes to replays.

            The prediction board on this site to not reflect your true winnings and thus does not reflect your true dollars won to dollars bet ratio.

            The prediction board on this site is for people to lazy to track their own performance.

            The prediction board on this site unfairly rewards people, via a top rating, who win big and never post again.

            The prediction board on this site is nothing more than a vehicle to get people to reveal their winning system.

            And so on...

            One note, it is the only prediction board I know of on the web. And that alone gives it merit. And the hard work that hs already been put into it is appreciated.

            Any opinions??

            The Pediction board on this site is a good way to get your hard work stolen by others.

             What's posted on the prediction board is public, for public viewing.  The word, stolen  in this context does violence to the meaning of the concept of theft.  Work posted on the prediction board might be considered a gift, a sharing, an unwise exposure, a meaningless gesture.  Once predictions are posted by a member the word stolen  cannot apply in any context.

             The Prediction board on this site may reduce your winnings because someone used you numbers.

             Unlikely in the extreme.  The best predictors on this site are and have-been historically on a win/lose roller-coaster ride.  There's no evidence predictions on the board are sufficiently, or consistently good enough to be worth buying tickets for.

            The prediction board on this site does not reflect if your beating expection when it comes to replays.

             In the event a method, or system is developed by an LP member and used on the board, and it's sufficiently capable of providing a positive win/loss sequence, there is no reason to suppose it won't reflect whatever's true.  The concepts of fairness and unfairness have no meaning in this context.

            The prediction board on this site to not reflect your true winnings and thus does not reflect your true dollars won to dollars bet ratio.

            Certainly true.

            The prediction board on this site is for people to lazy to track their own performance.

             Premium Members pay for the privilege of having use of the prediction board to track their performance.  Computers are for people who are too lazy to use a pencil and paper.

            The prediction board on this site unfairly rewards people, via a top rating, who win big and never post again.

             In what sense do the words,  unfairly  and  rewards  apply to the prediction board?  The prediction board is a tool.  How can a tool be used unfairly?  Members who use the tool and gain whatever benefits in knowledge as can be derived from the use of it are certainly rewarded by if they learn something from it.  Otherwise, there are no rewards, except amusement.

            The prediction board on this site is nothing more than a vehicle to get people to reveal their winning system. 

             The only winning system being revealed, or tested on the prediction board that anyone's admitting to is Expert Lotto.  It's for sale, and no doubt the owners are happy to have their system revealed.

             

            Evidently the folks who've posted to this thread thus far see the prediction board as something other  than a tool for testing and experimenting.

            Which, given the history of lousy predictions all of us have lovingly demonstrated, is patently absurd.

            Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

            It's about number behavior.

            Egos don't count.

             

            Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

             

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
              United States
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              January 17, 2006
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              Posted: July 17, 2006, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

               JKing said:

              The Pediction board on this site is a good way to get your hard work stolen by others.

               I would think that posting predictions makes them "public domain". If someone didn't want their predictions "used", why would they possibly post them?

               If someone posts predictions, especially if they have shown to have made some correct ones, they'd have to realize that posting them is inviting others to play them.

              /////////////////////////////////////////

               I do wonder about some posts I've seen like this, though:

              Someone posts: Illinois Mid-day Pick 3 for July 17:

              206 306 451 203 617

              The drawing is made and let's say the drawn number is

              678

              Then someone replies to that prediction,

              Hey, good job! 

              Either they're just being sarcastic, or......What? 

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                New Mexico
                United States
                Member #12305
                March 10, 2005
                2984 Posts
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                Posted: July 17, 2006, 1:13 pm - IP Logged

                Therefore, the only purpose of the prediction board is for your personnal gratification through potentially costly recognition.

                Any opinions yet.

                After reflecting a bit on the series of questions and the perspective represented there I realized it was slanted and limited by the fact you're an unpaying member.  You're taking the free ride, and it makes sense you'd see tools and priviliges unavailable to you as 'unfair' and the people who use them as 'lazy'.

                Likely you'd wish the limitations on free ride membership privileges expanded, or wish them to be removed from availability to those who are paying their own way.

                "Fair" tends to have a way of sneaking into the language of those who are out for a free lunch.  But you probably won't find it inside the thinking sphere of those who are paying.

                J

                Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                It's about number behavior.

                Egos don't count.

                 

                Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                 

                  Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                  New York, NY
                  United States
                  Member #39471
                  May 16, 2006
                  2696 Posts
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                  Posted: July 17, 2006, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

                  You forgot this one

                  The prediction board is the place for clever (devilish) players to post bad numbers to sucker unsophisticated players inbto playing losing numbers so they have less to share the kitty with (more applicable to the Lotto, Mega and Pick 5, 6 and 10 games).

                   

                   

                   

                   

                  of course all this was said tongue-in-cheek. I don't truly believe anyone sane would do that.

                  $$$

                    Avatar
                    New Mexico
                    United States
                    Member #12305
                    March 10, 2005
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                    Posted: July 17, 2006, 1:29 pm - IP Logged

                    Since this thread is about the prediction board, it seems appropriate to add something I've said many times:

                    For paying members who wish to use the prediction board as a tool for testing methods and systems, a Premium Member option to select not to have those (tests) predictions available for public view would be a major improvement and enhancement to this site.

                    Similarly, the option to have the entire prediction statistics history remain private would also be desireable.

                    I have no interest, nor, I suspect, have many people who use the prediction board, in comparing myself and my success/failure rate to that of others here.  The only comparison I consider valid and useful involves my own hit ratios and wager/win statistics and records.

                    On the other hand, it can be a fun game and conversation stimulant, given the fact it's all public.

                    J

                    Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                    It's about number behavior.

                    Egos don't count.

                     

                    Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                     

                      Avatar
                      New Mexico
                      United States
                      Member #12305
                      March 10, 2005
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                      Posted: July 17, 2006, 3:18 pm - IP Logged

                      I've never seen a statement of intent by Todd concerning the prediction board, other than this one:

                      Welcome to the Lottery Post Prediction Page!

                      This is the place where Lottery Post members can post their lottery predictions, and see other members' predictions.

                      The Prediction pages are designed to provide a controlled environment to ensure that:

                      • All predictions are posted prior to the drawings
                      • All numbers are validated to make sure they are within the game's number pool, and the correct amount of numbers

                      Only Lottery Post members can post predictions, although anyone can view the predictions.  Your Lottery Post membership level determines how many numbers you can post per game per drawing: Standard members can post 10, Gold members can post 25, and Platinum members can post 50.

                      After each drawing, predictions are matched against the actual drawing results, so you can track your predicting accuracy, as well as that of the other members.

                      And this

                       

                      Expanded Predictions Limit

                      • Gold Members:25 per game/drawing
                      • Platinum Members:50 per game/drawing
                      • Description:

                        With your upgraded membership, you have the freedom to post a greater number of prediction picks.  The number of picks refers to the number of predictions you can post for each drawing of each lottery game.  The increased limit opens the possibility of utilizing a wider variety of prediction methods.

                      There used to be a blurb on the Top 10 Predictor statistics page that pointed out "Lottery prediction is not an exact science", but I guess it's been removed.

                      Too bad.  I always got a big laugh out of that word 'exact'.

                       

                      Seriously, though. 

                      Can you imagine someone buying lottery tickets based on predictions provided by anyone here (with the exception a handfull of pick 4 predictors with longterm positive wager/win records?

                      Okay.  I'll admit it.  I did.  Not from the predictions page where the person spitting out numbers had a record I could examine.

                      No.  I'm stupid. 

                      I make no bones about it.  I lost around $200 betting pick 3s online.  Numbers provided the the previous edition of Lottery Queen.  Lottery Koran or some such thing.

                      I also voted for Richard Nixon, once.  Gerald Ford.  Ronald Reagan (more than once).  After that I gave up voting, same as after I lost a sufficient amount of money online, I gave up believing in lottery number demigogues.

                      Jack

                      Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                      It's about number behavior.

                      Egos don't count.

                       

                      Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                       

                        Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                        FEMA Region V Camp #21
                        United States
                        Member #520
                        July 27, 2002
                        5699 Posts
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                        Posted: July 17, 2006, 3:28 pm - IP Logged

                        What follows is to promote discussion. It doesn't mean I believe it.

                         

                        The Pediction board on this site is a good way to get your hard work stolen by others.

                        The Prediction board on this site may reduce your winnings because someone used you numbers.

                        The prediction board on this site does not reflect if your beating expection when it comes to replays.

                        The prediction board on this site to not reflect your true winnings and thus does not reflect your true dollars won to dollars bet ratio.

                        The prediction board on this site is for people to lazy to track their own performance.

                        The prediction board on this site unfairly rewards people, via a top rating, who win big and never post again.

                        The prediction board on this site is nothing more than a vehicle to get people to reveal their winning system.

                        And so on...

                        One note, it is the only prediction board I know of on the web. And that alone gives it merit. And the hard work that hs already been put into it is appreciated.

                        Any opinions??

                        Some people play their pick 3 numbers in ascending order so they can get straight hits without fumbling and guessing what the order of the number will be. There are six combinations of an unmatched pick 3 number. One out of six times on average it will be in ascending order. In a doubles draw, it's one out of every three hits. Show me a "system" that can make this same guarantee for straight hits.

                        The prediction board should be considered as a fake lottery game. It is for our pleasure to play that game. This fake game is run fairly and all LP members have the opportunity to play this game any way they want. We all play this game by the same rules. I don't see how it could be considered unfair.

                        Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                          Avatar
                          New Mexico
                          United States
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                          March 10, 2005
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                          Posted: July 17, 2006, 3:43 pm - IP Logged

                          Seriously, though. 

                          Can you imagine someone buying lottery tickets based on predictions provided by anyone here (with the exception a handfull of pick 4 predictors with longterm positive wager/win records?

                          Okay.  I'll admit it.  I did.  Not from the predictions page where the person spitting out numbers had a record I could examine.

                          No.  I'm stupid. 

                          I make no bones about it.  I lost around $200 betting pick 3s online.  Numbers provided the the previous edition of Lottery Queen.  Lottery Koran or some such thing.

                          I also voted for Richard Nixon, once.  Gerald FordRonald Reagan (more than once). 

                          After that I gave up voting, same as after I lost a sufficient amount of money online, I gave up believing in lottery number demigogues.

                          From my perspective that's the only downside, the only danger of the prediction board. 

                          Stupid people betting on numbers provided by other stupid people. 

                          But they don't have to go to the prediction board for that.  They don't have to go past the Lottery Discussion forum.

                          Jack

                          Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                          It's about number behavior.

                          Egos don't count.

                           

                          Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                           

                            Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                            FEMA Region V Camp #21
                            United States
                            Member #520
                            July 27, 2002
                            5699 Posts
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                            Posted: July 17, 2006, 3:49 pm - IP Logged

                            That is the most valuble aspect of the prediction board. Predictions are tabulated and can be analyzed for what they're worth. You don't get that from forum predictions.

                            Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                              Fibonacci's avatar - Lottery-050.jpg
                              New York, NY
                              United States
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                              May 16, 2006
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                              Posted: July 17, 2006, 3:51 pm - IP Logged

                              It's important to know the difference between an advocate and the client Himself. Mad

                              $$$