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Do you really think you have better odds?

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 10 years ago by rundown99.

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Posted: July 27, 2006, 8:20 pm - IP Logged

do you think you have better odds of winning the lottery if you use a system, or do you think it's all luck.  do you think it's better to pick your own numbers or just get QP's?  even if you use a sysyem your odds really don't go down that much.

    JAP69's avatar - alas
    South Carolina
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    Posted: July 27, 2006, 8:35 pm - IP Logged

    Have a bettter chance with a system.

    Pick my own numbers using a system.

    Lottery draws are random but do have odds of probability.

     

    What?

    WHATT

      Amazing Grace's avatar - lion
      rainbow lake
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      Posted: July 27, 2006, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

      Heres the diff.

      Quick picks, = Gambling

      Systems= Smart betting


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        Posted: July 27, 2006, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

        I dont think systems work at all. It is just a matter of statistics. Your much more likely to win if you choose numbers combinations that have never been drawn before. If you are able to get a  database of all the numbers ever drawn choose the ones that have not been drawn yet.

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
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          Posted: July 27, 2006, 10:15 pm - IP Logged

          I dont think systems work at all. It is just a matter of statistics. Your much more likely to win if you choose numbers combinations that have never been drawn before. If you are able to get a  database of all the numbers ever drawn choose the ones that have not been drawn yet.

          Having a data base of past drawings and picking combinations that haven't come up is a system.  Which lottery do you play? 

          Even if you don't have a data base, your odds of picking a past winner is just a little better than your odds of picking a future winner.

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            Amazing Grace's avatar - lion
            rainbow lake
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            Posted: July 27, 2006, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

            Your right "It is just a matter of statistics"

            Western Canada 2 years ago number never drawn for over 5 years 622

            today you still wait.

            systems= smart betting.

              Badger's avatar - adu50016 NorthAmericanBadger.jpg
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              Posted: July 27, 2006, 10:26 pm - IP Logged

              do you think you have better odds of winning the lottery if you use a system, or do you think it's all luck.  do you think it's better to pick your own numbers or just get QP's?  even if you use a sysyem your odds really don't go down that much.

              Depends... if you're talking about the jackpot games (like Powerball) I don't think systems help much. The odds are just too high. You can spend say $200 on one drawing and you don't reduce your odds to anything sane. May as well just pick numbers out of the air....unless you are just looking to get a hit on the lower tier prizes.

              If you're talking the Daily Games (Pick 3 and 4) then you are starting with much lower odds. Systems and methods help reduce those odds. Instead of one in a million, you may be at one in a few hundred. Of course, the prizes you would win are nothing you can retire on....

              ============

              How can you tell if a politician is lying?

              Answer: His lips are moving.

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                Posted: July 27, 2006, 10:53 pm - IP Logged

                I dont think systems work at all. It is just a matter of statistics. Your much more likely to win if you choose numbers combinations that have never been drawn before. If you are able to get a  database of all the numbers ever drawn choose the ones that have not been drawn yet.

                You might take a tour day-by-day through the prediction - yesterdays winners for the last couple of weeks, looking at everything other than pick 3 and pick 4.

                While you're examining it, bear in mind that a single 3 of 5 on a 5/34 game has odds against one happening of 1:74.  Everything you see that's 3 of 5 or 4 of 6 has at least those odds against it happening a single time, each ticket.

                Also bear in mind that every series of hits you see countless times each day involves a maximum of 50 combinations per member per lottery. 

                After you've examined the evidence and pondered it a bit maybe you can explain to all those people getting several 4 of 5s per draw, or 4 and 5 of 6s, how it's all just statistics.

                Explain it to bellyache.  Explain it to RJOH.  Explain it to RickG.  Explain it to PaddawanLotto.  Explain it to tntea.  Explain it to LottoMike.

                Explain it, for that matter, to me.

                All of us, I'd imagine, have a lot to learn from you about how lotteries work and how random numbers work.

                Jack

                Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

                It's about number behavior.

                Egos don't count.

                 

                Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

                 

                  justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                  Wandering Aimlessly
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                  Posted: July 28, 2006, 12:11 am - IP Logged

                  I realize it only takes one ticket, but my system has always been the more you play, the more chances you have to win. Most systems I read about suggest many combinations for the same play, so that would require lots of dough every week. So if it works, great. If it doesn't, there goes the grocery money. When I was in Vegas many years ago, a regular Blackjack player told me to double my bet the next hand after I lost. I suppose if you had unlimited money to gamble, eventually you might get your money back, but where does it stop? Yesterday when I was buying my Wed lottery tickets the cashier said to the woman in front of me "You won $50." I thought "Gee, she's lucky." When the woman left the cashier told me she had spent a lot more than $50. So there ya go. Anyway, IMHO (and it's very humble) systems work if you bet more than a few dollars every day. I don't think a system is very useful for an occasional bet or if you only play a few combinations.

                  Regarding the 5 and 6 number games, I follow the press releases almost everyday here and, although you once commented that FL games aren't worth playing, most jackpots have been won with QPs.  Out of 4 Fantasy 5 winners 7/26, 3 were QPs.  Both Fantasy 5 winners 7/25 were QPs. 7/25 MegaMoney ($1.4M) was won by a QP.  $18M Lotto won June 21 was a QP. The $10M jackpot before that on June 3 was won with a QP.  The $11M jackpot winner May 13 was a QP.  On 4/29 2 people split $12M and both tickets were QPs. The huge $82M jackpot before that on 4/19 was won by 2 people - both won with QPs. The last winner before that on Mar 4 won $21M with a QP. Feb 11 $15M jackpot was won by 2 people, both QPs. On Jan 21 $50M (pretty nice!) was won by one player using a QP.  $46M jackpot was won 12/21 by one QP.

                  People can argue that it's because so many QPs are sold, but if I win $25M on Saturday, opinions, systems and statistics won't matter to me at all. That said, I always play the same 3 combinations Wed & Sat which are personal numbers, although it's only because I'm too crazy to stop, not because I think I've got the magic potion.

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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                    Posted: July 28, 2006, 12:52 am - IP Logged


                    If you get the e-mails with the daily winners, (such as Illinois Little Lotto),  it sure seems there are more QP winners than anything else.

                    That being the case, I'd say the luck factor certainly means a lot.

                    I always look at the list of winners and say, "Where's the justice?" and my wife laughs and says, "There's no justice in lotto."

                    Green laugh

                      guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

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                      Posted: July 28, 2006, 12:59 am - IP Logged

                      It's funny you ask, because I ask myself these TWO questions all the time:

                       

                      Question 1) Do you think you will ever win the jackpot ?

                      Answer to 1) -   No way. Are you nuts ?  I have no chance in hell.

                       

                      Question 2) Do you think you will ever win the jackpot ?

                      Answer to 2) - Absolutely. Do you think I'd play it if I didn't think I could win it ?

                       

                      Back to my logic:

                      A 'system' you can devise to do many different things, I, for one, will never count on winning the jackpot, but I have (almost) no doubt in my mind you can use a system simply increase your odds of winning by decreasing the odds of picking 'bad' numbers, and we can discuss all day long on what a person thinks a 'bad' number is.   Would you play 1-2-3-4-5 ?   Why not ?     Would you play 51-52-53-54-55 ?  Why not ?   TODAY, would you play 1-7-21-29-46 ?   Why or why not ?   TODAY would you play 5-10-17-24-43 ?  Why or why not ?

                      Oh - I have no doubt that I will hit a pick 5 ($200,000) one of these days, but the jackpot itself, I'm not counting on. 

                      You see, I use a 'system' to help me ELIMINATE numbers, not necessarily pick 'winning' numbers. I FIRMLY believe a 'system' can help you bag 3 or 4 of the 5 numbers, but the 5th number, that's a tough one, that's the number that hits that is usually on NOBODY'S radar screen, so we trust LUCK for that one, or we wheel about 8 numbers in with our solid 4 we picked with our system. 

                       

                      1-7-21-29-46 are all the longest shots available for 7/29

                      5-10-17-24-43 are winners from 7/26, what are the odds of all of them repeating ?

                      This is what I mean by eliminating numbers, I may pick one longshot number, but not 5, and I may pick one number from 7/26, but not all 5 together.

                       

                      That's part of my 'system'. 


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                        Posted: July 28, 2006, 8:12 am - IP Logged

                        This is exactly what I am saying. it is extremely rare for a random number generator to pick 1-2-3-4-5. The human mind does not work that way and the authorities know this. 7-12-34-39-50 numbers is how the mind works but, the numbers are spread out and not in consecutive order. It really frustrates me when I look at the california lottery drawings the jacpot drawings are alwys like 34-35-37-46-50 or 14-15-20-21-52 or 1-2-6-37-39 bullcrap. A couple of numbers are in consecutive order and I think this is just a total ripoff. No one are going to pick these numbers. It is just a system to raise the jackpot and get a lot more players in the game on the next round. Of course you may get a couple or few numbers but never all six in that same combination.

                          MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

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                          Posted: July 28, 2006, 10:33 am - IP Logged

                          I like to believe I got a better chance.
                          I have more or less given up hoping for a jackpot, but still deliver the combinations just in case...

                          I think it's more important to look for or invent a system which could come up with 3rd, 4th and 5th divisions more often. And the fewer combinations used, the better.

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                            Posted: July 28, 2006, 1:24 pm - IP Logged

                            This is exactly what I am saying. it is extremely rare for a random number generator to pick 1-2-3-4-5. The human mind does not work that way and the authorities know this. 7-12-34-39-50 numbers is how the mind works but, the numbers are spread out and not in consecutive order. It really frustrates me when I look at the california lottery drawings the jacpot drawings are alwys like 34-35-37-46-50 or 14-15-20-21-52 or 1-2-6-37-39 bullcrap. A couple of numbers are in consecutive order and I think this is just a total ripoff. No one are going to pick these numbers. It is just a system to raise the jackpot and get a lot more players in the game on the next round. Of course you may get a couple or few numbers but never all six in that same combination.

                            Of course drawing 1-2-3-4-5 is extremely rare. It's only one combination out of millions, just like 7-12-34-39-50. The reason the human mind doesn't work that way is that most people don't understand probability and therefore think that such combinations are somehow less likely than other combinations. OTOH, huge numbers of people play consecutive numbers, or a diagonal pattern starting from one corner of the play slip.

                            As far as drawings with numbers that are consecutive or close together, that should also be expected by anyone who bothers to consider the probability. With 56 numbers in MM, if there are no numbers that are consecutive or +/- 2 (such as 21, 23 or 46, 48)  with the first 4 numbers drawn there will usually be 16 numbers left that will be +/- 1 or 2 from one of the numbers already drawn (If  1, 2, 55 or 56 have been drawn there may be only 12 numbers), and 52 numbers left to choose from.That means the probability that the last ball will be close to one of the previous numbers is usually 16 in 52, or about 30%.  When you figure that numbers 2 through 4 also have a chance to be close to one of the previous numbers you should expect it to happen in more than half of the drawings.

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                              Posted: July 28, 2006, 1:31 pm - IP Logged

                              It's funny you ask, because I ask myself these TWO questions all the time:

                               

                              Question 1) Do you think you will ever win the jackpot ?

                              Answer to 1) -   No way. Are you nuts ?  I have no chance in hell.

                               

                              Question 2) Do you think you will ever win the jackpot ?

                              Answer to 2) - Absolutely. Do you think I'd play it if I didn't think I could win it ?

                               

                              Back to my logic:

                              A 'system' you can devise to do many different things, I, for one, will never count on winning the jackpot, but I have (almost) no doubt in my mind you can use a system simply increase your odds of winning by decreasing the odds of picking 'bad' numbers, and we can discuss all day long on what a person thinks a 'bad' number is.   Would you play 1-2-3-4-5 ?   Why not ?     Would you play 51-52-53-54-55 ?  Why not ?   TODAY, would you play 1-7-21-29-46 ?   Why or why not ?   TODAY would you play 5-10-17-24-43 ?  Why or why not ?

                              Oh - I have no doubt that I will hit a pick 5 ($200,000) one of these days, but the jackpot itself, I'm not counting on. 

                              You see, I use a 'system' to help me ELIMINATE numbers, not necessarily pick 'winning' numbers. I FIRMLY believe a 'system' can help you bag 3 or 4 of the 5 numbers, but the 5th number, that's a tough one, that's the number that hits that is usually on NOBODY'S radar screen, so we trust LUCK for that one, or we wheel about 8 numbers in with our solid 4 we picked with our system. 

                               

                              1-7-21-29-46 are all the longest shots available for 7/29

                              5-10-17-24-43 are winners from 7/26, what are the odds of all of them repeating ?

                              This is what I mean by eliminating numbers, I may pick one longshot number, but not 5, and I may pick one number from 7/26, but not all 5 together.

                               

                              That's part of my 'system'. 


                              Since we don't have time to discuss everything about what numbers are bad, perhaps you could explain why "1-7-21-29-46 are all the longest shots available for 7/29" and how much longer a shot they are.

                              As far as the odds of 5-10-17-24-43 repeating, I'd figure it's exactly the same as the odds that they would have been drawn the first time around, assuming the same set of balls is put into the same machine. With a different set of balls in a different machine I'd expect that the probability would be slightly more or slightly less than with the same balls and machine. If somebody thinksthat's wrong I'd be curious to know why.