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Do you really think you have better odds?

Topic closed. 21 replies. Last post 10 years ago by rundown99.

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justxploring's avatar - villiarna
Wandering Aimlessly
United States
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November 5, 2005
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Posted: July 28, 2006, 5:45 pm - IP Logged

This is exactly what I am saying. it is extremely rare for a random number generator to pick 1-2-3-4-5. The human mind does not work that way and the authorities know this. 7-12-34-39-50 numbers is how the mind works but, the numbers are spread out and not in consecutive order. It really frustrates me when I look at the california lottery drawings the jacpot drawings are alwys like 34-35-37-46-50 or 14-15-20-21-52 or 1-2-6-37-39 bullcrap. A couple of numbers are in consecutive order and I think this is just a total ripoff. No one are going to pick these numbers. It is just a system to raise the jackpot and get a lot more players in the game on the next round. Of course you may get a couple or few numbers but never all six in that same combination.

Sometimes when I see combinations like you above mention like 30-37-38-45-51-52  I feel exactly the same way. However, I once printed the draws for the 6/53 Lotto in FL and over the past several years, they are usually spread out following the "pattern" that people like Gail Howard talk about. In my personal opinion, it's not a pattern, but common sense reasoning. That is, that 3 numbers will be between 1-26 and 3 will be between 27-53.  Half will be odd, half will be even. Much of the time, one group (i.e., the teens, 20s, 30s 40s) will be skipped so you'll have 2 numbers in one group like 5-23-24-33-41-50.  OMG, I'm so superstitious that I should never type a number because I'll remember it and want to play it. Maybe that's not superstition, maybe it's insanity. Okay, now I can't come back to this thread. (close eyes, blank out mind)


    United States
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    July 12, 2006
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    Posted: July 28, 2006, 6:10 pm - IP Logged

    Of course drawing 1-2-3-4-5 is extremely rare. It's only one combination out of millions, just like 7-12-34-39-50. The reason the human mind doesn't work that way is that most people don't understand probability and therefore think that such combinations are somehow less likely than other combinations. OTOH, huge numbers of people play consecutive numbers, or a diagonal pattern starting from one corner of the play slip.

    As far as drawings with numbers that are consecutive or close together, that should also be expected by anyone who bothers to consider the probability. With 56 numbers in MM, if there are no numbers that are consecutive or +/- 2 (such as 21, 23 or 46, 48)  with the first 4 numbers drawn there will usually be 16 numbers left that will be +/- 1 or 2 from one of the numbers already drawn (If  1, 2, 55 or 56 have been drawn there may be only 12 numbers), and 52 numbers left to choose from.That means the probability that the last ball will be close to one of the previous numbers is usually 16 in 52, or about 30%.  When you figure that numbers 2 through 4 also have a chance to be close to one of the previous numbers you should expect it to happen in more than half of the drawings.

    I am not talking about little everyday lotteries. I am talking about mega millions were the jackpot can be over $200 millions lets break the numbers down and take a look at this. lets assume  that the following numbers were drawn, 3-4-46-47-50-52. There are a total of 52 numbers to choose from and what I will do here is figure the probability of 2 sets of numbers being in consecutive order.

     

    first number drawn is 3: ------ 1 and 2 are still in the shuffle. The probablilty of 1 or 2 coming up is 2/51  = 4%. So there is a 4% chance that 1 or 2 will come up.

    Second number drawn is 4: ------ 5 is still is the shuffle. The probability of 5 coming up is 1/50 = 2%.

    Third number drawn is 46: ------ 45 and 47 are still in shuffle. The probability of 45 or 47 coming up is 2/49 = 4.1%

    Forth number drawn is 47: ------ 48 is still in shuffle. The probability of 48 coming up is 1/48 = 2%

    Fifth Number drawn is 50: ------ 49 and 51 are still in shuffle. The probablilty of 49 or 51 coming up is 2/47 = 4.2%

    Sixth number drawn is 52: ----- 51 is still in shuffle. The probability of 51 coming up is 1/46 = 2%

     

    The probability of 2 consecutive numbers coming up in any drawing of 6 numbers is: 1 * 1/51 = 2% chance

    The probability of 3 consecutive numbers coming up in any drawing of 6 numbers is: 1 * 1/51 * 2/50 = .08% chance

    The probability of two sets of consecutive numbers coming up (2/51) + (2/49) =  8%

     

    As you can see the probability of 3 consecutive numbers coming up is pretty small. This is why I stay away from lottos that exibit these kind of patterns too often.

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      Posted: July 28, 2006, 6:24 pm - IP Logged

       I get just as big a kick out of trying to figure numbers and trends out as the next person, but It just seems these are relentless:

      (Illinois Little Lotto - 5 /39)

       LITTLE LOTTO PRIZE PAYOUTS FOR THURSDAY, JULY 27, 2006
       
       
       WINNING NUMBERS: 01 - 06 - 24 - 38 - 39
       
       
       PLAYER(S) MATCHING 5 OF 5 NUMBERS
          INCLUDING SUBSCRIPTION WINNERS:        1
       EACH PLAYER WILL RECEIVE:        $830,000.00
       
            WINNING TICKET(S) WERE SOLD AT:
       
            101677    SHELL 159TH ST          (QP)
                  8401 W 159TH ST
                  TINLEY PARK/60477
       

      /////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

       My wife says, "You guys track and cipher and back test all the time, only for the "Lottery Fairy" to be good to someone walking in a store and playing a QP"....

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        NY
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        Posted: July 29, 2006, 1:42 am - IP Logged

        I am not talking about little everyday lotteries. I am talking about mega millions were the jackpot can be over $200 millions lets break the numbers down and take a look at this. lets assume  that the following numbers were drawn, 3-4-46-47-50-52. There are a total of 52 numbers to choose from and what I will do here is figure the probability of 2 sets of numbers being in consecutive order.

         

        first number drawn is 3: ------ 1 and 2 are still in the shuffle. The probablilty of 1 or 2 coming up is 2/51  = 4%. So there is a 4% chance that 1 or 2 will come up.

        Second number drawn is 4: ------ 5 is still is the shuffle. The probability of 5 coming up is 1/50 = 2%.

        Third number drawn is 46: ------ 45 and 47 are still in shuffle. The probability of 45 or 47 coming up is 2/49 = 4.1%

        Forth number drawn is 47: ------ 48 is still in shuffle. The probability of 48 coming up is 1/48 = 2%

        Fifth Number drawn is 50: ------ 49 and 51 are still in shuffle. The probablilty of 49 or 51 coming up is 2/47 = 4.2%

        Sixth number drawn is 52: ----- 51 is still in shuffle. The probability of 51 coming up is 1/46 = 2%

         

        The probability of 2 consecutive numbers coming up in any drawing of 6 numbers is: 1 * 1/51 = 2% chance

        The probability of 3 consecutive numbers coming up in any drawing of 6 numbers is: 1 * 1/51 * 2/50 = .08% chance

        The probability of two sets of consecutive numbers coming up (2/51) + (2/49) =  8%

         

        As you can see the probability of 3 consecutive numbers coming up is pretty small. This is why I stay away from lottos that exibit these kind of patterns too often.


        If you reread the post you'll see that I was talking about megamillions, but the same principle applies to everygame. The only thing that matters is how many numbers are drawn and how many numbers those are chosen from. The size of the jackpot has nothing to do with how the math works.

        Your example with 6 numbers obviously isn't for MM, but  let's stick with them. If you're going to limit things to consecutive numbers I'm assuming you've made a typo in the first statement, and it should be about the probability of 2 or 4 coming up, not 1 or 2. You're right that it will be about 4%.  You're only half right in the next statement.  If the second number drawn is 4 you can get three consecutive numbers by drawing the 5 or the 2.  You repeat that error in your subsequent statements, ignoring the number  that comes before the first of the pair you've used in your example. Unless you're thinking about the bonus number used in some 6 of n games, they don't draw numbers after the sixth, but with the  numbers you've chosen, 49 would also give us another consecutive pair.

        In your next set of statements you've pretty much missed the boat. If there are 52 numbers to choose from, after the first number is drawn there will be 2 chances among the remaining 51 numbers that result in a consecutive pair unless the first number is 1 or 52. To simplify the math I'll just assume that 1 and 52 don't get drawn.  If the first number is 3 either a 2 or a 4 will result in a consecutive pair. That means there would usually be about a 4% chancethat the second number would be consecutive with the first. If only 2 numbers were drawn the chance of consecutive numbers would then be about 4%, but when the third number is drawn there's another chance to get consecutive numbers.  Let's figure the second number drawn is 49. For the third number there will be 50 numbers left, and 4 of them will result in a consecutive pair. The 2 or 4 will still pair with the 3, and 48 or 50 will pair with the 49. 4 chances in 50 means there's an 8% chance that the third number will pair with either the first or second number.  With three numbers drawn if we still don't have a consecutive pair there will be 49 numbers left to choose from and 6 of them will result in a consecutive pair.  6 in 49 is just over a 12% chance that the fourth number will pair with one of the first three. For the fifth number we have 8 of 48, for a 16.67% chance of getting our consecutive pair. If it's a 6 of n game, with the last number we'll have 10 chances in the remaining 47 numbers, which gives us just over a  21% chance.

        Now we know what the chances are for getting a consecutive pair from each of the numbers drawn after the first. We need to combine all of those chances to find out the chances of getting a consecutive pair from any of the numbers drawn after the first. To do that we multiply the chances of not getting a pair from each number drawn. The chance that the second number won't result in a consecutive pair is 100 - 4, or 96%. The chance that the third number won't result in a consecutive pair is 100 - 8, or 92%. Continuing (and rounding to whole numbers) we have  88%, 83% and 79%. Multiplying them together we get  .96 * .92 * .88 * .83 * .79 = .51, or a 51% chance that there won't be a consecutive pair. If there's a 51% chance that there won't be a consecutive pair then there's a 49% chance that there will be a consecutive pair, so we would expect a consecutive pair in half of the drawings. 

          MillionsWanted's avatar - 24Qa6LT

          Norway
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          Posted: July 29, 2006, 9:06 am - IP Logged

          SPAM!

          Very subtle spam, but the syndicate he is speaking about is of course  the one in his signature.

            Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
            Zeta Reticuli Star System
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            Posted: July 29, 2006, 1:13 pm - IP Logged

            Good eye Millions Wanted!

            markie:

            if you play in a sytem i,e syndicate u have better odds 702% better odds

             
            When you play in a syndicate you are also guaranteed to split the jackpot more ways than you ever thought you would. 

              rundown99's avatar - cigar

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              Posted: August 3, 2006, 12:37 am - IP Logged

              I really don't think that there is a guaranteed way to beat the lottery.  I agree with the book Infinite Financial Freedom by Robert Sanford.  I know that a majority of people play quick picks, and therefore a majority of winners won with quick pick.  But think about it.  There are 146,107,962 possible combinations for Powerball.  Only ONE combination can win the jackpot every drawing.  Do you really think that you could possibly get ALL six numbers right using a $49.99 Gail Howard system?  If there was a special pattern between those drawings in which someone could pick the winning numbers, someone would have won that jackpot more than once and that person would have exploited that pattern to his/her benefit.  The only people who win with their numbers use either birthdays or lucky numbers, like from a fortune cookie or they keep playing a certain combination OVER and OVER again.  Which means that they play those same numbers EVERY DRAWING for years and years.  And it was only luck that the numbers PICKED them.  The real test is what you do after you win.  The Oklahoma lottery winner was smart, because he/she formed a trust to claim the prize.  The Oklahoma lottery winner was focusing on the "what you do AFTER you win".

              Smart lottery winners form trust to claim their winnings.  They send an attorney to the lottery headquarters to claim the prize in trust, so that ONLY the name of the trust is revealed.  And they tell NO ONE, especially relatives.

              If you ever win a lottery and you are single, the only person you should ever marry is someone who was truly in love with you BEFORE you won the jackpot!