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Pondering Question...

Topic closed. 9 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Coin Toss.

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Honduras
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August 29, 2005
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Posted: July 29, 2006, 3:37 am - IP Logged

I've been pondering a question for a long time...When you look to see how a hard a lottery is, do you go by its range, or do you go by how many balls are drawn?

Example, if they were two kinds of lotteries, one was a pick5 from 1-30, and the other was a pick5 + pick1 from 1-20 plus bonus ball 1-15, Which one will you say is harder, the pick5 or pick6?I would think that the pick5 + pick1 will be a lot easier because the range 1-20 is so small, compared to the pick5 range 1-30...In a way you can think of the pick5+pick1 as a pick6 because 6 balls are selected and 6 ball you need to match to win, even though is not....Which one will you deem harder?but if you think about the pick5 + pick1 odds are 232,560 while the pick5 1-30 has 142,506 odds..This mean that pick5+pick1 has 90,054 more combinations than the pick5 1-30... I've been curious to know what the majority would think be the hardest one to win.....

 

"..Those eyes....they just dissappeared......"        from movie "Predator 1"..

    TheGameGrl's avatar - character catafly.jpg
    A long and winding road
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    Posted: July 29, 2006, 10:31 am - IP Logged

    Lets hope I'm following your question correctly.

    Firstly, the odds are what they are, its a matter of what system you may use to get the best results for the game.

    I personally consider my odds 50/50. I either win or I don't. The jackpot prize and pay out amounts are my determining factors in whether its worth playing.

     Good luck to you in any game you choose to play!

    ~~Is it true, Is it kind,Is it necessary. ~~~

    pa:888,4445,6132,4444,8008

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: July 29, 2006, 11:06 am - IP Logged

      If you want to know how hard a lottery game is to win, you calculate the odds (1:possible combinations), the one with the most possible combinations is the hardest.  I recently pointed that out in another thread where the players were winning a lot playing the Pick6 WV Cash25.  The Cash25 is a 6/25 game(1:177,100) and winning it is a lot easier than winning a 6/49 game (1:13,983,816).  Most Pick6 (6/44-59) games have jackpots of $1M or more and Cash25 had a jackpot of $25K.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

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        New Mexico
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        Posted: July 29, 2006, 11:28 am - IP Logged

        I've been pondering a question for a long time...When you look to see how a hard a lottery is, do you go by its range, or do you go by how many balls are drawn?

        Example, if they were two kinds of lotteries, one was a pick5 from 1-30, and the other was a pick5 + pick1 from 1-20 plus bonus ball 1-15, Which one will you say is harder, the pick5 or pick6?I would think that the pick5 + pick1 will be a lot easier because the range 1-20 is so small, compared to the pick5 range 1-30...In a way you can think of the pick5+pick1 as a pick6 because 6 balls are selected and 6 ball you need to match to win, even though is not....Which one will you deem harder?but if you think about the pick5 + pick1 odds are 232,560 while the pick5 1-30 has 142,506 odds..This mean that pick5+pick1 has 90,054 more combinations than the pick5 1-30... I've been curious to know what the majority would think be the hardest one to win.....

         

        "..Those eyes....they just dissappeared......"        from movie "Predator 1"..

        Seems to me any 'system' that can get a player into breaking even on every draw so's he/she can try to refine, or play on luck for any fallout is the key.

        For that reason, I believe the games with bonus balls are most vulnerable, or 'easiest', if you prefer that term.  Most will pay back the price of the ticket if the bonus ball is picked, and the bonus ball plus one will make a buck or two, which has a far better potential for allowing more combinations for the larger sets and lower tier prizes.

        Easier, I say, but only easier if a player can find a good approach for narrowing the field within the bonus ball picks successfully and consistently.

        J

        Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

        It's about number behavior.

        Egos don't count.

         

        Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

         

          johnph77's avatar - avatar
          CA
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          Posted: August 3, 2006, 3:34 pm - IP Logged

          5/30 - 142,506 possibilities.
          5/20+1/15 - 232,560 possibilities.

          gl

          l

          Blessed Saint Leibowitz, keep 'em dreamin' down there..... 

          Next week's convention for Psychics and Prognosticators has been cancelled due to unforeseen circumstances.

           =^.^=

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            Posted: August 3, 2006, 4:18 pm - IP Logged

            The really important thing are the payouts, because of the number of combos that you might need to buy in order to win with, the game might not pay enough to even just cover the cost of the combos that you will need to buy so you can win.

            If a game was a 5/30 no bonus ball or a 6/20 no bonus ball, I might want to play the 6/20 game intead, but it all depends on the payouts, if the payouts are too low on the 6/20 game they it might be best to play the 5/30 game, it is not how hard each of these games might be to win, but the cost of winning vesus the $$s won, the question is, "Will there be a profit or not and How much of a profit if any?

            Profit or no profit.

            EXCALIBUR is no more that "Handle" is dead, gone.
            Maybe sometime in the future I might come back as LANTERN again, but maybe not, if I don't come back as LANTERN in the future then I won't come back at all, but as I said there is no more EXCALIBUR.

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              New Mexico
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              Posted: August 3, 2006, 6:18 pm - IP Logged

              I've been pondering a question for a long time...When you look to see how a hard a lottery is, do you go by its range, or do you go by how many balls are drawn?

              Example, if they were two kinds of lotteries, one was a pick5 from 1-30, and the other was a pick5 + pick1 from 1-20 plus bonus ball 1-15, Which one will you say is harder, the pick5 or pick6?I would think that the pick5 + pick1 will be a lot easier because the range 1-20 is so small, compared to the pick5 range 1-30...In a way you can think of the pick5+pick1 as a pick6 because 6 balls are selected and 6 ball you need to match to win, even though is not....Which one will you deem harder?but if you think about the pick5 + pick1 odds are 232,560 while the pick5 1-30 has 142,506 odds..This mean that pick5+pick1 has 90,054 more combinations than the pick5 1-30... I've been curious to know what the majority would think be the hardest one to win.....

               

              "..Those eyes....they just dissappeared......"        from movie "Predator 1"..

              Seems to me the more numbers they draw the easier it gets because there are fewer left among their choices. 

              Pick 3 and pick 4 are impossible.  Pick 6 you have a fighting chance.  Keno 20/70 and 20/80 games are a cakewalk.

              I think that's why they try to encourage people to play pick 3 and pick 4 and stay away from keno and the big jackpot games.  They know they're most vulnerable on those, the more numbers they pull out of the box.

               J

              Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

              It's about number behavior.

              Egos don't count.

               

              Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

               

                justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                Wandering Aimlessly
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                Posted: August 4, 2006, 1:50 am - IP Logged

                "I personally consider my odds 50/50. I either win or I don't.? The GameGrl

                 

                Although it's not the most scientific response, it's also the best!  That's exactly how I look at the odds. Just show me the money! 

                  guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

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                  Posted: August 4, 2006, 2:30 am - IP Logged

                  The really important thing are the payouts, because of the number of combos that you might need to buy in order to win with, the game might not pay enough to even just cover the cost of the combos that you will need to buy so you can win.

                  If a game was a 5/30 no bonus ball or a 6/20 no bonus ball, I might want to play the 6/20 game intead, but it all depends on the payouts, if the payouts are too low on the 6/20 game they it might be best to play the 5/30 game, it is not how hard each of these games might be to win, but the cost of winning vesus the $$s won, the question is, "Will there be a profit or not and How much of a profit if any?

                  Profit or no profit.

                  This is why I play PB in my state as opposed to the state-run Pick 5.

                   

                  State-run Pick 5 pays $75,000 or so for a 49 number game,  but a PB Pick 5 (1-55 numbers) pays $200,000, so I would much rather 

                  take my chances on PB.  Half the time a number from the 50's doesn't hit anyway, so most of the time I largely ignore them altogether.

                  In fact, it's slightly less than half the time. 

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                    Posted: August 4, 2006, 2:31 am - IP Logged

                     pumpi

                    Actually the 5 + 1 games are two lotteries in one. First you've got to "go 5 for 5" on top, then link that into the one right numbetr on the bottom.  

                    Often on the big PB and MM jackpots the PB or MM number is a number that was also in the groupd of five, and most people don't play that way.