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Just a comment on predictions

Topic closed. 10 replies. Last post 10 years ago by RJOh.

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Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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January 17, 2006
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Posted: August 27, 2006, 1:37 pm - IP Logged

Just a comment on predictions, if I may.  

I've been here a few months but yesterday was the first time I took a good look at the predictions page, specifically winners and predictions by state.

OK, this impresses me

predicited 186, 186 drawn.

or eventhis would ompress me: predcited 186 286 486,

186 drawn.

But when I looked at predictions by state I realized that some people predicted up to 50 combinations for the pick 3. Then if one hits it, and it alone gets posted as the pick. 

This is the very same m.o. that some sports services go by (especially NCAA and NFL football). Predict 10 games, take one that comes in and call it your "Five star pick".

I think if snyone jusy looked at winners in the predictions pages and didn't dig a little further they just wouldn't be getting the whole story.

Just my $.02, no flame war or debate intended, just an observation.

PS

I don't make predictions because thus far all I've proven is I can't even "pick my nose."

LOL

 

 So Clancy had lost 15 baseball bets, then 15 basketball bets, then 15 football bets in a row. He asked his bokie what was going on tonight and the bookie said there's nothing but hockey game, want to bet it?

Clancy said, "Hockey, I don't know anything about hockey!" 

    Avatar

    United States
    Member #2460
    October 7, 2003
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    Posted: August 27, 2006, 2:08 pm - IP Logged

    Prediction is hard enough.

    To make it easier people do that, which might not be much of a prediction, but it makes the predictors and some others happy, so let it be.

    If I predicted 220 boxed numbers for one state I would have to win boxed all of the time.

    If I predict 25 boxed numbers for all states I will have a very good chance of having one or more of those combos come out somewhere often.

    But would there be a profit?

    Predicting is harmless, let people do it.

    Not everybody predicts so many numbers for all states, nor for just one state.

    Some people are really good enough predictors.

    Some people get better with or in time.

    By the way: The new badges don't bother me, whatever makes people happy so long as it is harmless.

    EXCALIBUR is no more that "Handle" is dead, gone.
    Maybe sometime in the future I might come back as LANTERN again, but maybe not, if I don't come back as LANTERN in the future then I won't come back at all, but as I said there is no more EXCALIBUR.

      Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
      Chief Bottle Washer
      New Jersey
      United States
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      May 31, 2000
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      Posted: August 27, 2006, 4:32 pm - IP Logged

      Just a comment on predictions, if I may.  

      I've been here a few months but yesterday was the first time I took a good look at the predictions page, specifically winners and predictions by state.

      OK, this impresses me

      predicited 186, 186 drawn.

      or eventhis would ompress me: predcited 186 286 486,

      186 drawn.

      But when I looked at predictions by state I realized that some people predicted up to 50 combinations for the pick 3. Then if one hits it, and it alone gets posted as the pick. 

      This is the very same m.o. that some sports services go by (especially NCAA and NFL football). Predict 10 games, take one that comes in and call it your "Five star pick".

      I think if snyone jusy looked at winners in the predictions pages and didn't dig a little further they just wouldn't be getting the whole story.

      Just my $.02, no flame war or debate intended, just an observation.

      PS

      I don't make predictions because thus far all I've proven is I can't even "pick my nose."

      LOL

       

       So Clancy had lost 15 baseball bets, then 15 basketball bets, then 15 football bets in a row. He asked his bokie what was going on tonight and the bookie said there's nothing but hockey game, want to bet it?

      Clancy said, "Hockey, I don't know anything about hockey!" 

      The number of predictions posted does not matter, because there are lots of ways to play the game -- some with few picks, some with lots of picks.  The only thing that matters is when you click on someone's name and select "Prediction Statistics".  Someone posting lots of picks, yet manages to get good stats is just as good as someone whos posts a few numbers and has the same stats.  That's how gambling works for any game, not just the lottery.

       

      Check the State Lottery Report Card
      What grade did your lottery earn?

       

      Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
      Help eliminate computerized drawings!

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
        Zeta Reticuli Star System
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        Posted: August 27, 2006, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

        Todd, yeah, of course that's the way gambling works for any game (and along with that, for any game, the losers pay the winners and the house keeps the "vig" and the true odds amount that are not paid out.). 

         I didn't word it right - if I see someone posted three or four Pick 3 selections for yesterday and one of them hit, hey that's pretty good.

        Bit if I see someone predicted a winner, and then go in deeper and realize that the winner was one pick of 50.....well, I don't know if you're familiar with the book Catch-22, but there's a character named Milo Minderbinder, and he goes into business on the black market.

        He explains to people that everything he sells, he sells at a loss, but he's actually making a profit because of volume.

        Something like that.

        Along with casinos in Las Vegas and river boats I worked for a couple of sports services and the m.o. was identical to the muliple predictions. 

        C'est la vie.

        Like I said, it's just an observation.

        Buona Fortuna everyone.

        Smile

          Konformthismfs's avatar - lisasham
          CA
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          Posted: August 27, 2006, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

          Todd, yeah, of course that's the way gambling works for any game (and along with that, for any game, the losers pay the winners and the house keeps the "vig" and the true odds amount that are not paid out.). 

           I didn't word it right - if I see someone posted three or four Pick 3 selections for yesterday and one of them hit, hey that's pretty good.

          Bit if I see someone predicted a winner, and then go in deeper and realize that the winner was one pick of 50.....well, I don't know if you're familiar with the book Catch-22, but there's a character named Milo Minderbinder, and he goes into business on the black market.

          He explains to people that everything he sells, he sells at a loss, but he's actually making a profit because of volume.

          Something like that.

          Along with casinos in Las Vegas and river boats I worked for a couple of sports services and the m.o. was identical to the muliple predictions. 

          C'est la vie.

          Like I said, it's just an observation.

          Buona Fortuna everyone.

          Smile

          If you dig a little deeper, the hit with only 3 or 4 picks might be that persons only hit for the last week or month. While the person with 50 picks, hits 3,4,5 or more times a week. The "Top Predictors" link is a good way to tell who's doing what.  And prompts to all them for not only taking the time to do it, but for having the guts to do it!

          It's not what you got,  It's what you give,  It's not the life you choose, It's the life you live! Guitar

            Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
            Chief Bottle Washer
            New Jersey
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            Posted: August 27, 2006, 8:01 pm - IP Logged

            If you dig a little deeper, the hit with only 3 or 4 picks might be that persons only hit for the last week or month. While the person with 50 picks, hits 3,4,5 or more times a week. The "Top Predictors" link is a good way to tell who's doing what.  And prompts to all them for not only taking the time to do it, but for having the guts to do it!

            I Agree!

             

            Check the State Lottery Report Card
            What grade did your lottery earn?

             

            Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
            Help eliminate computerized drawings!

              Avatar
              New Mexico
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              March 10, 2005
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              Posted: August 28, 2006, 12:49 pm - IP Logged

              Just a comment on predictions, if I may.  

              I've been here a few months but yesterday was the first time I took a good look at the predictions page, specifically winners and predictions by state.

              OK, this impresses me

              predicited 186, 186 drawn.

              or eventhis would ompress me: predcited 186 286 486,

              186 drawn.

              But when I looked at predictions by state I realized that some people predicted up to 50 combinations for the pick 3. Then if one hits it, and it alone gets posted as the pick. 

              This is the very same m.o. that some sports services go by (especially NCAA and NFL football). Predict 10 games, take one that comes in and call it your "Five star pick".

              I think if snyone jusy looked at winners in the predictions pages and didn't dig a little further they just wouldn't be getting the whole story.

              Just my $.02, no flame war or debate intended, just an observation.

              PS

              I don't make predictions because thus far all I've proven is I can't even "pick my nose."

              LOL

               

               So Clancy had lost 15 baseball bets, then 15 basketball bets, then 15 football bets in a row. He asked his bokie what was going on tonight and the bookie said there's nothing but hockey game, want to bet it?

              Clancy said, "Hockey, I don't know anything about hockey!" 

              Coin Toss:

              Thought provoking comments you've made. 

              That set of prediction page stats is worth a bit of study.  For the first time since I began watching it all 8 of the top ten predictors in the Lifetime Wager/Win column are on the positive side of the equation, some after tens of thousands of predictions.  Some of those are also in the top-ten in the hit-ratio column, either lifetime, or during the past 30 days.  Also representing a difference in past performance, overall.

              From my perspective that data argues compellingly that the abilities of LP predictors to successfully predict the outcomes of lottery draws is improving rapidly, far out of proportion to anything that could be attributed to 'luck'.

              The Systems Forum these days is a far more cooperative and dynamic effort than it once was.  Imagination and innovation, group brainstorming and constant testing and tweaking and learning from even hints of potential success are paying off in a unique sort of knowledge, I believe.

              I've read your posts for an awfully long while and I feel a lot of respect for your experience and knowledge of the entire range of gambling pursuits.  But I believe even with all that you might be forced to alter some of  your viewpoints if you give some careful study to those prediction statistics.

              We've all still got a lot to learn, but this little red schoolhouse is producing a kind of education that can't be acquired anywhere else because I don't believe it's ever existed before.

              Thanks for an interesting thread.

              J

              Absorb the good, ignore the bad, weigh the ugly.

              It's about number behavior.

              Egos don't count.

               

              Dedicated to the memory of Big Loooser

               

                Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
                FEMA Region V Camp #21
                United States
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                Posted: August 28, 2006, 2:59 pm - IP Logged

                Coin Toss,

                A winner with a hit out of four picks is a feat to be proud of.  I like to keep my number of picks down for that reason.  That is the ultimate goal of many of us because it is so hard to do and very satisfying to accomplish it.

                But the bottom line is the profit ratio.  You will win more often with 50 picks as opposed to a few picks, but in the end it all evens out.  You can make money both ways.  A profit is a profit no matter how you got it.

                It all comes down to how much money you are willing to outlay to get that profit.  My personal feeling on it is that the pressure is on the person betting a lot of combos to make a profit because that person is inherently going to accumulate a lot of losses as well.  There is only one winning combination in a single draw and the rest are automatic losers.

                I agree with Jack, good thread.  

                Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


                  guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                  United States
                  Member #41383
                  June 16, 2006
                  1969 Posts
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                  Posted: August 28, 2006, 3:11 pm - IP Logged

                  Coin Toss,

                  A winner with a hit out of four picks is a feat to be proud of.  I like to keep my number of picks down for that reason.  That is the ultimate goal of many of us because it is so hard to do and very satisfying to accomplish it.

                  But the bottom line is the profit ratio.  You will win more often with 50 picks as opposed to a few picks, but in the end it all evens out.  You can make money both ways.  A profit is a profit no matter how you got it.

                  It all comes down to how much money you are willing to outlay to get that profit.  My personal feeling on it is that the pressure is on the person betting a lot of combos to make a profit because that person is inherently going to accumulate a lot of losses as well.  There is only one winning combination in a single draw and the rest are automatic losers.

                  I agree with Jack, good thread.  

                  I play a minimum of 6 games and a self-imposed limit of up to 14 games per drawing, if you go more than your limit, then you have no limits and you end up in bankruptcy court, because like all addictions, you think 'just a little more' won't hurt, but you don't know when to say when.

                   

                  If I could play 360 games per drawing, there is no doubt in my mind I can hit a pick-5.

                   

                  I'm pretty sure.

                   

                  Well, kinda sure.

                   

                  Uh, I'd have a better chance as opposed to playing 14 games.

                   

                  Unless the nightmare scenario comes up.

                   

                  On second thought, I'm not 100% sure, it's all random luck (to get ALL 5 numbers), maybe I better not (play 360 games). 

                  Even to get 4 of the 5 is only $100, so it's not worth it.  I'll save the $346 dollars and just continue to play the way I play.

                  To be off by just one number is a disaster when you are spending so much, just look at us here: we know the odds, we somewhat

                  do research, we have our systems down, and we are ecstatic when we get 3/5, and even that doesn't happen very much. 

                    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                    Zeta Reticuli Star System
                    United States
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                    Posted: August 28, 2006, 5:38 pm - IP Logged


                    Thanks Rip Snorter, Rick G, and guesser

                    Like I said, I was just making an observation.  

                    Especially since people here on the board have talked about predicting and playing numbers "across all states" or states and their mirror states, I have to wonder if people with 50 predictions (daily) are actually playing all their predictions.

                    They can show more hits, statistically of course, but as Rick G pointed out, on a money in / money out basis, it can be a whole different story. Four or so losing days in a row and it becomes economic suicide.  

                    when I first got to this board I put a post up about the old Illinois Little Lotto before the matrix expanded. It was 5 / 30 with a constant $200,000 prize for 5 of 5. (Now it's 5 /39 progressive.)

                    Well, the odds of hitting 5 of 5 on a 5/ 30 game are less than $200,000, so someone posted if they had that game they would borrow 40,000 or whatever it was to play all the combinations.

                    Hello. That assumes a solo hit. You can never assume a solo hit.

                    Let's say they did that and they hit on one of those night that five people hit. Hello, you win $40,000 and still owe the interest on the loan, and tax on the $40,000. 

                    Harvey Haddix' 12 inning no-hitter comes to mind here (He pitched a 12 inning no hitter, and lost). 

                    I think I read here on the board that in Pick 3 there are 120 nonpaired combinations. Posting 50 of those is posting 41.6 of the possible total.

                    Just kind of strikes me as odd.

                    These are just observations, no need for anyone to get hostile. Actually I enjoy reading the predictions, I just question the volume of some of them.

                    Luck never gives, only lends

                    Swedish proverb 

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
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                      March 24, 2001
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                      Posted: August 28, 2006, 7:39 pm - IP Logged

                      I look at the prediction board as a testing site where members can test their theories and ideas for picking winning combinations with restrictions similar to those of the real lotteries and have their results verified by an independent source.  Combinations has to be posted before the drawings and can't be changed later.  Money won and lost is close to what happens with the real lottery.

                      Theories and ideas for picking winning numbers are continually posted in all the forums, but most involve a string or group of numbers which may look impressive when all the winning numbers are covered but real lotteries don't work that way, only discrete combinations can be played.  Some members may even stroke their ego and brag that having covered all the winning numbers with a larger group of numbers is proof that they could have won big had they actually played.

                      Members who test their ideas and theories on the prediction board are ignoring their egos and looking for results as close to real lottery results as they can get without spending any money.  They aren't suggesting which combinations others should play, but testing their systems and players who play their posted combinations do so as their own risk.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking