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Pencil & paper, day by day vs backtesting

Topic closed. 11 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Lotterologist.

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Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
Zeta Reticuli Star System
United States
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January 17, 2006
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Posted: September 23, 2006, 3:33 pm - IP Logged

The thread where are they now?--past members

in lottery discussions 

well some of the comments in it, made me think of this.

I've read quite a few if  (no one could read them all) of the posts about various means of number selection.

I've been tracking a few that I've seen here, and my findings are different than what some people here claim, but I'll qualify that by saying I track what I'm going to play. For me it's Illinois Evening Pick 3 and Little Lotto.

I also throw a buck at Lotto and Mega Millions and occassionally Pick 4, but I consider lotto and Mega to be nothing more than blind luck, so that's how I approach them.

For the Pick 3 though, and the Little Lotto ( 5/39, and the usual winner is a QP anyway), I've tracked some things I've seen here, night by night, drawing by drawing, and well, in the time I've been doing that, I've seen some really inflated "results claims."

One system I'm tracking calls for a doulbe to be repeated by a double. It hasn't happened often enough to mention, let alone make it a play.

Another one, for Pick 5, has never picked more than 2 of the 5 numbers ($1) payout.

That's just two of the five or six I'm tracking but they all have about the same results.

This is just observation, not intended as debate.

The reaons I go the paper and pencil, drawing by drawing, route is because, likeI said,  I'm only tracking the games I'm going to play, and also, I think when people backtest, the temptation is just too great to backtest until you can show some kind of results for your theory, no matter how far back you have to go.

That would result in skewed data either way.

Aother thing I've observed is there are a lot of 'heavy players' here. Personally, I'm not going to 'fall in love' with a set  or sets of numbers, wheel them, and play online in multiple states.

There have been a few threads I've seen that were quire lenghty and were actually saying something like:

Play everything but 271, 273, 555, and 614, in every Pick 3 state but Oklahoma tonight.  (Granted an exxageration - but not by much!)

Like I said, these are just observations, but for all the talent here, I'd really like to see someone or a few people at least working on  something for 'narrower' play, let's say (one state, one or two drawings if they have mid-day).

Just my $.02

 Maybe I should have put this in Lottery Discusssions, maybe not.

    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

    United States
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    June 16, 2006
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    Posted: September 25, 2006, 1:26 am - IP Logged

    You said 'This is just observation, not intended as debate', so I don't really know what to say...

      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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      Posted: September 25, 2006, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

      Say anything you want.

      My observation is merely that in tracking 6 methods of number selection I've seen here for almost 100 draws, I haven't seen any of them produce a solid hit.  

      Two out of three in Pick 3, occassionally, 2 out of 5 in Pick 5, nothing more.  Granted Pick 5 is a dream - a mini- dream compared to Pick 6, but still some powerfull odds.

      I realize this is a place to test theories, I'm just saying that some of the claims of results seem to be bogus.

      But I'll keep tracking!

      Green laugh

        guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

        United States
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        Posted: September 25, 2006, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

        Say anything you want.

        My observation is merely that in tracking 6 methods of number selection I've seen here for almost 100 draws, I haven't seen any of them produce a solid hit.  

        Two out of three in Pick 3, occassionally, 2 out of 5 in Pick 5, nothing more.  Granted Pick 5 is a dream - a mini- dream compared to Pick 6, but still some powerfull odds.

        I realize this is a place to test theories, I'm just saying that some of the claims of results seem to be bogus.

        But I'll keep tracking!

        Green laugh

        Tracking numbers is the 100% proven without-a-doubt wrong way to go.  That should be evident with the PB 'Challenges' we have twice a week.

          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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          Posted: September 26, 2006, 10:03 am - IP Logged

          Most are for pick 3....

          Tell me then what is the right way then? 

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
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            March 24, 2001
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            Posted: September 26, 2006, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

            When it comes to talking lotteries, unless I see some actual results  it just talk.

            I think lots of folks like to think if they come close, then except for making one bad move they all but won so they claim a win for conversation sake only.  For pick3 games it been shown that with eight or ten  lines, being within one number of a box or a straight hit 80% of the time is not unique.  The same applies to pick5 and jackpot games, a few lines with one of two numbers plus or minus one and you could have won some money lots of time.  That what make players think they are just a few plays away from winning big and want to share their ideas.  It's also what keeps players buying more tickets.

            It would be nice if systems or theories were tested until they actually won something before they was shared along with the details how they worked but it ain't going to happen.  More likely players are going to have ideas and post them for others to test for them. 

            Members who post on the prediction board put forth their best efforts and seldom do any of them show a profit over a long period.  That should be an indication of how likely anyone is going to post a winning system or theory.

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              Tenaj's avatar - michellea
              Charlotte NC
              United States
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              June 18, 2005
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              Posted: September 26, 2006, 3:07 pm - IP Logged

              When it comes to talking lotteries, unless I see some actual results  it just talk.

              I think lots of folks like to think if they come close, then except for making one bad move they all but won so they claim a win for conversation sake only.  For pick3 games it been shown that with eight or ten  lines, being within one number of a box or a straight hit 80% of the time is not unique.  The same applies to pick5 and jackpot games, a few lines with one of two numbers plus or minus one and you could have won some money lots of time.  That what make players think they are just a few plays away from winning big and want to share their ideas.  It's also what keeps players buying more tickets.

              It would be nice if systems or theories were tested until they actually won something before they was shared along with the details how they worked but it ain't going to happen.  More likely players are going to have ideas and post them for others to test for them. 

              Members who post on the prediction board put forth their best efforts and seldom do any of them show a profit over a long period.  That should be an indication of how likely anyone is going to post a winning system or theory.

              Members who post on the prediction board put forth their best efforts and seldom do any of them show a profit over a long period.  That should be an indication of how likely anyone is going to post a winning system or theory.

               Yes NodI've seen a lot of winning systems and winning theories on this board RJOH.  They are spread out.  It's not the systems or the theories, it's the user.  You have to be rooted and grounded in a winner system of your own before other systems and theories can be appreciated.  Otherwise how can you recognize what is good?

              A bad idea can trigger a good idea.  It's just that newbies and many many times veterans can't recognize what is good. 

              I've seen members of this board tear apart something that was a winning strategy just because they couldn't figure it out.  (Not cashman) and the poster left. 

              It's normal for people to either be afraid, or destroy something they don't understand.  People are so smart they are dumb.

              There is one predictor on this board who posts 50 numbers for all states and most of them are winners daily.  Not the same number over and over that hits but different numbers in different states.  He rarely posts in threads.  ABD-23 if you most know.  Now the average know it all on this board will prove that a profit can not be made from his predictions and his rate ratio is nothing to brag about and that it is too many numbers and the same numbers for a few days and it's for all states.

              Since I already have a winning system I can look at his numbers and pick the winners for the day because I can read the board and hit straight.  BECAUSE I KNOW WHAT I'M LOOKING AT!   I KNOW WHY!  I know what follows and he knows what follows but does it with sums.  I match it up and take it to the bank.  It's a method that lots of people trash on this board but it brings in the $$$$.  You have to be able to take what you can use and leave the rest.  But before you can take what you can use YOU MUST KNOW WHAT IS GOOD!   

              There is also another predictor but mostly in the threads whose numbers you can take to the bank using doubles.  You can not only hit pick 3s straight but straight pick 4s straight if you pay attention.  Their system took horrible criticism.  There is no reason for anyone not to have found a niche on this board.  There are lots of good places.  The Michigan thread is always hot.

              So, I say this to you.  Maybe you don't know how to recognize a good system or theory because you don't have one of your own that works for you.  So stop saying that RJOH.  There's some good stuff on "The LP" you just need to know how to recognize it.

              takeemtothebank

                Lotterologist's avatar - lightbulb
                Lotto City, Michigan
                United States
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                March 30, 2006
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                Posted: September 26, 2006, 3:26 pm - IP Logged

                LOL! If you know where the WINNERS are, then what are we WAITING for, Tenaj?

                Show me the way! Big Grin

                  Tenaj's avatar - michellea
                  Charlotte NC
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                  Posted: September 26, 2006, 4:51 pm - IP Logged

                  LOL! If you know where the WINNERS are, then what are we WAITING for, Tenaj?

                  Show me the way! Big Grin

                  There's always a hound.

                  takeemtothebank

                    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                    United States
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                    June 16, 2006
                    1969 Posts
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                    Posted: September 26, 2006, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

                    First, If there were bulletproof systems guaranteeing a win, then the lottery would not exist.

                     

                    Second, if I had a winning theory, would I tell you ?  

                     

                    Third, I feel I have a fantastic theory, I just can't afford to play it the way it has to be played because it takes more $$$$ than I care to part with (on average, about $80-160 a drawing), and even though I believe 100% in my 'system', I also am smart enough to know that no system is foolproof enough to bet the farm on.  I just won't afford $80-160 twice a week for 3-4 months - nothing is certain.

                     

                    Fourth - As soon as you deviate from your system, it will hit.  I know, it's happened to me twice this year on two PB Pick-5's. Not the Jackpot, but I had two Pick-5's written out, and I changed them before playing them.  One card is on my wall here as a reminder - PATIENCE. 

                     

                    I'm still not calling JG Wentworth. 

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
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                      Posted: September 26, 2006, 5:56 pm - IP Logged

                      Tenaj,

                      I have never suggested anyone stop posting their opinions, theories or systems and I don't pay any attention to anyone who does.  Nothing I've ever posted turned a winning system into a losing system.  My post was a response to Coin Toss's opinion that the claims of good results using some of the posted system were bogus.

                      RJOh 

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        Lotterologist's avatar - lightbulb
                        Lotto City, Michigan
                        United States
                        Member #36256
                        March 30, 2006
                        1472 Posts
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                        Posted: September 27, 2006, 7:21 am - IP Logged

                        There's always a hound.

                        Yeah, but i'm a GOOD dog! Wink