Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 8, 2016, 6:57 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Personal Numbers

Topic closed. 66 replies. Last post 10 years ago by sirbrad.

Page 3 of 5
52
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
NY
United States
Member #23835
October 16, 2005
3474 Posts
Offline
Posted: October 26, 2006, 5:18 pm - IP Logged

FWIW, the winning numbers in MM have been all odd or all even only 4 times in the last 100 drawings, which is about 1 less than expected based on probability and pure randomness. Statistically, the departure is completely insignificant. Interestingly, all 4 of those results have happened since June, 30, a period on which we'd have expected the result to happen just over 2 times.  3 of them have happened since mid-August and 2 in the last 4 weeks. That means this would have been a bad period to bet against that particular unlikely event.  Of course it still wouldn't have mattered to your overall chances.

    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

    United States
    Member #41383
    June 16, 2006
    1969 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: October 26, 2006, 5:33 pm - IP Logged

    Floyd, you are exactly right about what happens if you don't play any of the 5 numbers from the prior game: I pointed out several times that prior to last night, NONE of the numbers from the prior FOUR games had been hit - that's 20 numbers !

    Same goes with numbers prior to 10/21, and prior to 10/18 none of the prior 3 games' (15) numbers had been hit, and prior to 10/14, the prior 2 games had no winning number drawn.

     

    But this, to me, goes hand-in-hand with the inordinate number of 'longshots' hitting, I've been saying for 6 months PB is a game of short-term trends and long-term averages, nobody understands me, nobody believes me.

     

    Nobody can predict what will hit, so we just sit back, devise our own little systems, and we just play, and wait, and wait, and wait........ 

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
      United States
      Member #9
      March 24, 2001
      19828 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: October 26, 2006, 5:47 pm - IP Logged

      FYI.  Since the PB matrix changed 118 drawings ago 68 of the winning combinations did not have a number from the previous drawing and 18 winning combinations did not have one of the 14-20 numbers from the previous four drawings.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

        United States
        Member #41383
        June 16, 2006
        1969 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: October 26, 2006, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

        FYI.  Since the PB matrix changed 118 drawings ago 68 of the winning combinations did not have a number from the previous drawing and 18 winning combinations did not have one of the 14-20 numbers from the previous four drawings.

        That's kinda my point:    Play all 5 of the numbers from the prior drawing, each in a different game, and you have a fair chance of hitting one of them every other game 'or so'.  Problem is, we are on a streak of 5 games where a repeat has not occurred, and that has only happened once before, and that streak ended after 6 games.

         

        And now folks will come on and tell us all about the theories of probability, but folks, you gotta play something, odds notwithstanding. 

          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
          mid-Ohio
          United States
          Member #9
          March 24, 2001
          19828 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: October 26, 2006, 9:28 pm - IP Logged

          FYI. Of those 68 drawings that did have a numbers from the previous drawing.
            28 didn't have a number from just the previous drawing
            14 didn't have a number from the previous 2 drawings
            8 didn't have a number from the previous 3 drawings
            6 didn't have a number from the previous 4 drawings
            7 didn't have a number from the previous 5 drawings
            1 didn't have a number from the previous 8 drawings
            2 didn't have a number from the previous 9 drawings
            1 didn't have a number from the previous 11 drawings
            1 didn't have a number from the previous 14 drawings

           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
             
                       Evil Looking       

            guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

            United States
            Member #41383
            June 16, 2006
            1969 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: October 27, 2006, 12:54 am - IP Logged

            FYI. Of those 68 drawings that did have a numbers from the previous drawing.
              28 didn't have a number from just the previous drawing
              14 didn't have a number from the previous 2 drawings
              8 didn't have a number from the previous 3 drawings
              6 didn't have a number from the previous 4 drawings
              7 didn't have a number from the previous 5 drawings
              1 didn't have a number from the previous 8 drawings
              2 didn't have a number from the previous 9 drawings
              1 didn't have a number from the previous 11 drawings
              1 didn't have a number from the previous 14 drawings

            And to further muddy the waters, go back to 7/1 and then go from there back about 20 games.

             

            This leads to the question: do you play a trend, or does everything just eventually even itself out, given a stretch of games to do it in ?

            As I have said on my website, most 'trends' last about 6 or 8 games, the problem is we don't notice them for 3-4 games, and then we sit

            and watch (usually) to see if they are solid, THEN we play them, but by then the trend is over...... it's human nature for most people, it's a

            great learning experience for me.

             

            By all rights, the current 'trend' of not having repeat numbers from the prior game should be over (?), and the other trend of having a relative 'longshot' hit every other game SHOULD have been over 4 or 5 games ago, it's not. 

              Avatar
              NY
              United States
              Member #23835
              October 16, 2005
              3474 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: October 27, 2006, 1:41 am - IP Logged


              Does everything just eventually even itself out? Yes. No. Sort of. Basically, everything eventually normalizes into a bell curve of some kind. Some of the curves are fairly flat and some are steep, and they pretty much all tend to be somewhat symmetrical.  The exact shape will vary over time, but as long as you have enough data it will resemble a bell curve. 

              A lot of people seem to think that random means the results will be uniform if there are a lot of results. If you flip a coin 5 times you can't possibly have 2.5 heads and 2.5 tails, but everyone expects that after 5000 flips you'll be pretty close to 2500 of each. When there are only 2 possible outcomes, that's probably close to the results you would get. A lot of people aslo expect that if you roll a dice 600 times  each of the 6 numbers will occur about 100 times, but as the number of possible outcomes increases, things change. In the case of picking 5 numbers out of 55 you'd expect each number to be drawn once for every 11 drawings, or 10 times in 110 drawings. 110 drawings is far too small for the results to normalize very much, but the actual results will be significanty different than 10 occurrences of each number.     Some numbers will occur more often than expected, some will occur as many times as expected (except of course that the number of times an outcome occurs has to be a whole number), and some will occur fewer times than expected. If you sort the outcomes by how much they depart from the expected result you'll find that  the greatest number of outcomes happens about as often as expected. A few less outcomes will happen once more or once less than expected and fewer still will happen two times more or less than expected, and so on.

              Does that qualify as "evening out"?
                RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                mid-Ohio
                United States
                Member #9
                March 24, 2001
                19828 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: October 27, 2006, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

                Lotteries don't run long enough for everything to even out as I observed with Ohio Buckey5 and pointed out in an earlier post.  Chances are if you wait until you see a trend happening, it too late to take advantage of it.  As I mentioned earlier, some trends or conditions do repeat and if you pick combinations to take advantage of them then when they do happen your odds of winning are improved but you have to play expecting them to happen.

                As shown by looking at the past 118 PB drawings, had one reduced the number pool to 50 by eliminating numbers of the previous drawing, his odds of matching five would have improved 40% during 58% of the drawings.

                I play MM in Ohio so I examine its history more closely and have found some unique trends that I play for.  Since I usually play only 10-20 lines, I'm satisfied that this is a good way to pick my combinations even though I've never done better than a 3+1.

                 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                   
                             Evil Looking       

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19828 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: October 27, 2006, 11:52 pm - IP Logged

                  From my earlier post:
                  "I play MM in Ohio so I examine its history more closely and have found some unique trends that I play for.  Since I usually play only 10-20 lines, I'm satisfied that this is a good way to pick my combinations even though I've never done better than a 3+1."

                  I posted the 10 lines I played tonight on the prediction board and as you can see I matched a 3+0, so I'm convinced I'm on the right track. 

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                    United States
                    Member #41383
                    June 16, 2006
                    1969 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: October 28, 2006, 1:01 am - IP Logged

                    For the record, I don't think numbers 'even out', I have too much data to say it doesn't.  See Red Ball #40 for further clarification of one example.

                     

                    There are noticeable trends or scenarios, but those scenarios won't point you to specific numbers, THOSE you have to pick on your own.

                    Case in point - we just had 4 numbers from the basic '40 group' hit - the odds are kinda rare for that to occur again in the near future, so there is one scenario for you - don't play 4 numbers from the 40's, and in fact, don't play 4 numbers from ANY group, for 'awhile'.

                    And now that I said that, I would not bet AGAINST it happening, because it seems whenever I post something publicly, I am proven wrong within 2-3 games.....  FWIW.  

                    But seriously, would you pick 4 numbers from any group in the near future ?  I won't. 

                      Avatar
                      NY
                      United States
                      Member #23835
                      October 16, 2005
                      3474 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: October 28, 2006, 1:43 am - IP Logged

                      Every combination has exactly the same chances as each of the other possible combinations. Period. Eliminating some of the numbers from your selection process does nothing, nada, zip, to increase or decrease your odds. Your odds of winning are determined by the matrix and the number of chances you play. Period. No matter how much anyone thinks otherwise, it's really that simple.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
                        Member #9
                        March 24, 2001
                        19828 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: October 28, 2006, 11:55 am - IP Logged

                        KY Floyd,
                        What you say could be a fact but it doesn't matter to those using a system to pick their numbers.  Most of the people who post here understand odds and how the size of the matrix effects them but players who use a system to pick their numbers enjoy the challenge of trying to beat the odds and some are better at it than others as shown by the prediction statistics.  It's part of the fun of playing the lotteries.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          guesser's avatar - Lottery-017.jpg

                          United States
                          Member #41383
                          June 16, 2006
                          1969 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: October 28, 2006, 12:08 pm - IP Logged

                          KY Floyd,
                          What you say could be a fact but it doesn't matter to those using a system to pick their numbers.  Most of the people who post here understand odds and how the size of the matrix effects them but players who use a system to pick their numbers enjoy the challenge of trying to beat the odds and some are better at it than others as shown by the prediction statistics.  It's part of the fun of playing the lotteries.

                          Thank you RJ !

                           

                          Floyd: you have your thoughts, statistical odds, and whatever, other people have theirs:  Four numbers from the 40's just hit Wednesday night, you are saying the odds are just as good for that to recur as not ?   I'm sorry, I don't buy it.   To follow your thoughts, then the odds are just the same for ALL of the numbers in the prior game to hit in tonight's game as not, and I don't think there is anyone on here that would take that bet (all 6 repeating).   Statistically speaking you are correct, but realistically speaking, you're not.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19828 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: October 28, 2006, 12:11 pm - IP Logged

                            With the system I'm developing, numbers become letters in different positions.  Numbers lose their identity as numbers so they don't belong to a group of numbers.  Once I've decided to play a trend which is identified by letters, numbers are picked based on their positions in previous drawings to match that trend.  Friday MM winning numbers had a trend/profile EGJLQ/ABCDG and the numbers I played that matched 3 had the profile DGJJL/ABDEF, since I had the GJL/ABD of the winning numbers profile I matched 3.

                            I've been testing my system with West Virgina Cash25 and it has constantly matched the odds of matching three per every 10 lines or better.  Since Cash25 only has a pool of only 25 numbers, it's a good lottery for testing a system to see the results sooner. 

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                              mid-Ohio
                              United States
                              Member #9
                              March 24, 2001
                              19828 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: October 28, 2006, 12:24 pm - IP Logged

                              FYI.  Mathematician who do this type of figuring have said that the odds of the same combination hitting twice in not the same as it hitting once.  So once a combination of numbers has hit the odds of them hitting again are different.

                               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                                 
                                           Evil Looking