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Potential Occurrence Probability

Topic closed. 4 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Hyperdimension.

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JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3675 Posts
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Posted: November 9, 2006, 12:16 pm - IP Logged

Potential Occurrence Probability

    Reference - Discharging Reoccurrence Distribution, Average Rate of Reoccurrence Distribution, Generalized Average Rate of Reoccurrence, Potential Reoccurrence Probability

    Potential Occurrence Probability -  y = 1 - e -(x / m)

      x - draw difference or Dd between previous occurrence and next draw number
      m - average rate of reoccurrence

      y - probability of occurrence relative to last occurrence

The potential occurrence probability was derived from the discharging reoccurrence function and the potential reoccurrence probability function. This function can be used to calculate the probability that a number will occur relative to the last occurrence. Occurrence and reoccurrence are compliments of each other; they are similar but not the same.  Example, referencing the number 17 in the Wisconsin Megabucks 6/49 lottery, the last occurrence was at draw index 1491 based on a total draw count of 1500. What's the probability of 17 occurring in the next draw, 1501, or the up coming draw 1504 this 2006-11-11?

    For 1501:

      x = Dd = (1501 - 1491) = 9
      m = Ag(49, 6) = 49 / 6 » 8.17

      y = 1 - e -(9 / 8.17) » .668    or  about 66.8%

 

    For 1504:

      x = Dd = (1504 - 1491) = 13
      m = Ag(49,6) = 49 / 6 » 8.17

      y = 1 - e -(13 / 8.17) » .796  or  about 79.6%

The probability is low just after a number is picked and increases as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is more likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of reoccurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is defined in a different topic, Potential Reoccurrence Probability

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Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
    The Quantum Master
    West Concord, MN
    United States
    Member #21
    December 7, 2001
    3675 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: December 2, 2006, 7:45 am - IP Logged

    6/49 Lottery

    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
    Use at your own risk.

    Order is a Subset of Chaos
    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
    Wisdom is Not Censored
    Douglas Paul Smallish
    Jehocifer

      Hyperdimension's avatar - latest trace_171.gif

      United States
      Member #9059
      November 26, 2004
      128 Posts
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      Posted: December 3, 2006, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

      Hi JADELottery,

        Do you have the actual formulas in excel? I could see the graphs in some of your messages, but it is difficult to create them.

        Great work!

      El pensamiento ordena el caos..

      http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

        JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
        The Quantum Master
        West Concord, MN
        United States
        Member #21
        December 7, 2001
        3675 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: December 3, 2006, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

        Hi JADELottery,

          Do you have the actual formulas in excel? I could see the graphs in some of your messages, but it is difficult to create them.

          Great work!

        Here are some sample Excel files, click on the links and open or save to your computer:

        rofs.xls and sample6of49.xls

        Note: These file links are temporary and may be gone in 30 days from posting.

        Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
        Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
        Use at your own risk.

        Order is a Subset of Chaos
        Knowledge is Beyond Belief
        Wisdom is Not Censored
        Douglas Paul Smallish
        Jehocifer

          Hyperdimension's avatar - latest trace_171.gif

          United States
          Member #9059
          November 26, 2004
          128 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: December 3, 2006, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

          Hi JADELottery,

           

           Thank's a lot for the excel files!!

           

          Regards 

          El pensamiento ordena el caos..

          http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com