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# Potential Occurrence Probability

Topic closed. 4 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Hyperdimension.

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The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3675 Posts
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 Posted: November 9, 2006, 12:16 pm - IP Logged

Potential Occurrence Probability

Potential Occurrence Probability -  y = 1 - e -(x / m)

x - draw difference or Dd between previous occurrence and next draw number
m - average rate of reoccurrence

y - probability of occurrence relative to last occurrence

The potential occurrence probability was derived from the discharging reoccurrence function and the potential reoccurrence probability function. This function can be used to calculate the probability that a number will occur relative to the last occurrence. Occurrence and reoccurrence are compliments of each other; they are similar but not the same.  Example, referencing the number 17 in the Wisconsin Megabucks 6/49 lottery, the last occurrence was at draw index 1491 based on a total draw count of 1500. What's the probability of 17 occurring in the next draw, 1501, or the up coming draw 1504 this 2006-11-11?

For 1501:

x = Dd = (1501 - 1491) = 9
m = Ag(49, 6) = 49 / 6 » 8.17

y = 1 - e -(9 / 8.17) » .668    or  about 66.8%

For 1504:

x = Dd = (1504 - 1491) = 13
m = Ag(49,6) = 49 / 6 » 8.17

y = 1 - e -(13 / 8.17) » .796  or  about 79.6%

The probability is low just after a number is picked and increases as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is more likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of reoccurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is defined in a different topic, Potential Reoccurrence Probability

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Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
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Jehocifer

The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3675 Posts
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 Posted: December 2, 2006, 7:45 am - IP Logged

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

United States
Member #9059
November 26, 2004
128 Posts
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 Posted: December 3, 2006, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

Do you have the actual formulas in excel? I could see the graphs in some of your messages, but it is difficult to create them.

Great work!

El pensamiento ordena el caos..

http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

The Quantum Master
West Concord, MN
United States
Member #21
December 7, 2001
3675 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 3, 2006, 10:14 pm - IP Logged

Do you have the actual formulas in excel? I could see the graphs in some of your messages, but it is difficult to create them.

Great work!

Here are some sample Excel files, click on the links and open or save to your computer:

Note: These file links are temporary and may be gone in 30 days from posting.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
Any gain or loss is your responsibility.

Order is a Subset of Chaos
Knowledge is Beyond Belief
Wisdom is Not Censored
Douglas Paul Smallish
Jehocifer

United States
Member #9059
November 26, 2004
128 Posts
Offline
 Posted: December 3, 2006, 11:18 pm - IP Logged

Thank's a lot for the excel files!!

Regards

El pensamiento ordena el caos..

http://1x2quinielas.blogspot.com

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