Potential Reoccurrence Probability - y = e^{-(x / m)}

x - draw difference or Dd between previous occurrence and next draw number m - average rate of reoccurrence

y - probability of reoccurrence relative to last occurrence

The potential reoccurrence probability was derived from the discharging reoccurrence function. This function can be used to calculate the probability that a number will reoccur relative to the last occurrence. Example, referencing the number 17 in the Wisconsin Megabucks 6/49 lottery, the last occurrence was at draw index 1491 based on a total draw count of 1500. What's the probability of 17 reoccurring in the next draw, 1501, or the up coming draw 1504 this 2006-11-11?

For 1501:

x = Dd = (1501 - 1491) = 9 m = Ag(49, 6) = 49 / 6 » 8.17

y = e^{-(9 / 8.17)}» .332 or about 33.2%

For 1504:

x = Dd = (1504 - 1491) = 13 m = Ag(49,6) = 49 / 6 » 8.17

y = e^{-(13 / 8.17)}» .204 or about 20.4%

The probability is high just after a number is picked and diminishes as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is less likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of occurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is to be defined in a different topic.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

Findlay, Ohio United States Member #4855 May 28, 2004 400 Posts Offline

Posted: November 11, 2006, 12:12 pm - IP Logged

This is some very awsome stuff!

I've been reading through your various posts trying to make more sense out of them. There are many things I've always understood but was never quite sure how to apply a formula to them...

So I take it the "Half-Life" is the 50% chance mark or the number of consecutive trials to have a 50% probability from the last time the event occured? The average rate of reoccurrence for a Pick 3 permutation is once every 1000 games. So the formula above would be similar to this...

(-1000)*(ln(.5) = 693.1471

Which has the similar result of... log(1-.5)/log(1-.001) = 692.8005

Your equation uses the natural log and saliu's uses base 10. Interesting stuff!

"The probability is high just after a number is picked and diminishes as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is less likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of occurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is to be defined in a different topic."

Its funny how things work. I noticed a long time ago that according to probability, that the very best chance for the last combo that was drawn to be drawn again is actually the very next drawing (a repeat). This chance can be said to be the best if you are pedicting the skip of the last number drawn before the future drawings take place.

So if the last combo drawn was 458 and I had to make a prediction of exactly what future game 458 would be drawn again in, the very next draw would be my best bet with a probability of .001. As the future draws increase (looking ahead before the first draw after 458 first hit), the probability for the skip to end at that particular point decreases with each consecutive trial.

When the individual probabilities for the skip to end for all trials between 1 and 693 are added together, you arraive at your 50% chance mark ...or Half-Life.

United States Member #5344 June 30, 2004 23641 Posts Offline

Posted: November 11, 2006, 5:28 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Thoth on November 11, 2006

This is some very awsome stuff!

I've been reading through your various posts trying to make more sense out of them. There are many things I've always understood but was never quite sure how to apply a formula to them...

So I take it the "Half-Life" is the 50% chance mark or the number of consecutive trials to have a 50% probability from the last time the event occured? The average rate of reoccurrence for a Pick 3 permutation is once every 1000 games. So the formula above would be similar to this...

(-1000)*(ln(.5) = 693.1471

Which has the similar result of... log(1-.5)/log(1-.001) = 692.8005

Your equation uses the natural log and saliu's uses base 10. Interesting stuff!

"The probability is high just after a number is picked and diminishes as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is less likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of occurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is to be defined in a different topic."

Its funny how things work. I noticed a long time ago that according to probability, that the very best chance for the last combo that was drawn to be drawn again is actually the very next drawing (a repeat). This chance can be said to be the best if you are pedicting the skip of the last number drawn before the future drawings take place.

So if the last combo drawn was 458 and I had to make a prediction of exactly what future game 458 would be drawn again in, the very next draw would be my best bet with a probability of .001. As the future draws increase (looking ahead before the first draw after 458 first hit), the probability for the skip to end at that particular point decreases with each consecutive trial.

When the individual probabilities for the skip to end for all trials between 1 and 693 are added together, you arraive at your 50% chance mark ...or Half-Life.

ORLANDO, FLORIDA United States Member #4924 June 3, 2004 5893 Posts Offline

Posted: November 11, 2006, 6:41 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by Thoth on November 11, 2006

This is some very awsome stuff!

I've been reading through your various posts trying to make more sense out of them. There are many things I've always understood but was never quite sure how to apply a formula to them...

So I take it the "Half-Life" is the 50% chance mark or the number of consecutive trials to have a 50% probability from the last time the event occured? The average rate of reoccurrence for a Pick 3 permutation is once every 1000 games. So the formula above would be similar to this...

(-1000)*(ln(.5) = 693.1471

Which has the similar result of... log(1-.5)/log(1-.001) = 692.8005

Your equation uses the natural log and saliu's uses base 10. Interesting stuff!

"The probability is high just after a number is picked and diminishes as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is less likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of occurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is to be defined in a different topic."

Its funny how things work. I noticed a long time ago that according to probability, that the very best chance for the last combo that was drawn to be drawn again is actually the very next drawing (a repeat). This chance can be said to be the best if you are pedicting the skip of the last number drawn before the future drawings take place.

So if the last combo drawn was 458 and I had to make a prediction of exactly what future game 458 would be drawn again in, the very next draw would be my best bet with a probability of .001. As the future draws increase (looking ahead before the first draw after 458 first hit), the probability for the skip to end at that particular point decreases with each consecutive trial.

When the individual probabilities for the skip to end for all trials between 1 and 693 are added together, you arraive at your 50% chance mark ...or Half-Life.

Interesting stuff JadeLottery...keep it coming

Jadelottery, thanks for the postings you are doing and thank you Thoth for putting it in explanations, so even a layman, like my self can understand.

United States Member #5599 July 13, 2004 1184 Posts Offline

Posted: November 13, 2006, 9:00 am - IP Logged

Hi,

I've enjoyed your recent posts. However, becuase you've learned the the math facts doesn't mean you've learned the lesson. I say this because you haven't taken your posts to the next logical step.....how well did this math fact work with the lottery? Without some sort of testing against the real world lottery application, you have no idea if your formulas are applicable or not.

However, thanks for some refreshing posts in an otherwise dull mathematics forum.

You are a slave to the choices you have made. jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Online

Posted: November 13, 2006, 2:55 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JKING on November 13, 2006

Hi,

I've enjoyed your recent posts. However, becuase you've learned the the math facts doesn't mean you've learned the lesson. I say this because you haven't taken your posts to the next logical step.....how well did this math fact work with the lottery? Without some sort of testing against the real world lottery application, you have no idea if your formulas are applicable or not.

However, thanks for some refreshing posts in an otherwise dull mathematics forum.

because of your impatients, this is last post I will ever respond to you in any topic for any reason.

Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only. Any gain or loss is your responsibility. Use at your own risk.

Order is a Subset of Chaos Knowledge is Beyond Belief Wisdom is Not Censored Douglas Paul Smallish Jehocifer

Washington United States Member #47309 October 30, 2006 34 Posts Offline

Posted: November 13, 2006, 3:44 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JKING on November 13, 2006

Hi,

I've enjoyed your recent posts. However, becuase you've learned the the math facts doesn't mean you've learned the lesson. I say this because you haven't taken your posts to the next logical step.....how well did this math fact work with the lottery? Without some sort of testing against the real world lottery application, you have no idea if your formulas are applicable or not.

However, thanks for some refreshing posts in an otherwise dull mathematics forum.

JKing,

People keep asking Doug "what does this mean", he said in several posts that he will expound on all that he has presented when he's finished with everything. There's a lot of material for him to cover and he has to "paint the whole picture" before he starts answering questions. He's on to something reall juicy here, and there is a method to his madness. Please have patience everybody. :)

United States Member #5599 July 13, 2004 1184 Posts Offline

Posted: November 14, 2006, 8:55 am - IP Logged

I'm sorry doug is so sensitive, and that I've hurt his delicate feelings. *lol*

I guess, since I never talked to him before, I'll somehow have to live with the thought that I'll never be able to talk to him again.

The fact that his response became a personnal issue rather than one of a constructive reply should raise a flag to all of you. I have patience with everybody's system, including my own.

A simple reply like...I am showing the theory and will get to the actual practice later would have been adequate.

I really do hope for the best when it comes to his yet developed system.

But, expect the worst. Only because he is retracing steps that have a history of not working with others I am aware of.

Like all...doug...best of luck...and please prove me wrong.*S*

You are a slave to the choices you have made. jk

Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

Findlay, Ohio United States Member #4855 May 28, 2004 400 Posts Offline

Posted: November 16, 2006, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by JKING on November 13, 2006

Hi,

I've enjoyed your recent posts. However, becuase you've learned the the math facts doesn't mean you've learned the lesson. I say this because you haven't taken your posts to the next logical step.....how well did this math fact work with the lottery? Without some sort of testing against the real world lottery application, you have no idea if your formulas are applicable or not.

However, thanks for some refreshing posts in an otherwise dull mathematics forum.

Actually JKING, I have tested the math throughout the entire histories of almost every Pick 3 game in the country. I've also tested other types of lottery games from time to time I can say with utmost confidence that the "half-life" or "probability median" is a very real, consistant and accurate truth in the laws of probability....and there are many, many more!

One very important piece of the puzzle that gets overlooked to many game analyzers is the effects of probability. The games WILL DO what their supposed to do at the rates they are supposed to do them in. All one has to do is learn the correct technique used to measure the games. Then everything random becomes much more clear. This doesn't mean than any formula is going to predict the next number drawn! Rather, it shows you what's most probable to happen, within what time frames, which allows you to play better within those limits and constaints.

United States Member #41383 June 16, 2006 1969 Posts Offline

Posted: November 17, 2006, 12:25 am - IP Logged

I see things in games that I can tell you will occur all the time - and they do.

But that's a far cry from having all 5 numbers AND the powerball number hit based on mathematical equations, I just don't think it's possible. I think you can get 'lucky' and owe it to a math theory, but if there IS indeed a 'true' mathematical answer to the lottery:

1) I am SURE there are mathematicians all over the USA - the world - that would have figured it out long before now, don't you think ?

2) And if they have, why don't they win it every drawing ?

Do I doubt anyone's mathematical abilities as posted on here ? Nope.

Do I think it will amount to much ? Nope, see 1) and 2) above, but I guess we will see...

Findlay, Ohio United States Member #4855 May 28, 2004 400 Posts Offline

Posted: November 18, 2006, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by guesser on November 17, 2006

I see things in games that I can tell you will occur all the time - and they do.

But that's a far cry from having all 5 numbers AND the powerball number hit based on mathematical equations, I just don't think it's possible. I think you can get 'lucky' and owe it to a math theory, but if there IS indeed a 'true' mathematical answer to the lottery:

1) I am SURE there are mathematicians all over the USA - the world - that would have figured it out long before now, don't you think ?

2) And if they have, why don't they win it every drawing ?

Do I doubt anyone's mathematical abilities as posted on here ? Nope.

Do I think it will amount to much ? Nope, see 1) and 2) above, but I guess we will see...

I totally agree that there is no equation (that is related to probability) that will predict and pinpoint the very next lottery number to be selected.

Probability is closely tied to combinatorics. Odds and probabilities are calculations that are based on the combinations & permutations that one is playing or measuring against the total amount of possibilities. Probability formulas always refer to these elements in one way or another.

Perhaps the real problem isn't the use of mathematics itslef, but rather the type of math being used and what variables are being put into it. I believe that one might actually be able to apply a formula that does pinpoint the very next number to be drawn if it's applied to the right set of variables. These variables have nothing to do with the laws of probability! Rather, they would be found in the realm of physics. Like playing a game of pool, the force and angle that the balls collide with one another have a very real and calculable result as to which direction they will go in. The real variables that control the randomness for a mechanically driven lottery game include ,but are not limited to:

The weight of each ball

The order in which they are put into the chute

The angle and speed they roll from the chute to the pool in

The speed of the air and its whirling effects, and the way it effects each ball as they go from the chute into the pool.

The trajectory of each ball based on the effects from above and the calulated velocity and impact angle of each ball against other balls...which creates a new trajectory for each...over and over again.

The length of time the balls are allowed to mix before the trigger is pulled to allow the balls to be selected.

Im sure there are many more variables that go into the process, but perhaps the two most important are the order that the balls are in when they enter the pool and the length of time they are allowed to mix. Think about it, if all variables were know, they results could infact be calculated. The biggest determining factor would then be the mix time. You could calculate which balls would be where for the entire mix cycle. Establishing an average mix to draw time would effectively let you calculate which balls will be drawn at any particular moment. All you would have to do is cover every combo based on the average expected moment of draw.

All this sounds impossible, but it could most likely be done. If it were done, it would prove the the games are not truly "random" by nature, but only appear random to the player because he doesn't know the variables that are responsible for creating the outcome ahead of time.

United States Member #47693 November 19, 2006 7 Posts Offline

Posted: November 21, 2006, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

Geez, I am impressed. I haven't heard this conversation since college logic. In truth, there are many variables as mentioned above and many more. Many lottery systems have an order in which the balls are set and that order is also part of an order. I have seen in the past many systems try to simulate this order, but to no avail.

There is a lot to say for gut feelings. For example, when I first played the horses last year, I told my husband that I liked the name of Giacomo, mostly because I like opera. Well he knows a *little* about handicapping horses and advised that I had already placed a bundle on my combination of horses (also by an alphabetic system) and in that system I had one longshot. I insisted that I wanted to include this one. But he said, "nah." Well I did win about $1,300 for my bet, but if I had went with my gut and included Giacomo, it would have been about $3 Million! Hmm. . . feelings, though illogical, do count!

Texas United States Member #27861 December 6, 2005 29 Posts Offline

Posted: November 21, 2006, 7:59 pm - IP Logged

A hypothesis is a proposition that is consistent with known data, but has been neither verified nor shown to be false.

In statistics, a hypothesis (sometimes called a statistical hypothesis) refers to a statement on which hypothesis testing will be based. Particularly important statistical hypotheses include the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis.

West Concord, MN United States Member #21 December 7, 2001 3675 Posts Online

Posted: November 28, 2006, 10:00 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by for99c on November 21, 2006

A hypothesis is a proposition that is consistent with known data, but has been neither verified nor shown to be false.

In statistics, a hypothesis (sometimes called a statistical hypothesis) refers to a statement on which hypothesis testing will be based. Particularly important statistical hypotheses include the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis.