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Potential Reoccurrence Probability

Topic closed. 15 replies. Last post 10 years ago by JADELottery.

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The Quantum Master
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Posted: November 9, 2006, 11:51 am - IP Logged

Potential Reoccurrence Probability

    Reference - Discharging Reoccurrence Distribution, Average Rate of Reoccurrence Distribution, Generalized Average Rate of Reoccurrence

    Potential Reoccurrence Probability -  y = e -(x / m)

      x - draw difference or Dd between previous occurrence and next draw number
      m - average rate of reoccurrence

      y - probability of reoccurrence relative to last occurrence

The potential reoccurrence probability was derived from the discharging reoccurrence function. This function can be used to calculate the probability that a number will reoccur relative to the last occurrence. Example, referencing the number 17 in the Wisconsin Megabucks 6/49 lottery, the last occurrence was at draw index 1491 based on a total draw count of 1500. What's the probability of 17 reoccurring in the next draw, 1501, or the up coming draw 1504 this 2006-11-11?

    For 1501:

      x = Dd = (1501 - 1491) = 9
      m = Ag(49, 6) = 49 / 6 » 8.17

      y = e -(9 / 8.17) » .332    or  about 33.2%

 

    For 1504:

      x = Dd = (1504 - 1491) = 13
      m = Ag(49,6) = 49 / 6 » 8.17

      y = e -(13 / 8.17) » .204  or  about 20.4%

The probability is high just after a number is picked and diminishes as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is less likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of occurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is to be defined in a different topic. 

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Jehocifer

    JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
    The Quantum Master
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    Posted: November 11, 2006, 2:39 am - IP Logged

    This has been bugging the heck me, but I have to say,"Yes, I know compliment should have been spelled with an 'e' not an 'i'."

    Silly me and the spell check.

    Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
    Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
    Use at your own risk.

    Order is a Subset of Chaos
    Knowledge is Beyond Belief
    Wisdom is Not Censored
    Douglas Paul Smallish
    Jehocifer

      Thoth's avatar - binary
      Findlay, Ohio
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      Posted: November 11, 2006, 12:12 pm - IP Logged

      This is some very awsome stuff!

      I've been reading through your various posts trying to make more sense out of them.  There are many things I've always understood but was never quite sure how to apply a formula to them...

      Half-life of Reoccurrence

          Reference - Potential Reoccurrence Probability

          Half-life of Reoccurrence -  xl = -m ln(1 / 2)

            m - average rate of reoccurrence

            xl - half-life of reoccurrence

      So I take it the "Half-Life" is the 50% chance mark or the number of consecutive trials to have a 50% probability from the last time the event occured?  The average rate of reoccurrence for a Pick 3 permutation is once every 1000 games.  So the formula above would be similar to this...

      (-1000)*(ln(.5) = 693.1471

      Which has the similar result of... log(1-.5)/log(1-.001) = 692.8005

      Your equation uses the natural log and saliu's uses base 10.  Interesting stuff!

      "The probability is high just after a number is picked and diminishes as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is less likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of occurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is to be defined in a different topic."

      Its funny how things work.  I noticed a long time ago that according to probability, that the very best chance for the last combo that was drawn to be drawn again is actually the very next drawing (a repeat).  This chance can be said to be the best if you are pedicting the skip of the last number drawn before the future drawings take place. 

      So if the last combo drawn was 458 and I had to make a prediction of exactly what future game 458 would be drawn again in, the very next draw would be my best bet with a probability of .001.  As the future draws increase (looking ahead before the first draw after 458 first hit), the probability for the skip to end at that particular point decreases with each consecutive trial.

      When the individual probabilities for the skip to end for all trials between 1 and 693 are added together, you arraive at your 50% chance mark ...or Half-Life.

      Interesting stuff JadeLottery...keep it coming

      ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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        Posted: November 11, 2006, 5:28 pm - IP Logged

        This is some very awsome stuff!

        I've been reading through your various posts trying to make more sense out of them.  There are many things I've always understood but was never quite sure how to apply a formula to them...

        Half-life of Reoccurrence

            Reference - Potential Reoccurrence Probability

            Half-life of Reoccurrence -  xl = -m ln(1 / 2)

              m - average rate of reoccurrence

              xl - half-life of reoccurrence

        So I take it the "Half-Life" is the 50% chance mark or the number of consecutive trials to have a 50% probability from the last time the event occured?  The average rate of reoccurrence for a Pick 3 permutation is once every 1000 games.  So the formula above would be similar to this...

        (-1000)*(ln(.5) = 693.1471

        Which has the similar result of... log(1-.5)/log(1-.001) = 692.8005

        Your equation uses the natural log and saliu's uses base 10.  Interesting stuff!

        "The probability is high just after a number is picked and diminishes as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is less likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of occurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is to be defined in a different topic."

        Its funny how things work.  I noticed a long time ago that according to probability, that the very best chance for the last combo that was drawn to be drawn again is actually the very next drawing (a repeat).  This chance can be said to be the best if you are pedicting the skip of the last number drawn before the future drawings take place. 

        So if the last combo drawn was 458 and I had to make a prediction of exactly what future game 458 would be drawn again in, the very next draw would be my best bet with a probability of .001.  As the future draws increase (looking ahead before the first draw after 458 first hit), the probability for the skip to end at that particular point decreases with each consecutive trial.

        When the individual probabilities for the skip to end for all trials between 1 and 693 are added together, you arraive at your 50% chance mark ...or Half-Life.

        Interesting stuff JadeLottery...keep it coming

        I Agree!  Keep it coming..  Boy.. it is interesting..

             OLD/Vtrac   Lottery Bible         Double Warnings      Thumbs Up TN F34/F44

          CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
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          Posted: November 11, 2006, 6:41 pm - IP Logged

          This is some very awsome stuff!

          I've been reading through your various posts trying to make more sense out of them.  There are many things I've always understood but was never quite sure how to apply a formula to them...

          Half-life of Reoccurrence

              Reference - Potential Reoccurrence Probability

              Half-life of Reoccurrence -  xl = -m ln(1 / 2)

                m - average rate of reoccurrence

                xl - half-life of reoccurrence

          So I take it the "Half-Life" is the 50% chance mark or the number of consecutive trials to have a 50% probability from the last time the event occured?  The average rate of reoccurrence for a Pick 3 permutation is once every 1000 games.  So the formula above would be similar to this...

          (-1000)*(ln(.5) = 693.1471

          Which has the similar result of... log(1-.5)/log(1-.001) = 692.8005

          Your equation uses the natural log and saliu's uses base 10.  Interesting stuff!

          "The probability is high just after a number is picked and diminishes as the draw difference increases. However, this does not mean the probability of the number is less likely to be picked, it's a relative probability from the previous occurrence. There is another function that describes the probability of occurrence that is a compliment of this function. That function is to be defined in a different topic."

          Its funny how things work.  I noticed a long time ago that according to probability, that the very best chance for the last combo that was drawn to be drawn again is actually the very next drawing (a repeat).  This chance can be said to be the best if you are pedicting the skip of the last number drawn before the future drawings take place. 

          So if the last combo drawn was 458 and I had to make a prediction of exactly what future game 458 would be drawn again in, the very next draw would be my best bet with a probability of .001.  As the future draws increase (looking ahead before the first draw after 458 first hit), the probability for the skip to end at that particular point decreases with each consecutive trial.

          When the individual probabilities for the skip to end for all trials between 1 and 693 are added together, you arraive at your 50% chance mark ...or Half-Life.

          Interesting stuff JadeLottery...keep it coming

          Jadelottery, thanks for the postings you are doing and thank you Thoth for putting it in explanations, so even a layman, like my self can understand.

            JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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            Posted: November 13, 2006, 9:00 am - IP Logged

            Hi,

              I've enjoyed your recent posts. However, becuase you've learned the the math facts doesn't mean you've learned the lesson. I say this because you haven't taken your posts to the next logical step.....how well did this math fact work with the lottery? Without some sort of testing against the real world lottery application, you have no idea if your formulas are applicable or not.

                However, thanks for some refreshing posts in an otherwise dull mathematics forum.

            You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

            Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

              JADELottery's avatar - MeAtWork 03.PNG
              The Quantum Master
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              Posted: November 13, 2006, 2:55 pm - IP Logged

              Hi,

                I've enjoyed your recent posts. However, becuase you've learned the the math facts doesn't mean you've learned the lesson. I say this because you haven't taken your posts to the next logical step.....how well did this math fact work with the lottery? Without some sort of testing against the real world lottery application, you have no idea if your formulas are applicable or not.

                  However, thanks for some refreshing posts in an otherwise dull mathematics forum.

              because of your impatients, this is last post I will ever respond to you in any topic for any reason.

              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
              Use at your own risk.

              Order is a Subset of Chaos
              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
              Wisdom is Not Censored
              Douglas Paul Smallish
              Jehocifer

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                Posted: November 13, 2006, 3:44 pm - IP Logged

                Hi,

                  I've enjoyed your recent posts. However, becuase you've learned the the math facts doesn't mean you've learned the lesson. I say this because you haven't taken your posts to the next logical step.....how well did this math fact work with the lottery? Without some sort of testing against the real world lottery application, you have no idea if your formulas are applicable or not.

                    However, thanks for some refreshing posts in an otherwise dull mathematics forum.

                JKing,

                People keep asking Doug "what does this mean", he said in several posts that he will expound on all that he has presented when he's finished with everything. There's a lot of material for him to cover and he has to "paint the whole picture" before he starts answering questions. He's on to something reall juicy here, and there is a method to his madness. Please have patience everybody. :)

                What a wonderful world...

                  JKING's avatar - Kaleidoscope 3.gif

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                  Posted: November 14, 2006, 8:55 am - IP Logged

                  I'm sorry doug is so sensitive, and that I've hurt his delicate feelings. *lol*

                  I guess, since I never talked to him before, I'll somehow have to live with the thought that I'll never be able to talk to him again.

                  The fact that his response became a personnal issue rather than one of a constructive reply should raise a flag to all of you. I have patience with everybody's system, including my own.

                  A simple reply like...I am showing the theory and will get to the actual practice later would have been adequate.

                  I really do hope for the best when it comes to his yet developed system.

                  But, expect the worst. Only because he is retracing steps that have a history of not working with others I am aware of.

                  Like all...doug...best of luck...and please prove me wrong.*S*

                  You are a slave to the choices you have made.  jk

                  Even a blind squirrel will occasioanlly find an acorn.

                    Thoth's avatar - binary
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                    Posted: November 16, 2006, 12:37 pm - IP Logged

                    Hi,

                      I've enjoyed your recent posts. However, becuase you've learned the the math facts doesn't mean you've learned the lesson. I say this because you haven't taken your posts to the next logical step.....how well did this math fact work with the lottery? Without some sort of testing against the real world lottery application, you have no idea if your formulas are applicable or not.

                        However, thanks for some refreshing posts in an otherwise dull mathematics forum.

                    Actually JKING, I have tested the math throughout the entire histories of almost every Pick 3 game in the country.  I've also tested other types of lottery games from time to time  I can say with utmost confidence that the "half-life" or "probability median" is a very real, consistant and accurate truth in the laws of probability....and there are many, many more!

                    One very important piece of the puzzle that gets overlooked to many game analyzers is the effects of probability.  The games WILL DO what their supposed to do at the rates they are supposed to do them in.  All one has to do is learn the correct technique used to measure the games.  Then everything random becomes much more clear.  This doesn't mean than any formula is going to predict the next number drawn!  Rather, it shows you what's most probable to happen, within what time frames, which allows you to play better within those limits and constaints.

                    ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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                      Posted: November 17, 2006, 12:25 am - IP Logged

                      I see things in games that I can tell you will occur all the time - and they do.

                      But that's a far cry from having all 5 numbers AND the powerball number hit based on mathematical equations, I just don't think it's possible. I think you can get 'lucky' and owe it to a math theory, but if there IS indeed a 'true' mathematical answer to the lottery:

                      1) I am SURE there are mathematicians all over the USA - the world - that would have figured it out long before now, don't you think ?

                      2) And if they have, why don't they win it every drawing ?

                       

                      Do I doubt anyone's mathematical abilities as posted on here ?  Nope.

                      Do I think it will amount to much ?  Nope, see 1) and 2) above, but I guess we will see... 

                        Thoth's avatar - binary
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                        Posted: November 18, 2006, 1:26 pm - IP Logged

                        I see things in games that I can tell you will occur all the time - and they do.

                        But that's a far cry from having all 5 numbers AND the powerball number hit based on mathematical equations, I just don't think it's possible. I think you can get 'lucky' and owe it to a math theory, but if there IS indeed a 'true' mathematical answer to the lottery:

                        1) I am SURE there are mathematicians all over the USA - the world - that would have figured it out long before now, don't you think ?

                        2) And if they have, why don't they win it every drawing ?

                         

                        Do I doubt anyone's mathematical abilities as posted on here ?  Nope.

                        Do I think it will amount to much ?  Nope, see 1) and 2) above, but I guess we will see... 

                        I totally agree that there is no equation (that is related to probability) that will predict and pinpoint the very next lottery number to be selected.

                        Probability is closely tied to combinatorics.  Odds and probabilities are calculations that are based on the combinations & permutations that one is playing or measuring against the total amount of possibilities.  Probability formulas always refer to these elements in one way or another.

                        Perhaps the real problem isn't the use of mathematics itslef, but rather the type of math being used and what variables are being put into it.  I believe that one might actually be able to apply a formula that does pinpoint the very next number to be drawn if it's applied to the right set of variables.  These variables have nothing to do with the laws of probability!  Rather, they would be found in the realm of physics.  Like playing a game of pool, the force and angle that the balls collide with one another have a very real and calculable result as to which direction they will go in.  The real variables that control the randomness for a mechanically driven lottery game include ,but are not limited to: 

                        • The weight of each ball
                        • The order in which they are put into the chute
                        • The angle and speed they roll from the chute to the pool in
                        • The speed of the air and its whirling effects, and the way it effects each ball as they go from the chute into the pool.
                        • The trajectory of each ball based on the effects from above and the calulated velocity and impact angle of each ball against other balls...which creates a new trajectory for each...over and over again.
                        • The length of time the balls are allowed to mix before the trigger is pulled to allow the balls to be selected.

                        Im sure there are many more variables that go into the process, but perhaps the two most important are the order that the balls are in when they enter the pool and the length of time they are allowed to mix.  Think about it, if all variables were know, they results could infact be calculated.  The biggest determining factor would then be the mix time.  You could calculate which balls would be where for the entire mix cycle.  Establishing an average mix to draw time would effectively let you calculate which balls will be drawn at any particular moment.  All you would have to do is cover every combo based on the average expected moment of draw.

                        All this sounds impossible, but it could most likely be done.  If it were done, it would prove the the games are not truly "random" by nature, but only appear random to the player because he doesn't know the variables that are responsible for creating the outcome ahead of time.

                        ~Probability=Odds in Motion~

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                          Posted: November 21, 2006, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

                          Geez, I am impressed.  I haven't heard this conversation since college logic.  In truth, there are many variables as mentioned above and many more.  Many lottery systems have an order in which the balls are set and that order is also part of an order.  I have seen in the past many systems try to simulate this order, but to no avail. 

                          There is a lot to say for gut feelings.  For example, when I first played the horses last year, I told my husband that I liked the name of Giacomo, mostly because I like opera.  Well he knows a *little* about handicapping horses and advised that I had already placed a bundle on my combination of horses (also by an alphabetic system) and in that system I had one longshot.  I insisted that I wanted to include this one.  But he said, "nah."  Well I did win about $1,300 for my bet, but if I had went with my gut and included Giacomo, it would have been about $3 Million!  Hmm. . . feelings, though illogical, do count!Disapprove

                           

                          Twestcrowe

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                            Posted: November 21, 2006, 7:59 pm - IP Logged

                            A hypothesis is a proposition that is consistent with known data, but has been neither verified nor shown to be false.

                            In statistics, a hypothesis (sometimes called a statistical hypothesis) refers to a statement on which hypothesis testing will be based. Particularly important statistical hypotheses include the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis.

                            In symbolic logic, a hypothesis is the first part of an implication (with the second part being known as the predicate).

                            In general mathematical usage, "hypothesis" is roughly synonymous with "conjecture."

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                              The Quantum Master
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                              Posted: November 28, 2006, 10:00 am - IP Logged

                              A hypothesis is a proposition that is consistent with known data, but has been neither verified nor shown to be false.

                              In statistics, a hypothesis (sometimes called a statistical hypothesis) refers to a statement on which hypothesis testing will be based. Particularly important statistical hypotheses include the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis.

                              In symbolic logic, a hypothesis is the first part of an implication (with the second part being known as the predicate).

                              In general mathematical usage, "hypothesis" is roughly synonymous with "conjecture."

                              Uh, yeah...  what you said. Very well done. Ponder

                              Presented 'AS IS' and for Entertainment Purposes Only.
                              Any gain or loss is your responsibility.
                              Use at your own risk.

                              Order is a Subset of Chaos
                              Knowledge is Beyond Belief
                              Wisdom is Not Censored
                              Douglas Paul Smallish
                              Jehocifer