|Posted: November 9, 2006, 1:31 pm - IP Logged|
Half-life of Reoccurrence
Reference - Potential Reoccurrence Probability
Half-life of Reoccurrence - xl = -m ln(1 / 2)
m - average rate of reoccurrence
xl - half-life of reoccurrence
The half-life of reoccurrence is used to describe the decay of reoccurrence through the draw cycle. When used in a ratio with the draw difference, Dd, it can quickly show in general where in the potential reoccurrence probability the draw difference is. Example, using the number 49 in Wisconsin Megabucks 6/49, the last occurrence was at draw 1479 based on 1500 draws. How many half-lives has the draw difference gone through since the number 49's last selection?
h = Dd / xl = Dd / (-m ln(1 / 2))
h = (1500 - 1479) / ((-8.17) ln(1/2))
h » 3.71 half-lives
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