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A Tutorial in Progressive Wagering

Topic closed. 42 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Coin Toss.

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lottaloot's avatar - AvatarZ56
Redford/MI
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Posted: November 13, 2006, 12:30 pm - IP Logged

Thanks for sharing CPS10. 

This was really informational for me.  Thumbs Up

L ttaL   T

    Rick G's avatar - avatar 1766.jpg
    FEMA Region V Camp #21
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    Posted: November 13, 2006, 12:53 pm - IP Logged

    Thanks, Keith!

    Posted 4/6:  IL Pick 3 midday and evening until they hit:  555, 347 (str8).


      cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
      The Carolinas - Charlotte
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      Posted: November 13, 2006, 1:37 pm - IP Logged

      LL & Rick

      You are very welcome. There's more to come, so keep your eyes peeled. I have a lot of work here at the office today, so I might not be able to continue until tonight...and then, my Panthers are on MNF, so it might be difficult for Lesson Two tonight, but I will try my hardest.

      You guys have helped me a lot since I joined so I want to share some info to you all as well :)

      The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

      Stooges

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        Posted: November 13, 2006, 3:54 pm - IP Logged

        Heck, even in the example above would have you just breaking even if you won after the 5th draw. What's the point in playing, if you are playing to just break even or just "lose as little as possible"??

        If you aren't playing to win, then why play at all? That's when the fun begins!

        You can apply a Negative Betting Progression below and you will win in the 10th draw, or the 3rd, or the 9th or whenever!! Anytime you get a hit, you will get a profit!!!

        Check this table. Now remember, each unit represents $1, so when you see 2 units on a draw, that means you bet $2 on each of your 30 numbers on that draw:

         

        DrawBetUnitsIf LossIf Win
        1$30 1($30)$120
        2$30 1($60)$90
        3$30 1($90)$60
        4$30 1($120)$30
        5$60 2($180)$120
        6$60 2($240)$60
        7$90 3($330)$120
        8$90 3($420)$30
        9$120 4($540)$60
        10$150 5($690)$60

         

        Look there...Draw #10 was a loser for $150 in the flat betting scheme, but in this one, you would have profited $60!

        Draw #5 would net you $120 profit, where above it was a break-even situation!

        Progressive betting is a great idea on paper, because when reality doesn't interfere you can just keep playing until you win.  In the real world you're up against probability and the people who decide whether or not to accept your bet. You say you only need a bankroll of $690, but that's an artificial limit based on the fantasy that you can't lose more than 9 times in a row. In the real world you can lose even more than probability says is expected, so what happens if you lose the 10th hand?.

        On paper you can just make the 11th, 12th or nth bet and finally make your profit, but in the real world you'll need a bigger bankroll.  If you win the 11th bet, you'll have bet a total of $740 and you'll win $750 for a whopping $10 profit. Of course in the real world losing is still a very real possibility, so what happens if you lose again? If you only wager $180 your total outlay will have been $920, and you can only win back $900, so you need to up your wager by 2 units to $210, and you're at the point where it starts to spiral out of control.  Here it is in table form:

        Bet #   amount   total loss   potential win   potential profit 

        12        $210          $950      $1050            $100

        13          $240        $1190      $1200            $10

        14        $300        $1490      $1500              $10

        15        $390        $1880      $2050            $170

        16         $480        $2360      $2400            $40

        If you still haven't won after 16 tries you're out $2360 and you've  risked it against a potential profit of $40.

        You said you use the same strategy for blackjack, so what can happen there?

        Bet #   amount   total loss   potential win   potential profit 

        1        $10          $10          $20            $10

        2        $20          $30          $40            $10

        3        $50          $80          $100           $20

        4        $100       $180          $200           $20

        5        $200       $380          $400           $20

        6        $400       $780          $800           $20

        7        $800       $1580        $1600         $20

        8        $1600       $3180        $3200         $20 

        9        $3200       $6380        $6400         $20

        10      $6400       $12,780      $12,800       $20

        Assuming you're an average player the good news is that your chances of losing each hand are only about 50%, so it is unlikely that you'll lose several hands in a row. The bad news is that probability says you can lose a hundred hands in a row even if it's unlikely, your wagers have to grow quickly and unless you risk enormous amounts your profit will be very modest. The other difference between blackjack and the numbers is that you can't buy multiple units. You have to place a single bet for the whole amount, and the dealer has the option of refusing your bet. It's even tougher to make a profit when you've lost a couple of thousand bucks and you have to win it back $100 at a time.

          cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
          The Carolinas - Charlotte
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          Posted: November 13, 2006, 4:11 pm - IP Logged

          Floyd

          I agree with every point you have made, and that's why I have laid out the facts so that people can make their own decisions. Sure, there are situations where you could go on such a losing streak that you would get buried eventually. However, if your bankroll can support it, and the shop will take your bet, each win could give you a profit, unlike with flat betting.

          The 10 draws was just an example. I could put 100 draws on there. The point is that if you are going to win, win some money, don't win to lose just a little bit, you know?

          I also explained that I wait until a series is long overdue before I start betting first of all, and then I apply the progression to it. If it gets a little chilly, I am pretty sure I will make it up in the long run if you are dealing with extreme cases like I do.

          Thank you for your input on this subject! It is appreciated!

          The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

          Stooges

            sfilippo's avatar - skull
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            Posted: November 13, 2006, 6:36 pm - IP Logged

            ya know, you guys got me to thinking here..

            I can easily try this out with play money at one of those online blackjack casinos.

            it never occured to me to progressive bet before at blackjack.. that might just be the ticket

            Smiley Steve

              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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              Posted: November 13, 2006, 7:42 pm - IP Logged


              This is an interesting thread. 

              I'm kind of surprised at the thouygh of assumoing a win in lotto, even Pick 3 or Pick 4, but a little about progressive systems; 

               On table games the house limit exists to prevent it from working.

              Let's say a player is a $1 bettor and the house limit is $1,000.

              The player loses bets of:

              1

              2

              4

              8

              16

              32

              64

              128

              256

              512

              (As Floyd pinted out, don't think this can't happen- and then some). 

              The player has lost $1023. His next bet, which would show a net gain of $1 if he wins, should be $1024, the next step in the progression, but the house limit is $1,000. So even if he was crazy enough to risk $1024 to show a gain of $1, he can't, the best he could do is win the bet and still be $23 loser.

              This is why the house limit exists, to keep anyone with "deep enough pockets" from beating the game. 

              The casino isn't worried about $1, but in a house where the limits are much higher and his first bet is $1,000 it's a little different.

              A lot of people hear stories about "No limit" at the Horseshoe (Vegas).  Actually for the average person the limit is $10,000 - if anyone wants to bet more than that, their limit is established by their first bet, i.e., over a $10,000 limit and it has to be "from the hip".  

              The $10,000 limit is so anyone "kamikaze" enough to bet a buck on the pass line and let it go "to the moon" can get to $10,000 and that's it.

              The only progression that can succeed is betting more when you are winning and less when losing, always "press up" with house money, never chase.

               Casinos literally send a plane to pick up progressive bettors with big bankrolls, and that's for games with a lot lower house edge than lottery. I would think the lotteries feel the same way.

              Just my $02.  

                sfilippo's avatar - skull
                Oklahoma
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                Posted: November 13, 2006, 8:33 pm - IP Logged

                good post!

                Smiley Steve

                  Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                  Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                  Posted: November 14, 2006, 2:16 am - IP Logged


                  Thanks. 

                  Human nature is a funny thing - the person so willing to play the "double up and catch up" method will turn right around and not increase their bets on a winning streak.

                   When they should be letting the 1-2-4-8-16 etc work to their advantage, they'll reach a point - usually early on and stick with the 'flat bets' mentioned in the OP - when they should be winning hundreds or thousands, they're winning $5 and $10 at a whack.

                  Of course, with lottery and lottery payoffs, it's different, but how many here have hit.  

                    cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
                    The Carolinas - Charlotte
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                    Posted: November 14, 2006, 10:38 am - IP Logged


                    This is an interesting thread. 

                    I'm kind of surprised at the thouygh of assumoing a win in lotto, even Pick 3 or Pick 4, but a little about progressive systems; 

                     On table games the house limit exists to prevent it from working.

                    Let's say a player is a $1 bettor and the house limit is $1,000.

                    The player loses bets of:

                    1

                    2

                    4

                    8

                    16

                    32

                    64

                    128

                    256

                    512

                    (As Floyd pinted out, don't think this can't happen- and then some). 

                    The player has lost $1023. His next bet, which would show a net gain of $1 if he wins, should be $1024, the next step in the progression, but the house limit is $1,000. So even if he was crazy enough to risk $1024 to show a gain of $1, he can't, the best he could do is win the bet and still be $23 loser.

                    This is why the house limit exists, to keep anyone with "deep enough pockets" from beating the game. 

                    The casino isn't worried about $1, but in a house where the limits are much higher and his first bet is $1,000 it's a little different.

                    A lot of people hear stories about "No limit" at the Horseshoe (Vegas).  Actually for the average person the limit is $10,000 - if anyone wants to bet more than that, their limit is established by their first bet, i.e., over a $10,000 limit and it has to be "from the hip".  

                    The $10,000 limit is so anyone "kamikaze" enough to bet a buck on the pass line and let it go "to the moon" can get to $10,000 and that's it.

                    The only progression that can succeed is betting more when you are winning and less when losing, always "press up" with house money, never chase.

                     Casinos literally send a plane to pick up progressive bettors with big bankrolls, and that's for games with a lot lower house edge than lottery. I would think the lotteries feel the same way.

                    Just my $02.  

                    CT

                    Yes...that is true. In the case of a 50/50 chance, you would be in a position to have to play the Martingale progression as you pointed...the doubling up of your bet after a loss. I would NEVER advocate such a strategy. That is the fastest way to ruin imaginable. In the lottery, you aren't playing a 50/50 chance, so your bets increasing would be much flatter than the ultra-steep Martingale.

                    For instance, I use a technique in blackjack called Oscar's Grind. It involves a scenario whereby you don't double up to get your win. Since blackjack is a low-house edge game, you run into streaks, good and bad. With this Oscar's Grind, you take advantage of hot streaks and minimize set backs from losing streaks.

                    The way it goes is this: if you win your first bet, continue to bet the same amount. If you lose a bet, continue to bet the same amount. Now, your profit goal at all times is one unit in a series. But you never increase your bet after a loss. However, if you are mired in a losing streak and you win finally, you increase your bet one unit. Keep doing this until you are (a) down 10 units and quit; or (b) up one unit profit and start the series over again.

                    An example:

                    Bet

                    Result

                    Standing

                    Bet 1 unitLose-1 unit
                    Bet 1 unitWin+0 units
                    Bet 1 unitLose-1 unit
                    Bet 1 unitLose-2 units
                    Bet 1 unitLose-3 units
                    Bet 1 unitWin-2 units
                    Bet 2 unitsWin+0 units
                    Bet 1 unitLose-1 unit
                    Bet 1 unitWin+0 units
                    Bet 1 unitWin+1 unit
                    BETTING SERIES HAS BEEN WON  
                    The player starts with a loss so his second stake remains at one unit. This bet is won, putting him back to even. Because he is only seeking a one-unit win for the progression, he does not escalate his bet to two units. Bets 3 through 5 are losses so he stays with a one-unit stake. After the sixth bet wins, he now increases his wager to two units. The seventh bet also wins, but again he only needs a one unit bet to win the sequence. The eighth bet loses so the ninth wager is one unit. Finally, the tenth bet wins and our player wins the entire progression. Notice that out of ten total wagers, nine were only one unit in size. This system tends to be more conservative and less volatile. The sequence illustrated above contained five wins and five losses. I like the fact that this system does not quickly escalate your losing wagers and blindside you like some of the others. However, as your losses outnumber your wins, the amount you must wager after a win will steadily mount. Sometimes in probability, a tree diagram is used to show all of the possible outcomes one can encounter. The rounded boxes are terminal events, ending the betting progression. This is accomplished by either winning the progression (four ways to win) or reaching the fifth bet, where we have elected to stop the progression to keep things manageable. (Taking the negative progression further, will actually lose you more money). Each terminal event contains a percent chance that you will end the progression with that outcome.             Another sequence might look like this: 

                    Bet

                    Result

                    Standing

                    Bet 1 unitLose-1 unit
                    Bet 1 unitLose-2 units
                    Bet 1 unitWin-1 unit
                    Bet 2 unitsLose-3 units
                    Bet 2 unitsLose-5 units
                    Bet 2 unitsLose-7 units
                    Bet 2 unitsWin-5 units
                    Bet 3 unitsWin-2 units
                    Bet 3 unitsWin+1 unit
                    BETTING SERIES HAS BEEN WON  
                                As noted earlier, the goal of each betting series is to be ahead by one unit. As with all systems, you are playing a game of chance. Please make sure that you have a substantial bankroll with which to play. A good rule-of-thumb is to have a minimum of 75 units on hand. For example, if you are a $5 (red chip) player, you would want to have a minimum of a $375 bankroll.

                    The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                    Stooges

                      Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                      Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                      Posted: November 14, 2006, 10:48 am - IP Logged


                      That Oscar's Grind is a variation of a very old "grind" system called the 31 system...

                      The bets are

                      1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 4, 8, 8

                      (totals 31)....

                      Same type of play as you mentioned, just different amounts.

                      Of course, just like justxploring has said about developing a fear about not playing her numbers in the Florida lottery, the day you play one of these grind systems will be the day you catch a streak and win 24 bets in a row! 

                       The best system in the world on a dice table is the "Press, parlay, more beer" system!

                      Smile

                        cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
                        The Carolinas - Charlotte
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                        Posted: November 14, 2006, 11:10 am - IP Logged


                        That Oscar's Grind is a variation of a very old "grind" system called the 31 system...

                        The bets are

                        1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 4, 4, 8, 8

                        (totals 31)....

                        Same type of play as you mentioned, just different amounts.

                        Of course, just like justxploring has said about developing a fear about not playing her numbers in the Florida lottery, the day you play one of these grind systems will be the day you catch a streak and win 24 bets in a row! 

                         The best system in the world on a dice table is the "Press, parlay, more beer" system!

                        Smile

                        Right...the grind systems are very good though if you set yourself with a low loss-limit.

                        Of course 24 bets in a row would be a good win for the day :)

                        I like the "more beer" system...I play that most often at the riverboats in Cincinnati!!

                        The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                        Stooges

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                          Posted: November 14, 2006, 11:13 am - IP Logged

                          cps10...thanks for the detailed review of the Oscar's Grind system.

                           

                          Quick question: how does this system approach the specialty bets; splitting three and/or eights, doubling down on 11 when the dealer is showing 6, etc. 

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                            Posted: November 14, 2006, 11:13 am - IP Logged

                            what is the more beer system? just wondering

                              cps10's avatar - Lottery-004.jpg
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                              Posted: November 14, 2006, 11:18 am - IP Logged

                              cps10...thanks for the detailed review of the Oscar's Grind system.

                               

                              Quick question: how does this system approach the specialty bets; splitting three and/or eights, doubling down on 11 when the dealer is showing 6, etc. 

                              That's a great question, CA LotteryGuy.

                              The specialty bets are treated the same. If you have 2 units down on a regular bet, and you get 8's, split them with 2 units on each hand. If you lose them both, keep track of how far down you are, and just take it from there.

                              Say for instance, you won a 1-unit hand and now are down 3 units. You have increased your bet to 2 units per Oscar. You get dealt 8's. you split and have 2 units on 1 hand and 2 units on the other. You lose both. You are now down 7 units. What do you bet on the next hand? Just 2 units.

                              Another example...say you split them up like that and you win one and lose one, so you are still down only 3 units. What to do then? That's right...still bet 2 units on the next hand.

                              The North Carolina Education Lottery - so much a joke that here are their mascots:

                              Stooges