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Odds Don't Change When Jackpot Goes UP

Topic closed. 60 replies. Last post 10 years ago by Stack47.

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bobby623's avatar - abstract
San Angelo, Texas
United States
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Posted: December 5, 2006, 3:42 pm - IP Logged

It's amazing how many folks can quote statistics, cite odds of this and that happening, etc.

You buy one ticket, you have one chance of winning the jackpot.

Buy two tickets, you have two chances of winning the jackpot and sharing it with yourself,  etc.

I've read hundreds of posts and have not found one where someone has demonstrated that knowing the odds makes one bit of difference. In fact, the posts on this subject discourage folks from buying a ticket.

Keep it simple - buy a ticket and hope for the best!

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    Posted: December 5, 2006, 3:52 pm - IP Logged

    It surprises me that some people believe the odds of winning a lottery go up when the jackpot gets bigger.  If you're smart (grin), you will realize the odds of winning any prize is the same whether the jackpot is $2 million or $35 Million.  I was reading in a few articles that people feel that their chances of winning are much slimmer as the jackpot goes up as more people are buying tickets.  The only thing that changes is the prize structure not the odds. More money is being divided amongst more people...however the odds remain the same.  EG. Lotto 649 (Canada) still one in 13,983,816.   Every ticket has a constant chance of winning.

    Uh, I know. It's the expected rate of return that changes.

    And yes, buying 2 tickets does cut the odds in half. That's like telling me that if I buy half of the total combinations in a game, my overall odds are not 1 in 2.

    (insert signature here)

      paurths's avatar - underground
      Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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      Posted: December 5, 2006, 7:45 pm - IP Logged

      If one person played one combination the odds would be 1 in 146 million, meaning 146.000.000 - 1 = 159.999.999 combinations left.
      if two persons would play one combination each (different numbers) the odds would be 146.000.000 - 2 = 159.999.998 combinations left.
      the odds would not be 146.000.000 / 2 --> 1 in 73.000.000!!!

      Yes, the odds of someone winning the jackpot will go up with the more people playing it,
      but the odds for 1 person, who is not "someone", would not go up if a million people played it or a hundred thousand people playing it.

      Anyhow, some people call it, pretty close to "stupid" to play any lottery that doesn't have the payouts that live up to the odds, like euromillions, which pays 15.000.000 euro while there are just over 75.000.000 combinations, meaning 2 euro per combination this means an investment of 150.000.000 euro's to be "sure" to win.
      If you play 1 combination if the stake is 15.000.000 euro's, or you play 1 combination while the stake is 180.000.000 your odds stay the same of hitting all the numbers.

      I don't understand why some people then decide, when the stake would be 15.000.000 euro's, it is not worth playing that combination.
      Ofcourse the higher the payout the more money you get, but to me 15.000.000 euro's (is what? $16.000.000?) is more then enough to have in my posession (or possesion? dunnow)...

      Cheers
      Ricky

      lasas3

      An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

        Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
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        Posted: December 5, 2006, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

        Uh, I know. It's the expected rate of return that changes.

        And yes, buying 2 tickets does cut the odds in half. That's like telling me that if I buy half of the total combinations in a game, my overall odds are not 1 in 2.

        JimmySand9

        Do you realize you just implied that buying two tickets covers half of the total combinations?

        "And yes, buying 2 tickets does cut the odds in half. That's like telling me that if I buy half of the total combinations in a game, my overall odds are not 1 in 2."

        I'm just going to let all you people who really believe that keep thinking it - it sells a lot more tickets for the lottery, most tickets are losers, and that's how jackpots grow.

        In any form of gambling, the losers pay the winners and the house keeps the vig. 

        No wonder so many people sell so many systems.

        Bang Head

        Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

        Lep

        There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

          Surge's avatar - Lottery-063.jpg
          Ohio
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          Posted: December 6, 2006, 1:09 am - IP Logged

          If one person played one combination the odds would be 1 in 146 million, meaning 146.000.000 - 1 = 159.999.999 combinations left.
          if two persons would play one combination each (different numbers) the odds would be 146.000.000 - 2 = 159.999.998 combinations left.
          the odds would not be 146.000.000 / 2 --> 1 in 73.000.000!!!

          Yes, the odds of someone winning the jackpot will go up with the more people playing it,
          but the odds for 1 person, who is not "someone", would not go up if a million people played it or a hundred thousand people playing it.

          Anyhow, some people call it, pretty close to "stupid" to play any lottery that doesn't have the payouts that live up to the odds, like euromillions, which pays 15.000.000 euro while there are just over 75.000.000 combinations, meaning 2 euro per combination this means an investment of 150.000.000 euro's to be "sure" to win.
          If you play 1 combination if the stake is 15.000.000 euro's, or you play 1 combination while the stake is 180.000.000 your odds stay the same of hitting all the numbers.

          I don't understand why some people then decide, when the stake would be 15.000.000 euro's, it is not worth playing that combination.
          Ofcourse the higher the payout the more money you get, but to me 15.000.000 euro's (is what? $16.000.000?) is more then enough to have in my posession (or possesion? dunnow)...

          Cheers
          Ricky

          EXACTLY!!  It's simple math.  For every combination you play, you're just taking that number of combinations from the total odds.

          Buying two tickets DOES NOT cut the odds in half.

          If you want to cut the odds in half of a 150,000,000 to one lottery, buy 75,000,000 tickets.

          Keep it simple 

            BobP's avatar - bobp avatar.png
            Dump Water Florida
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            Posted: December 6, 2006, 2:10 am - IP Logged

            EXACTLY!!  It's simple math.  For every combination you play, you're just taking that number of combinations from the total odds.

            Buying two tickets DOES NOT cut the odds in half.

            If you want to cut the odds in half of a 150,000,000 to one lottery, buy 75,000,000 tickets.

            You're confusing odds with division. 

            If your team has 1 guy and the other team 10 odds are 1in10.

            If your team has 2 guys and the other team 10 odds are 1in5.

            If your team has 5 guys and the other team 10 odds are 1in2.

            If your team has 10 guys and the other team 10 odds are 1in1.

            When you have two columns of assending numbers one running up and the other down they meet in the middle.

            1-9
            2-8
            3-7
            4-6
            5-5 *
            6-4
            7-3
            8-2
            9-1

            This is the odds progression in action . . . doubling the tickets cuts the odds in half each time as anyone can clearly see.
             
            1 ticket = 1in14mil
            2 tickets = 1in7mil
            4 tickets = 1in3.5mil
            8 tickets = 1in1.75mil
            16 tickets = 1in870,000
            32 tickets = 1in435,000
            64 tickets = 1in217,500
            128 tickets = 1in108,750
            256 tickets = 1in54,375
            512 tickets = 1in27,875
            1024 tickets = 1in13,593
            2048 tickets = 1in6,796
            4098 tickets = 1in3,398
            8196 tickets = 1in1,699
            16,392 tickets = 1in849
            32,784 tickets = 1in424
            65,568 tickets = 1in212
            131,136 tickets = 1in106
            262,272 tickets = 1in53
            524,544 tickets = 1in26.5
            1,049,088 tickets = 1in13.25
            2,098,176 tickets = 1in7.12
            4,196,352 tickets = 1in3.56
            8,392,704 tickets = 1in1.78
            (14,000,000 tickets = 1in1)
            16,785,408 tickets = 1in.89

            BobP


              Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
              Zeta Reticuli Star System
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              Posted: December 6, 2006, 3:00 am - IP Logged


              "1 ticket = 1in14mil
              2 tickets = 1in7mil"

              Horsefeathers.

              If 1 ticket = 1 in 14,000,000

              2 tickets  = 2 in 13,999,999.

              Otherwise, using your example, when Powerball or Mega Millions was in the huindreds of millions people with deep enough pockets would be buying the amount of tickets necessary to "guarantee" a jackpot.

              But people with the expertise to be able to amass enough money to do that aren't so lame as to fall for this nonsense about odds being halved.

              And in your own example above, you start with:

              1 ticket = 1 in 14 mil

              and go "down to"

              16,785,408 tickets =  1 in.89

              I find it extremely interesting - and entertaining that someone trying to peddle this tripe:

              "This is the odds progression in action . . . doubling the tickets cuts the odds in half each time as anyone can clearly see"

              starts out with  1 in 14 million and "proves" they've halved the odds by taking it to the point of 16,785,408 tickets - when the original endeavor was to half the 1 in 14,000,000.

              If the original odds were 1 in 14 million why in blazes would you get 16, 785,408 tickets.

              go bavk to the Abbot and Costello routine, it makes a lot more sense. Unless of course you're going to "prove" that if the uncle and his niece wait "long enough" they will eventually be the same age.

              Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

              Lep

              There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

                paurths's avatar - underground
                Switching between Fairfax, VA and Belgium
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                Posted: December 6, 2006, 3:18 am - IP Logged

                oops,

                i wrote: "If one person played one combination the odds would be 1 in 146 million, meaning 146.000.000 - 1 = 159.999.999 combinations left.
                if two persons would play one combination each (different numbers) the odds would be 146.000.000 - 2 = 159.999.998 combinations left.
                the odds would not be 146.000.000 / 2 --> 1 in 73.000.000!!!"

                That should ofcourse be:
                "If one person played one combination the odds would be 1 in 146 million, meaning 146.000.000 - 1 = 145.999.999 combinations left.
                if two persons would play one combination each (different numbers) the odds would be 146.000.000 - 2 = 145.999.998 combinations left.
                the odds would not be 146.000.000 / 2 --> 1 in 73.000.000!!!"

                lasas3

                An onion a day keeps everyone away!!!

                  justxploring's avatar - villiarna
                  Wandering Aimlessly
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                  Posted: December 6, 2006, 3:23 am - IP Logged

                  "1 ticket = 1in14mil
                  2 tickets = 1in7mil"

                   

                  I agree with Coin Toss, but I think the confusion might be that the lottery isn't the same as a raffle. Recently there have been some state raffles with limited tickets printed. So when then FL lottery sold 1,250,000 tickets and announced that 10 people would win $1 million, the odds became 1 in 125,000.  (odds stated on the FL web site) So winning a raffle with a set amount of tickets that will be selected has nothing to do with the amount of combinations as in a weekly lottery drawing, since each ticket purchased was re-entered into a pool to be drawn on Jan 1.  In this case, there will be guaranteed winners. 

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                    Posted: December 6, 2006, 3:33 am - IP Logged

                    JimmySand9

                    Do you realize you just implied that buying two tickets covers half of the total combinations?

                    "And yes, buying 2 tickets does cut the odds in half. That's like telling me that if I buy half of the total combinations in a game, my overall odds are not 1 in 2."

                    I'm just going to let all you people who really believe that keep thinking it - it sells a lot more tickets for the lottery, most tickets are losers, and that's how jackpots grow.

                    In any form of gambling, the losers pay the winners and the house keeps the vig. 

                    No wonder so many people sell so many systems.

                    Bang Head

                    How do you figure he "implied that buying two tickets covers half of the total combinations?" He didn't even say anything about the number of combinations. He's talking about the ratio of the possible combinations to the number of combinations you have tickets for. The ratio is what determines your odds. 

                    Let's use pick 3 so I can type shorter numbers. With 1 ticket your odds are 1 in 1000. Buy a second ticket and your odds are 2 in 1000. Since 2 in 1000 is a ratio it's the same as 1 in 500. Do you at least agree that 1 in 500 is half of 1000? So, as he said but you apparently didn't understand, "yes, buying 2 tickets does cut the odds in half."

                    If you were to buy half of the possible combinations, again using pick 3, you would have 500 tickets, for odds of 500 in 1000. Once again using 3rd grade math to reduce the ratio, we get 1 in 2. Again, that's exactly what he said.

                    As for Bob P's post he's simply explaining the math.  When he says that 16,785,408 tickets =  1 in.89  it's a simple statement of how the math works.  BY covering all of the combinations you would definitely have one winning ticket, but by buying even more tickets there's a chnace you would have more than one winning ticket. The math isn't about how many tickets you should buy, it's about the odds of having a winning ticket. Nothing more and nothing less. 

                    I've tried before and you seem unable to wrap your mind around it, but I'll try once more with really small numbers. The game is pick 1, and is played by choosing a single digit from 0 to 9. The tickets are free, but there is no cash prize because the sole purpose of the game is to demonstrate odds. You play 1 ticket,  with 9, for odds of 1 in 10 or 1 to 9.  That's 1 chnace out of 10 possible combinations or 1 number that will win against 9 that will lose. You will only win if the winning number is 9. Since there are 10 numbers possible, there is a 10%chance that 9 will be drawn and you'll win.

                    I get 2 tickets, playing 3 and 5. That gives me 2 numbers out of a possible 10, so my odds are 2 in 10 or 2 to 8.  The two tickets mean there are 2 numbers that will result in having a winning ticket and there are 8 numbers that will result in not having a winning ticket. There is a 10% chance that the 3 will be drawn and a 10% chance that the 5 will be drawn. They add together for a 20% chance that I will win.

                    Last time I checked, 20 was twice as much as 10, so buying two tickets makes me twice as likely to win.

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                      Posted: December 6, 2006, 3:50 am - IP Logged

                      "1 ticket = 1in14mil
                      2 tickets = 1in7mil"

                       

                      I agree with Coin Toss, but I think the confusion might be that the lottery isn't the same as a raffle. Recently there have been some state raffles with limited tickets printed. So when then FL lottery sold 1,250,000 tickets and announced that 10 people would win $1 million, the odds became 1 in 125,000.  (odds stated on the FL web site) So winning a raffle with a set amount of tickets that will be selected has nothing to do with the amount of combinations as in a weekly lottery drawing, since each ticket purchased was re-entered into a pool to be drawn on Jan 1.  In this case, there will be guaranteed winners. 


                      Winning the raffle has everything to do with the number of combinations. The game's odds always depend on the number of possible combinations, regardless of whether or not the game has been designed to guarantee a winner(s).  The only difference between a typical raffle and a lottery is that with a raffle the possible combinations are limited to the ones that are played and each combination can only be played once.

                      In the case of the Florida raffle the odds of winning with one ticket are 1 in 125,000 because there will be 10 combinations drawn out of 1,250,000 available combinations.If a lottery was designed with 1,250,000 possible combinations and 10 winning numbers were drawn each ticket would have a 1 in 125,000 chance, just as the raffle tickets do. Whether or not all of the combinations were sold doesn't matter. If you had a ticket for that lottery there would be a 1 in 125,000 chance that it would match one of the 10 winning numbers, regardless of what  other tickets were sold.

                        Surge's avatar - Lottery-063.jpg
                        Ohio
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                        Posted: December 6, 2006, 4:41 am - IP Logged

                        Lottery Odds Calculator Results

                        Total numbers to draw from49
                        Numbers drawn per draw6
                        Total played numbers7
                        Total 6 number combinations of 77
                        Odds of matching 6 of the 7 played1 in 1997688.00

                         

                         

                        Total numbers to draw from49
                        Numbers drawn per draw6
                        Total played numbers8
                        Total 6 number combinations of 828
                        Odds of matching 6 of the 8 played1 in 499422.00

                         

                        It really depends on how many different numbers there are on 2 tickets, if playing only 2 tickets.  You'd still have to buy 28 tickets to get the odds of 1 in 499,422 if you're playing only 8 numbers, etc.  Right?

                        Keep it simple 

                          Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
                          Zeta Reticuli Star System
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                          Posted: December 6, 2006, 11:14 am - IP Logged

                          Ky Floyd 

                          "In the case of the Florida raffle the odds of winning with one ticket are 1 in 125,000 because there will be 10 combinations drawn out of 1,250,000 available combinations."

                           

                          Hello. that's a raffle....in the lotteries we are talking about there is one, and only one combination drawn. Quite a difference. All the difference in the world when it comes to odds on various games.

                          And with that, I give up. As long as people honestly think they cancvut the odds in half with another dollar the lotteries will keep increasing matrixes and make games harder and harder to hit. 

                          For the lottery workers monitoring this thread, I'm sure it's been entertaining. And here we all  thought the "magic bullet" theory about the Kennedy Assassiation was wild! Maybe we should start calling the second dollar the "magic dollar".

                          Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

                          Lep

                          There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

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                            California
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                            Posted: December 6, 2006, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                            Let’s try this explanation on for size:

                            Game:  Mega Millions

                            Odds:  1: 175,711,536

                            I buy 1 ticket:  I have 1 chance in 175,711,536

                                      The odds of me winning are infinitesimal.

                            I buy 2 tickets:   I now have 2 chances in 175,711,536

                                      My chances of winning have doubled.  (I had one chance, now I have two.)
                                      The odds of me winning are still infinitesimal.

                            I buy 3 tickets:  I know have 3 chances in 175,711,536 

                                      My chances of winning have tripled (since the first purchase).

                                      The odds of me winning are still infinitesimal.

                            And so on and so on.

                              Thoth's avatar - binary
                              Findlay, Ohio
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                              Posted: December 6, 2006, 12:13 pm - IP Logged

                              The real problem here is that ODDS are being confused for PROBABILITY and the two are being used interchangeably...

                              Buy 1 Pick 3 combination the ODDS are 1 in 1000 or 1:999. The PROBABILITY is .001 ...written as a fraction, that decimal becomes 1/1000.  As a percent it is .1% (one tenth of one-percent).

                              Buy two different Pick 3 combinations the ODDS are 2 in 1000 or 2:998.  The PROBABILITY IS .002, written as a fraction it equals 2/1000 or 1 in 500 reduced.  Whether reduced are left alone, that percentage of CHANCE to win is exaxtly .2% (two tenths of one percent)

                              Now, if the term "ODDS" is used solely as ones definition or idea of their overall chance to win the game, then I'd definitely have to say the ODDS in this respect are Fractional.

                              Most state lotteries treat odds fractionally as well.  This is why many of them list the "odds" for a no-match boxed Pick 3 win as 1 in 167 instead of 6 in 1000....and the "odds of a double-digit boxed win as 1 in 333 instead of 3 in 1000.

                              How about the standard 6 of 49 lotto game.  I do not know of any state that lists the "True Odds" for this game.  You play 1 combination and your "odds" are listed as 1 in 13,983,816.

                              Is this really your true and exact odds of winning??? Nope, sorry, afraid not.  The real odds are: 720 in 10,068,347,520!!!  These are the real odds of a 6/49 games because there are exactly 10,068,347,520 possible ways to draw exactly 6 balls out of the machine.  There are 720 ways that the 6 you choose can be drawn.  So the fractional odds of 720/10,068,347,520 is always reduced to 1/13,983,816.

                              ~Probability=Odds in Motion~